15 Crazy Super Bowl Betting Trends You Don't Want to Miss

Before you make your final decision on betting either the Kansas City Chiefs or Philadelphia Eagles for Super Bowl 57, make sure you’ve done your research!

A good starting point will be ensuring you know the 2023 Super Bowl odds. As you move your way down that list of research, eventually you’ll want to know these mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl trends.

1) Teams Wearing White Jerseys Have Edge in Super Bowl

Super Bowl trend

This is one of the strongest, yet most obscure, Super Bowl trends you will find! The team wearing their white jerseys has won 15 of the last 18 Super Bowls now.

The only three teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 17 years without wearing their white jerseys were the:

Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45
Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52
Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54

Last year’s designated home team, the Cincinnati Bengals, chose to wear their black jerseys and they ultimately lost to the Rams.

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This year, the Eagles followed suit in choosing not to wear their white jerseys, opting instead for their green jerseys. The bad news is they’re putting themselves on the wrong side of this trend. The good news is Philadelphia is one of the three teams to defy this trend, beating the Patriots in Super Bowl 52 while wearing green as well.

2) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage in Super Bowl History

Super Bowl trend

Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. Entering Super Bowl 57, favorites are 37-19 in the championship game.

You can see who the favorite was each year with our Super Bowl odds history.

The Eagles are currently 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs in the 2023 Super Bowl.

This trend has recently reversed, though …

3) Underdogs Have the Edge in Recent Super Bowls

Super Bowl trend

Underdogs have had a lot of success in the Super Bowl lately. Looking to the last 11, underdogs have won seven of them outright.

The Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams who have won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last 11 years —New England did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.

The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to win the 2023 Super Bowl, making the Kansas City Chiefs the underdogs. Bettors are currently siding with the underdog Chiefs, as the NFL public betting trends shows the majority of the moneyline bets and money are on Kansas City.

4) Super Bowl Experience Doesn’t Matter

Super Bowl trend

So much for experience matters, right? The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has gone on to win ten of the last 16 Super Bowls.

Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs have played in Super Bowls somewhat recently. Thanks to the Chiefs being very recent – Super Bowl 55 – they have the clear advantage in terms of Super Bowl-experienced players. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andrew Wylie, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, Frank Clark, and Harrison Butker are some of the names who are still on the Chiefs roster now from their Super Bowl 55 run.

The Eagles last Super Bowl appearance came in 2018, when they beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 52. While there are some names still around from that team, their roster looks quite different. Jason Kelce, Isaac Seumalo (backup in 2018), Lane Johnson, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, and Jake Elliott are the only players left.

Philadelphia will be the team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players, giving them the advantage with this trend.

5) AFC Wins Super Bowls in February

Super Bowl trend

Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.

The AFC hopes the game remains in February moving forward, as they are 12-8 in Super Bowls played in the month of February.

Super Bowl 57 will take place Sunday, February 12th.

6) AFC West Teams in the Super Bowl Means Upset

Super Bowl trend

Underdogs have won the recent Super Bowls that feature a team from the AFC West – Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, or Los Angeles Chargers.

Here’s a look at the last seven Super Bowls that have included a team from the AFC West:

Super Bowl 55 (Buccaneers beat Chiefs as 3-point dogs)
Super Bowl 54 (Chiefs beat 49ers as 1.5-point favorites)
Super Bowl 50 (Broncos beat Panthers as 4.5-point dogs)
Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks beat Broncos as 2-point dogs)
Super Bowl 37 (Bucs beat Raiders as 4-point dogs)
Super Bowl 33 (Broncos beat Falcons as 7.5-point favorites)
Super Bowl 32 (Broncos beat Packers as 11-point dogs)

The Chiefs overcame this trend three years ago against the 49ers, winning as a favorite in a Super Bowl that included an AFC West team, but lost to the Bucs as favorites the next year. They serve as the underdog in Super Bowl 57 now too.

7) NFC Likes Super Bowls in Domes

Super Bowl trend

The NFC has enjoyed when Super Bowls are played indoors. They are now 16-5 when the game is held indoors, as we have most recently seen the Rams beat the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, the Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl 53 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and the Eagles beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 52 at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Super Bowl 57 will also be played indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

8) NFC Comes Out on Top in Super Bowls Between Top Seeds

Super Bowl trend

We have seen the top seeds from each conference reach the Super Bowl 13 times. The NFC has won nine of those 13 meetings. Here’s a closer look:

Super Bowl 11: #1 Raiders beat #1 Vikings
Super Bowl 12: #1 Cowboys beat #1 Broncos
Super Bowl 16: #1 49ers beat #1 Bengals
Super Bowl 18: #1 Raiders beat #1 Washington
Super Bowl 19: #1 49ers beat #1 Dolphins
Super Bowl 24: #1 49ers beat #1 Broncos
Super Bowl 26: #1 Washington beat #1 Bills

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Super Bowl 28: #1 Cowboys beat #1 Bills
Super Bowl 44: #1 Saints beat #1 Colts
Super Bowl 48: #1 Seahawks beat #1 Broncos
Super Bowl 49: #1 Patriots beat #1 Seahawks
Super Bowl 50: #1 Broncos beat #1 Panthers
Super Bowl 52: #1 Eagles beat #1 Patriots

Two of the AFC’s wins have come in the last three meetings between top seeds. But prior to Super Bowl 49, you have to go all the way back to Super Bowl 18 to find the next AFC win. Super Bowl 57 also features the top seeds from each conference.

9) QBs Who Win NFL MVP Don’t Win the Super Bowl

Super Bowl trend

Only six quarterbacks have won the MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season:

Kurt Warner (1999-2000)
Brett Favre (1996-97)
Steve Young (1994-95)
Joe Montana (1989-90)
Terry Bradshaw (1978-79)
Bart Starr (1966-67)

Fun fact: all but Favre also won the Super Bowl MVP in the big game.

However, since Warner completed the feat in 2000, QBs who have reached the Super Bowl after winning the NFL MVP that season are 0-8 in the big game. These regular season MVP, Super Bowl losers include:

Tom Brady in 2017-18 when he lost to the Eagles
Matt Ryan in 2015-16 when he lost to the Patriots
Cam Newton in 2015-16 when he lost to the Broncos
Peyton Manning in 2013-14 when he lost to the Seahawks
Manning again in 2009-10 when he lost to the Saints
Tom Brady in 2007-08 when he lost to the Giants
Rich Gannon in 2002-03 when he lost to the Bucs
Kurt Warner in 2001-02 when he lost to the Pats

You can make it 0-9 if you want to include all NFL MVPs, which would also throw Shaun Alexander in there, who won NFL MVP in 2005 and his Seahawks lost the Super Bowl to the Steelers in 2006.

Patrick Mahomes was just named the 2022-23 NFL MVP at the NFL Honors on Thursday night.

10) Cheffers Is Bad News for Chiefs?

Super Bowl trend

The NFL named Carl Cheffers as the head referee for Super Bowl 57. This will be Cheffers third Super Bowl in his career. Here’s a look at the last two:

Super Bowl 55 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers upset the Kansas City Chiefs as 3-point underdogs
Super Bowl 51 – New England Patriots completed the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history, beating the Falcons in overtime as 3-point favorites

As you can see, the Chiefs are 0-1 in Super Bowls officiated by Cheffers. Small sample size? Yes. Worth noting? Also yes.

11) NFC Has Not Been a Good Super Bowl Favorite Lately

Super Bowl trend

The NFC has not been favored in many Super Bowls lately, thanks to the Chiefs and Patriots dominance over the last handful of years. However, they are serving as the favorites again in Super Bowl 57, but have not come through when favored lately.

The last four times the NFC was favored to win the Super Bowl are as follows:

Super Bowl 56 when the Rams beat the Bengals as 4.5-point favorites
Super Bowl 50 when the Panthers lost to the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites
Super Bowl 49 when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots as 1-point favorites
Super Bowl 47 when the 49ers lost to the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites

The NFC is 1-3 in their last three Super Bowls when listed as the favorite. They are serving as the favorite again in Super Bowl 57, as the Eagles are laying 1.5 points.

12) Arizona Super Bowls Favor NFC

Another one with a somewhat small sample size here, as we have only seen three Super Bowls played in the state of Arizona. Here are those three:

Super Bowl 49 – New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl 42 – New York Giants beat the New England Patriots
Super Bowl 30 – Dallas Cowboys beat the Pittsburgh Steelers

As you can see, the NFC is 2-1 in these games. The Super Bowl is headed back to Arizona in 2023 and the Eagles will represent the NFC.

13) Dogs Come Out in Arizona

Staying with Super Bowls played in Arizona, underdogs also have the slight edge.

Super Bowl 49 – New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl 42 – New York Giants beat the New England Patriots
Super Bowl 30 – Dallas Cowboys beat the Pittsburgh Steelers

Underdogs are 2-1 in the three games played. While the Eagles benefit from the last trend, it is the Chiefs who have the edge in this one as the underdog.

14) AFC Prefers Female-Led Halftime Shows

Super Bowl trend

With Rihanna preparing to perform at the Super Bowl 57 halftime show, I took a look at what we have seen from the past female-led halftime shows:

Super Bowl 54 – Chiefs beat the 49ers
Super Bowl 51 – Patriots beat the Falcons
Super Bowl 49 – Patriots beat the Seahawks
Super Bowl 47 – Ravens beat the 49ers
Super Bowl 46 – Giants beat the Patriots

You’ll notice the AFC has won four of the last five, which includes each of the last four.

15) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing in Super Bowl

Super Bowl trend

*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52; this is why there is a missing win/loss.

Apparently it’s true when you hear the announcers say, “it doesn’t matter how they got here”. The team with the worse regular season record is 13-3 in the last 17 Super Bowls.

The 2021 Los Angeles Rams (Super Bowl 56), 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only three teams in the last 17 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.

Sadly, this trend is meaningless for Super Bowl 57, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles enter the Super Bowl with identical 14-3 regular season records.

16) The AFC Has the Edge in Recent Super Bowls

Super Bowl trend

This trend held a lot more weight two years ago, prior to the NFC winning back-to-back Super Bowls in the past two years. Nevertheless, the NFC teams to win a Super Bowl in the last ten years are the

Los Angeles Rams, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 in Super Bowl 56
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55
Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48
Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52

The Kansas City Chiefs are the AFC champions, and will look to get their conference back on track in the 2023 Super Bowl.

The Falcons, Panthers, 49ers (twice), Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams in this timeframe.

If you enjoyed these fun Super Bowl trends, check out our ATS and Over/Under trends for the Super Bowl. If you’re new to betting and find yourself wanting to back any of the trends above, see the following pages for help getting started:

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Matt McEwan

After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.