- The Big 12 Title odds favor Texas over Oklahoma and Kansas State
- Last season’s National Championship runner-up, TCU, is a huge longshot
- Read below for 2023 Big 12 Championship odds and predictions
According to the 2023 Big 12 Title odds, the Texas Longhorns are expected to win their first conference title since 2009. Steve Sarkisian’s team is listed as +100 favorites to win the Big 12 conference this college football season over the likes of Oklahoma (+340) and Kansas State (+500).
Sonny Dykes’ TCU was one of the best stories of the 2022 college football season, but oddsmakers are projecting the Horned Frogs to take a big step back this year. However, newcomers BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are even heavier longshots as they transition from the Group of 5.
Let’s analyze the Big 12 Title odds and provide you with our best bets for the conference.
2023 Big 12 Title Odds
Texas is priced as +100 favorites in the Big 12 Title odds, meaning the Longhorns have 50% implied probability to win the conference.
Odds as of August 15, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting sites for Big 12 betting.
Longhorns Might Actually be Back
In the eyes of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas, it’s Texas and then everyone in the Big 12 conference this season. Despite having not won a conference title since 2009, the Longhorns are +100 favorites to win the Big title in their final year before departing for the SEC.
Not only is Texas favored to win the Big 12, but they also have +320 odds to make the College Football Playoff and +1500 odds to win it. Steve Sarkisian’s team returns 15 starters from the team that went 8-5 during the 2022-23 CFB season.
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) August 15, 2023
Quarterback Quinn Ewrers returns after throwing for 2,177 yards and 15 TDs last season. He’ll have one of his favorite targets back in Xavier Worthy, who had 760 receiving yards and 9 TDs in 2022-23. However, the Longhorns must overcome the loss of their leading rusher Bijan Robinson (NFL).
A big reason Texas is the clear favorite in the Big 12 is the continuity of the offensive line. The entire starting five from the 2022 season is returning, with each player averaging 20.1 starts in burnt orange. The Longhorns had an excellent run game last season, averaging 188.2 yards per contest on the ground.
Texas finally living up to expectations and winning a Big 12 title will likely depend on Ewers taking another step, the defense continuing its strong play, and other players stepping up in place of Robinson. Texas went 0-3 last season in games in which they were held under three yards per carry on the ground.
Oklahoma, Kansas State & Other Contenders
If it isn’t Texas winning the Big 12 in 2023, oddsmakers project Oklahoma (+340) and Kansas State (+500) have the next-best chance of taking the crown. The Sooners are looking to bounce back from a disappointing 6-7 campaign, while the Wildcats are coming off an impressive 10-4 season that saw them win the Big 12 title.
Even though KSU had a much stronger season last year, it isn’t hard to see why the Sooners have better odds in 2023. OU returns its top offensive weapon in QB Dillon Gabriel, plus 78% of their returning production on defense, which ranks 21st in the country,
QB Dillon Gabriel and OC Jeff Lebby are entering their second season together at Oklahoma.
🏈 62.7 CMP%
🏈 3,168 yds
🏈 25 TDs
They had success last season, but Gabriel still thinks there is plenty of room to improve.
Could Gabriel lead the Sooners to a Big 12… pic.twitter.com/B7zZooidKc
— Next Up with Adam Breneman (@NextUpWithAdam) August 15, 2023
Kansas State does return QB Will Howard, but the Wildcats must overcome the loss of their top offensive player Deuce Vaughn, who rushed for 1,392 yards and 18 TDs in 2022. Defensively, the Wildcats have lost leading tacklers Drake Cheatum, Josh Hayes, and Julius Brent.
TCU is another team dealing with major turnover, hence why they are significant longshots despite reaching the CFP title game last year. Sonny Dykes’ club will field 11 new starters this season, having to replace superstars Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston, and Kendra Miller.
2023 Big 12 Championship Predictions
The Big 12 conference is one of the harder ones to predict in the college football odds. Various teams have a chance to win due to the balance in the conference, but Texas certainly has the talent — at least on paper — to finally get over the hump.
When you look at recent Texas recruiting classes, you can see the Longhorns ranked 3rd in 2023, 5th in 2022, and 15th in 2021. The 2023 season might provide the perfect storm for Sarkisian’s team, with no Big 12 teams appearing in the top 10 of the preseason AP Poll.
Quinn Ewers has been rising in the Heisman odds, with reports suggesting he’s become more vocal and focused. His talent is the primary reason we’re backing Texas at plus-money to win the title, but don’t sleep on OU and their defense in year two under Venables.
- Picks: Texas to Win (+100), Oklahoma Over 9.5 Wins (+100)