10 Wild Super Bowl ATS & Over/Under Trends You Need to Know

NFL team trends can be a lot of fun. They can also be a great help in making bets, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. The 2023 Super Bowl sees the Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Sunday, February 12.

Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 57 but aren’t sure if you want to bet them to cover the spread. STOP! A very strong Super Bowl ATS trend suggests this is an awful idea—so does the very small spread.

Do not lock in any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and over/under Super Bowl trends. (Also strongly recommend you check in frequently with the Super Bowl odds as well …)

1) The Team Who Wins the Super Bowl Almost Always Covers the Spread

Simply put, just the pick the winner of the Super Bowl. The team who wins the game is 47-7-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history.

Only seven teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

• Rams in Super Bowl 56 (-4.5)
• Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
• Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
• Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
• 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7)

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

Last year’s Super Bowl went against this trend, as the Rams beat the Bengals 23-20, but did not cover the spread as 4.5-point favorites. It is the first time we have seen a team win the Super Bowl and not cover the spread in 13 years.

So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite (Eagles) to win, bet them against the spread (-1.5 currently). If you like the underdog (Chiefs), don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline (+105 right now).

2) Super Bowl Underdogs Have Been Hot Against the Spread Lately

Underdogs have been hot in the last 20 Super Bowls, going 15-6 against the spread in that time. If you had bet $100 on each underdog to cover the spread in the last 21 Super Bowls, you would have profited $763.50.

The six favorites to cover the spread in the last 20 Super Bowls include:

1. Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
2. Patriots in Super Bowl 53
3. Patriots in Super Bowl 51
4. Packers in Super Bowl 45
5. Colts in Super Bowl 41
6. Steelers in Super Bowl 40

You can take a deeper look at Super Bowl betting data in our Super Bowl point spread history.

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The Bengals added to this trend last year when they covered as 4.5-point underdogs against the Rams.

The Chiefs are 1.5-point underdogs in the 2023 Super Bowl when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

3) Points Are Scored in Super Bowls with the AFC West

The last three Super Bowls featuring an AFC West team went under:

• The Chiefs and Buccaneers came up well short in Super Bowl 55
• The Chiefs and 49ers only fell a couple points shy of their 53.5 total in Super Bowl 54 (52 points scored)
• The Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5 – in Super Bowl 50

You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West have reeled off eight straight overs, making the over 8-3 in the last 11. None of those teams were the Chiefs, however.

The total for Super Bowl 57 is sitting at 50.5 right now, having moved up a point from opening at 49.5.

4) Small Super Bowl Spreads Have Meant Lots of Points

With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense and trying to steal a possession, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.

The last ten Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

Recent Super Bowls with Spreads of 3 or Less

As you can see, the over has hit in six of them. But the more recent trend has said under in the last three.

Super Bowl 57 sees the Eagles favored by just 1.5 points. The total is set at 50.5.

5) Dogs Show Up in Super Bowls Played in Arizona

Arizona has only played host to the Super Bowl three times. But we have never seen a favorite cover the spread in any of those three. Here’s a closer look at those games:

• Super Bowl 49: Patriots won outright as 1-point underdogs against the Seahawks
• Super Bowl 42: Giants won outright as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots
• Super Bowl 30: Steelers lose to the Cowboys but cover the spread as 13.5-point underdogs

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This makes underdogs 3-0 against the spread in Arizona-hosted Super Bowls. As you know, Super Bowl 57 will be played in Glendale, Arizona and the Chiefs are listed as underdogs.

6) Female-Led Super Bowl Halftime Shows Call for Points

With Rihanna set to take the stage in Super Bowl 57, I looked back to the last handful of Super Bowls with female-led halftime shows. Three of the last four of them have seen the total go over. Here’s a look at those four games:

• Super Bowl 54: San Francisco and Kansas City combined for 52 points, falling just shy of the over with an over/under of 53.5 when J-Lo and Shakira performed at halftime
• Super Bowl 51: New England and Atlanta combined for 64 points, going over the total (57.5) when Lady Gaga performed at halftime
• Super Bowl 49: New England and Seattle combined for 52 points, going over the total (47.5) when Katy Perry performed at halftime
• Super Bowl 47: Baltimore and San Francisco combined for 65 points, going over the total (48) when Beyonce performed at halftime

This year’s Super Bowl has an over/under set at 50.5.

7) NFC Can’t Cover Super Bowl Spreads as Favorites

This trend actually goes back further than you’d (likely) expect. The AFC has often served as the favorite in the Super Bowl since the turn of the century. Looking to the last ten Super Bowls where the NFC was listed as the betting favorite, we land all the way back in 1996.

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Here are the ten times the NFC has been favored in that span:

• Super Bowl 30, where the Cowboys failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites against the Steelers
• Super Bowl 31, where the Packers and Patriots spread pushed
• Super Bowl 32, where the Packers lost outright as 11-point favorites against the Broncos
• Super Bowl 34, where the Rams and Titans spread pushed
• Super Bowl 36, where the Rams lost outright to the Patriots as 14-point favorites
• Super Bowl 45, where the Packers DID cover as 3-point favorites against the Steelers
• Super Bowl 47, where the 49ers lost outright to the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites
• Super Bowl 49, where the Seahawks lost outright to the Patriots as 1-point favorites
• Super Bowl 50, where the Panthers lost outright to the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites
• Super Bowl 56, where the Rams won but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites against the Bengals

As you see, they’re just 1-7-2 against the spread in their last ten Super Bowls when serving as the favorite. The NFC will have another chance to prove they can cover a Super Bowl spread as the favorite, with the Eagles listed between 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.

8) Points Are Scored When Top Seeds Meet in Super Bowl

Dating back to 1985, we have seen the top seeds from both conferences make the Super Bowl nine times. In six of those instances, the game total has gone over:

• Super Bowl 52: Eagles and Patriots combined for 74 points, going well over the total (49)
• Super Bowl 50: Panthers and Broncos only combine for 34 points, going under the total (43)
• Super Bowl 49: Patriots and Seahawks combine for 52, going over the total (47.5)
• Super Bowl 48: Seahawks and Broncos combine for 51, going over the total (47.5)
• Super Bowl 44: Saints and Colts only combine for 48, going under the total (57)
• Super Bowl 28: Cowboys and Bills only combine for 43, going under the total (50.5)
• Super Bowl 26: Washington and Buffalo combine for 61, going over the total (49)
• Super Bowl 24: 49ers and Broncos combine for 65, going over the total (48)

The Chiefs and Eagles will be the tenth Super Bowl matchup between top seeds since 1985. The total is set at 50.5.

9) Favorites Like FOX Super Bowls

FOX has had the broadcasting rights to the Super Bowl every third year since 1999—they also broadcasted the Super Bowl in 1997. As of late, FOX has seen favorites cover the spread in their Super Bowls.

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Here’s a closer look at the last four Super Bowls on FOX:

• Super Bowl 54: Chiefs cover as 1.5-point favorites against the 49ers
• Super Bowl 51: Patriots cover as 3-point favorites against the Falcons
• Super Bowl 48: Seahawks upset the Broncos
• Super Bowl 45: Packers cover as 3-point favorites against the Steelers

As you can see, favorites have covered in three of the last four. The Eagles will serve as the favorite in Super Bowl 57. Another FOX-related trend that suits the Eagles is that the NFC is 4-2 against the spread in the last six Super Bowls on FOX.

10) NFC East Teams Have Produced Low-Scoring Super Bowls

The NFC East has represented the NFC in the Super Bowl seven times since 1994. In those games, we have not seen the total go over very often. Here’s a closer look:

• Super Bowl 52: Eagles and Patriots combine for 74 points, going way over the total (49)
• Super Bowl 46: Giants and Patriots combine for just 38 points, going well under the total (53)
• Super Bowl 42: Giants and Patriots combine for just 31 points, going well under the total (55)
• Super Bowl 39: Patriots and Eagles combine for 45 points, going just under the total (46.5)
• Super Bowl 35: Ravens and Giants combine for 41 points, going over the total (33)
• Super Bowl 30: Cowboys and Steelers combine for 44 points, going under the total (51)
• Super Bowl 28: Cowboys and Bills combine for 43 points, going under the total (50.5)

The under is 5-2 in the last seven Super Bowls featuring an NFC East team. The Eagles, of course, reside in the NFC East.

11) Strong Rushing Performances Lead to ATS Victories

Because I like you, I’m throwing in one more trend! But this isn’t one that necessarily points to one side or the other prior to the game, since it is based off performance in the Super Bowl.

Nevertheless, here it is: the team who rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl is 39-14-3 against the spread.

Last year, we saw the Bengals rush for 79 yards versus the Rams’ 43 yards on the ground, and Cincinnati covered the spread. The 49ers in Super Bowl 54 are the only team in the last five years to rush for more yards than their opponent and not cover the spread.

The Eagles finished the regular season with the fifth-most rush yards in the NFL, and have rushed for 268 and 148 yards in their two playoff games. The Chiefs ranked 20th in rushing yards and have totaled 186 rushing yards in their two playoff games.

If you liked this one, check out our straight up Super Bowl trends. If you’re new to betting and want to join the (likely) thousands of others who will dive into a new sportsbook for the Super Bowl, be sure to read the following first:

• Super Bowl Betting Promotions
• Super Bowl Betting Apps
• Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
• Types of Super Bowl Bets
• Super Bowl Prop Bets Explained