- Nine games are on the MLB schedule on Monday, August 14, 2023
- Two weeks removed from a no-hitter, Houston’s Framber Valdez faces a light-hitting Miami lineup
- Below, see expert MLB player-prop picks for Monday, August 14
Monday’s MLB schedule sees nine game scattered between 6:40 pm ET and 9:45 pm ET, kicking off with a rare interleague matchup between the Houston Astros (68-50, 35-25 away) and Miami Marlins (61-57, 35-25 home). A handful of aces are on the bump, including the Texas Rangers’ prized deadline acquisition Max Scherzer.
Monday’s player prop picks, however, will
MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, August 14th
|Bryan De La Cruz Under 0.5 Hits (HOU vs MIA)||+180|
|Jon Berti Under 0.5 Hits (HOU vs MIA)||+135|
|Scherzer under 18.5 outs (LAA vs TEX)||-130|
Two of Monday’s prop picks come from the first game on the docket: Astros vs Marlins, while the final play of the day is from the Angels vs Rangers affair, which starts at 8:05 pm ET.
Player-Prop Picks #1 and #2: Berti and De La Cruz Under 0.5 Hits in Astros vs Marlins
It’s no secret that Houston’s starter on Monday, Framber Valdez, has been on the decline in the back-half of the season. The 29-year-old was briefly favored in the AL Cy Young odds – and remains the third-favorite – and was sporting an ERA of 2.16 in early June.
Since then, Valdez’s ERA has ballooned, relatively speaking, to 3.30. He’s been tagged for at least four runs in five of his last seven starts.
That said, he’s still shown the penchant to shutdown the lighter-hitting lineups in baseball – including of course his no-hitter against the Guardians on August 1 – and that’s what he’ll be facing on Monday against the Marlins. Miami sits 20th in the majors in wOBA and 19th in slugging.
Valdez’s pitcher props are off the board at the time of publication, so I’ll have to approach this a little differently. In small sample sizes, Valdez has held both Bryan De La Cruz and Jon Berti hitless. With both players in plus-money to stay under 0.5 total bases, I will sprinkle a unit on each.
Picks: Bryan De La Cruz under 0.5 hits (+180) & Jon Berti under 0.5 hits (+135)
Player-Prop Pick #3:
A disappointment this season with the New York Mets, Max Scherzer is showing signs of turning his season around with Texas after getting dealt at the trade deadline. The three-time Cy Young-winner went seven strong innings in his second start with the team, limiting the MLB-worst Athletics to just one run on three hits.
But his over/under outs on Monday is set at 18.5, meaning he needs to record at least one out in the seventh inning to hit the over.
For the year as a whole, Scherzer has pitched 120.2 innings over 21 starts, meaning he has averaged just over 17 outs per game. In fact, he’s only recorded more than 18 outs in six of his 21 starts this year.
His control has been uncharacteristically poor in 2023. He’s walked multiple batters in each of his past eight starts, and his BB/9 of 2.54 is his second-highest since 2014. He’s not going to be permitted more than a pitch or two over 100, at the very most, and 2023 Max Scherzer hasn’t been efficient enough to get 19 outs in that time frame.
Take the under.
Pick: Scherzer under 18.5 outs (-130)