MLB Picks & Odds for All Games on Monday, Aug. 14, Including Orioles vs Padres, Angels vs Rangers

In a rarity, the Yankees are the biggest underdog on the day, sitting as +192 longshots as they face Max Fried and the league-leading Braves in Atlanta. The lowest total on the board is 7.5 in both Astros vs Marlins and Rays vs Giants, while three games have a total of 9.0 and the rest are in between.

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Pick #1: Orioles vs Padres – Baltimore moneyline (+118)

The struggling Padres head home after a short road trip that saw the team go 1-4 against the Mariners and Diamondbacks. While San Diego has been significantly better at home (30-28) than on the road (26-34), they are facing a Baltimore squad that has the second-most road wins in the majors (37), not too mention the second-best overall record in the majors.

A perceived pitching mismatch between San Diego’s Yu Darvish and Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez is a big part of why the O’s are in plus-money on Monday night. But Rodriguez’s 5.84 ERA isn’t really an accurate portrayal of his season as a whole. The month of May represented a major speedbump for the 23-year-old, who gave up six-plus runs in three of five starts before being sent down to the minors.

Since returning to the big-leagues on August 17, he’s made five starts, giving up an average of 2.2 runs per game over roughly 5.2 innings. In short, he’s looked like the top pitching prospect he is. And those five starts have come against some of the MLB’s top teams: Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees (whom he shutout over 6.1 innings).

On the other side, Yu Darvish is having an up-and-down season, sporting an era just over four. He’s been mostly excellent of late – at least in the box score – going at least six scoreless innings in three of his last five starts. But his WHIP is a concerningly high 1.25 and he’s walked multiple batters in seven of his past eight starts. He’s flirting with danger.

I will take the Orioles at +118 to continue their storybook season against a Padres team that keeps finding ways to lose.

Pick: Orioles moneyline (+118)

Pick #2: Angels vs Rangers – First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-105)

The second pick on Monday is a bet on the starting pitchers in the Angels vs Rangers matchup in Texas. The Rangers will be trotting out Max Scherzer for his third start since being acquired from the Mets. The 39-year-old Scherzer is finally showing signs of age with a 3.88 ERA an 1.14 WHIP. But he was excellent in his most-recent start for the Rangers (one run on three hits over seven innings against the A’s).

A handful of LA players, including Shohei Ohtani, have never faced Scherzer before, and the six who have have combined for a dismal .143 batting average and .349 OPS against the future Hall of Famer.

The promising Patrick Sandoval has seemed to recover from a mid-season doldrums that saw his ERA inflate from 2.93 in early May to 4.57 in late June.  He has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, and just six runs total over that span, while recording at least 15 outs (five full innings of work).

Like Scherzer, Sandoval has also found a lot of success against the bats he’ll be facing on Monday night. In 47 at-bats, the Rangers lineup has a paltry .106 average against the 26-year-old lefty with zero home runs, three doubles, and just two RBI.

If either of these lineups tee off on the opposing starter, it will be a reversal of trends.

Pick: first 5 innings under 4.5 (-105)