NBA Public Betting Trends

NBA Public Betting Splits for Monday, June 12

The early public-betting splits for Monday’s Game 5 between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets show the following trends:

• The public is all over Miami to stave off elimination in Denver, putting 84% of moneyline handle on the Heat as +330 underdogs.
• Despite the game total opening at a series-low 208.5 points, the early money is on the under, as it’s getting 82% of total-points handle.

Public’s NBA Betting Record

• April: The public finished strong in the first nine days of April, going 39-20 ATS, but still finished the regular season nine games under .500.
• March:  March was a horrendous month for the public betting the spread in the NBA. The public finished the month just 96-127-6, dropping its total for the year 19 games under .500.
• February: The public went a decent 80-77-6 ATS in the month of February, which included the All-Star break. Their 51.2 win percentage was not enough to be profitable with standard -110 juice, however.
• January: The public had a bit of a comeback month in January, finishing six games above .500 at 109-103-8. But that’s still only a 51.4 win percentage, which is a profitable percentage for sportsbooks when you factor in the juice. 70
• December: December was the public’s worst month of the season to date, going 12 games under .500 (101-113-5). They are now winning at just 50.2% for the season, which is good enough for sportsbooks to make a profit.
• November: The public came back to earth in November, going one game under .500 ATS (103-104-1), but is still hitting at a 57.2% clip for the year.
• October: The public got off to a hot start in October, going 53-38-2 ATS,  a 58.2 win percentage that would have had sportsbooks in the red.

What Are NBA Betting Trends and How Do I Use Them?

Every bet placed on NBA games is tracked and entered in to a system at your sportsbook of choice. Using all those transactions, bettors, analysts and fans alike can track trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any game across the spread, moneyline or over/under total markets.

With that data, you can see the public consensus (as well as where the sharp money is) for every game before placing your bet.

What’s the Difference Between Bet and Money Percentages?

Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.

The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.

Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).

Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.

To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.

This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards.

Noticing Sharp Action While Betting on the NBA

As broken down above, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll notice the sharp action if the figures aren’t similar.

For example, if the Lakers have 86% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 47% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on the Lakers are quite small – or the bets being placed on the opponent are quite large.

A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.

While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.

Know the Trends? Time to Pick an NBA Betting Promo

Now that you’ve looked into NBA public betting trends, you’ll want to make sure you’ve claimed as many sweet sportsbook promos as possible before placing your bets.

Snagging a DraftKings promo code means you can cash in on their sign-up bonus and score daily odds boosts for bigger payouts. FanDuel is another big name in NBA betting, so don’t forget to grab a FanDuel promo code to enhance your betting success.

BetMGM is always dishing out bonus bets, so make sure you sign up with the ‘King of Sportsbooks’ and get the best BetMGM promo code for their $1,000 First Bet Offer. Caesars Sportsbook is no slouch either. Grab the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code, and don’t forget to check out their Quick Picks that feature prebuilt parlays with boosted odds.

Last but not least, the Bet365 bonus code unlocks a Bet $1, Get $200 in Bonus Bets promotion, which you won’t want to miss out on for all your NBA wagers. These huge NBA betting promo codes will help you make the most of your betting experience and boost your chances of bringing home the win.