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Today’s Best MLB Picks & Player Props (Tuesday, Aug. 15) Including Phillies vs Blue Jays, Orioles vs Padres

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Aug 15, 2023 · 10:42 AM PDT

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler
Aug 8, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) pitches in the second inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
  • Tuesday, August 15, brings a full 15-game MLB schedule with hundreds of MLB player props to choose from
  • The Phillies visit the Blue Jays and have a decided edge on the mound
  • See MLB picks for the day including Orioles vs Padres, Angels vs Rangers, and Orioles vs Padres

Tuesday brings a busy 15-game slate in the MLB with all 30 teams in action. The best bets for the day start in San Diego where the Baltimore Orioles look to make it two in a row over the struggling Padres.

My picks for the day are laid out in the table below. All wagers are one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

 Best MLB Picks & Player Props (Tuesday, Aug. 15)

Pick Odds
Orioles moneyline (vs Padres) +110
Phillies moneyline first 3 innings (vs Blue Jays) -140
Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (vs Rangers) +130

Two of Tuesday’s MLB picks are plus-money swings, including the O’s moneyline. The other is a bet on a perennial Cy Young candidate to outduel an underwhelming pitcher who’s been extremely lucky so far this season.


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Orioles vs Padres Pick: Baltimore moneyline (+110)

It’s taking oddsmakers a while to catch on to just how good the 2023 Baltimore Orioles are. The O’s sit first in the American League (74-45) and are now tied for the most road wins in all of baseball (38) after downing the Padres (4-1) last night in the first of their three-game set.

Today, Baltimore sends Jack Flaherty to the hill opposite San Diego’s Michael Wacha. Once the budding young ace of the Cardinals’ rotation, Flaherty’s career has been mired by injuries and inconsistency. But he still shows flashes of the dominant stuff that led the Cards to draft him in the first round back in 2014. In two starts with the Orioles since the deadline, Flaherty pitched one game (one run on four hits over 6.0 innings during a 6-1 win over Toronto) and touched-up once (three runs on six hits over 5.0 innings in an 8-2 loss to Houston).

He has ample history against the Padres’ lineup and modestly encouraging results. Over 61 total at-bats, San Diego’s lineup is hitting .231 with five doubles and no home runs.

Wacha has a sparkling 2.84 ERA on the season and has been one of the few highlights for a disappointing Padres team this year. But his xERA of 4.20 paints a much different picture. He’s been wildly fortunate this year and his career ERA of 3.97 is a more accurate reflection of who will be toeing the rubber for the Friars today.

Pick: Orioles moneyline (+110)

Phillies vs Blue Jays Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline First 3 Innings (-140)

Tuesday’s game in Toronto features a huge pitching mismatch between the Phillies’ Zach Wheeler and the Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi. While the latter has the better ERA in 2023 (3.53 vs 3.74), he’s extremely lucky that’s the case. Kikuchi’s Expected ERA (xERA) per FanGraphs is well over four (4.26) and he has never previously recorded an ERA under 4.41 in his four-plus-year career.

Wheeler, on the other hand, has been the victim of some rotten luck to be saddled with an ERA in the high threes. His own xERA is 3.32 while his WHIP is a solid 1.11. He’s been a model of consistency for the Phillies in 2023, especially on the road lately. In his last three road starts, he’s scattered four runs across 19.2 innings of work.

Toronto has the more-potent lineup, but the difference isn’t terribly stark. The Jays sit 6th in WRC+ compared to the Phillies in 16th, but Philly is only two spots behind Toronto in wOBA (9th vs 11th) and actually sits ahead of the Blue Jays in slugging (8th vs 12th).

Kikuchi’s luck is going to even out eventually.

Pick: Phillies moneyline first 3 innings (-140)

Angels vs Rangers Pick: Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

After getting shutout by Max Scherzer last night (11-0), the Angels will be thrilled to see Texas trot out Jordan Montgomery for Tuesday’s game. While the former Yankee/Cardinal has a highly respectable 3.38 ERA on the season, he’s vastly outperforming his peripherals. FanGraphs lists his xERA at 4.23 and his xFIP at 4.10.

Ohtani has limited experience against Montgomery, but did manage to crank a double off the lefty in one of his three at-bats. With 41 homers, 20 doubles, and seven triples this year, over half of Ohtani’s 133 hits have been for extra bases. Getting him at significant plus-money to record more than one total base – which could also be accomplished with multiple singles – is my favorite bet on this game.

Pick: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+130)

Season MLB betting record: 2-3 (-0.02 units)

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