- Before making any bets, see which NFL teams are most likely to go over and under their respective win totals
- The over/under probabilities come from my proprietary win probabilities calculation, which spits out each team’s most likely win-loss record for the 2023-24 NFL season
- The teams most likely to go over and under their respective win totals are both from the NFC West
Each offseason I put together my SBD Win Probability calculation and end up with the every team’s probability of finishing the season with each possible win-loss record – every record from 0-17 to 17-0. Not only do we get a look at their most probable win-loss record for the upcoming season, but it also gives us each team’s probability to go over/under their respective NFL win total.
If you tailed each team’s more likely outcome (over or under) based on my calculation, you would have gone 20-11! If you just took the most probable outcomes, you would have gone 8-3. If you stuck with outcomes with a probability of at least 66.7%, you would have been 5-0. This metric has been very profitable in the past and is back with its predictions for the 2023-24 NFL season.
I have rounded up the teams my metric says are most likely to go over and under their respective win totals below. If you want to dive into the full process, check out our NFL record predictions.
Teams Most Likely to Go Over Their NFL Win Total
Below are the three teams most likely to go over their win total (with their NFL win total in brackets):
- Arizona Cardinals (4.5)
- Houston Texans (5.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (6.5)
According to my SBD Win Probabilities calculation, the Arizona Cardinals are the team most likely to go over their NFL win total, which is set at 4.5. DraftKings has the best odds to bet the Cardinals’ over at +100.
Arizona is not listed as the favorite in any of their 17 games this season, but they are a two-point underdog or less in three of them and less than a five-point underdog in five more. This isn’t the calculation saying the Cardinals will be a good team this year, just that they’ll win five or more games.
The Texans, whose win total has moved from 5.5 to 6.5 at most sportsbooks, are the next most likely team to go over their win total. You can still find them at 5.5 at BetMGM for -150 odds. The Rams are next with a 67.4% chance to go over 6.5 wins. You can find this bet at FanDuel at +110 odds. If you haven’t signed up at FanDuel yet, be sure to claim the best FanDuel promo code before registering.
Teams Most Likely to Go Under Their NFL Win Total
Below are the three teams most likely to go under their win total (with their NFL win total in brackets):
- San Francisco 49ers (11.5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (11.5)
I want to clarify once again that this metric is not suggesting these teams will be bad. It is simply saying their win total is too high. According to the calculation, San Francisco is the team most likely to go under their win total. The Niners are favorites in 16 of 17 games this season, but they are only favored by three points or less in ten of those games. Those are close to coin-flip games based on the spread. That’s too many close games for a team whose win total is set at 11.5.
The best place to make this bet is DraftKings, where you’ll get -155 odds. If you’re new to DraftKings, we have a great DraftKings promo code for new users.
The next two teams most likely to go under their respective win totals are the Eagles and Bengals, whose win totals are also set at 11.5. While both teams are projected to be good this season, their win total is just too high for teams who face pretty tough schedules and therefore aren’t laying many points often this year.