Earlier this week, we received industry-shaking news that Penn National was moving on from Barstool Sportsbook in favor of a deal with ESPN to launch ESPN Bet. The new ESPN branded sports betting app will take over as Penn’s online sportsbook. While this announcement has certainly been successful in ruling the news cycle this week, that doesn’t mean the sportsbook will be successful.

Penn has likely learned from their Barstool Sportsbook experiment that brand isn’t enough to make a sportsbook successful. Using Dave Portnoy, his Barstool brand, and riding the backs of the other personalities in-house led to a market share of less than 5%. If they simply plan to carry over what was Barstool Sportsbook and just change the branding to ESPN and their personalities, I fear they’ll suffer a similar fate to their first attempt.

While there are some key differences between Barstool Sports and ESPN—much bigger and more diverse sports audience at ESPN, no more regulatory / responsible gaming concerns with ESPN, nationally broadcasted sports channels to market their product on etc.—they still need to ensure they are offering a quality product in their sports betting app, which they were not previously, if they are going to come anywhere close to their lofty goals/expectations (20% online sports betting market share).

So, let’s focus on the product here. What makes a good sports betting app? I’d love to hear from all of you as well! After all, if Penn gets this right with ESPN Bet, we (as bettors) all win. Not only will we have a quality sportsbook to use, but it will also force their competition to innovate as well. From my eyes, we can boil it down to four things every good sports betting app needs:

Quality Bonuses for New & Existing Bettors

In my opinion, one of the most important parts of acquiring and retaining bettors is by offering quality bonuses. I appreciate Penn is running a business here and cannot simply give money away all the time. The good news is free money is not the only attractive bonus.

Let’s start at the beginning with a good signup offer. The standard in the industry seems to be some sort of first bet match up to $1,000 or some sort of bet/get in the realm of 5/150. (Some might offer as much as $200 when we get to NFL kickoff.) However, when Barstool Sportsbook relaunched with their upgraded app in July, they changed the mechanics of their new user bonus to a 100% deposit match up to $1,000.

I hope they move away from this. If you read the T&Cs of this offer, which are seen in the picture above, you’ll see that: (a) it’s not a true deposit match since the matched money get stored in a “bonus fund;” (b) the bonus fund will be released at a 5% cashback rate, meaning you would have to risk $20,000 in order to unlock the full $1,000; and (c) you only have 30 days to unlock the funds before they disappear.

With that knowledge, this isn’t a great offer and I hope Penn decides to up their ante with ESPN Bet. I fear this offer will only confuse and frustrate bettors, potentially leading to poor retention. Go with a nice bet/get to give new users some free bets to play with as they test out your sportsbook.

Once they get users in the door, you have to offer them some quality all user bonuses. Again, appreciate this is a business, not a charity. We all love the FanDuel Spread the Love and DraftKings Hammer the Over bonuses that come along, but it’s free money and there’s a reason these offers are so infrequent. So how can ESPN Bet keep users coming back with bonuses that aren’t free money?

While daily odds boosts can be attractive if done well, they should also look to what DraftKings and Bet365 have done in offering same-game parlay profit boosts. The former offers an SGP boost up to 100%, which you have to load up seven legs to get the full value but even a three-leg SGP gets boosted 20%, on a daily basis throughout the summer for MLB and each day of the week with an NFL game once we get to September. The latter offers a straight 30% SGP boost, minimum three legs and +100 odds for the full SGP, on select games each day but sometimes leaves it open for you to decide which game to use it on.

These are attractive bonuses for many bettors and the operator too—I’m sure I’m not the first person to say parlays of any nature are not the smartest bets. Whatever the specific bonus/mechanics are ESPN Bet decides to go with, the important part is offering them.

It would also be smart for Penn to run a pre-registration period ahead of their expected November launch, similar to what we generally see when new states are preparing to launch online sports betting. Get users in the door early and have them excited for your launch.

User Experience in ESPN Bet App Needs to Be Smooth

I have had many new bettors, and even some seasoned bettors, tell me they have given up on a specific sportsbook due to a poor user interface / experience in the app. Here are the features I believe make a sports betting app smooth:

• Quick registration and login

Many people are still skeptical about giving away their info, especially credit card info, online. Hopefully ESPN Bet can tap into its other suite of paid products to help speed up the KYC (know your consumer) process.

• Quick loading times

One sportsbook in particular had a pretty slow app, which they have fixed now, and the result is a major gap between them and the top players in the industry when it comes to market share. ESPN Bet cannot afford to be anything less than stellar. The good news is theScore Bet, which uses the technology Penn used to upgrade the Barstool Sportsbook app and will likely be used for ESPN Bet, loads very quickly from page to page.

• Easy to navigate

Similar to the above, the new Barstool Sportsbook app was pretty easy to navigate. ESPN Bet will need to continue to build on that and ensure bettors know how to jump from NFL to NBA with one quick tap.

• Organize betting markets appropriately in the app

While FanDuel does a lot of things well, this is potentially their biggest weakness. Trying to find a specific player prop in their app can be quite difficult at times. You may end up scrolling through countless folds of player props, because they’re each listed individually instead of grouped together, only to realize you missed the one you were looking for because it was squeezed between two different types of player props.

DraftKings is the best for this and BetMGM isn’t too far behind. When it comes to theScore Bet, they tend to lump all their player props into one category as well. I hope they take a page out of DraftKings’ book and organize their markets in a clean and efficient way.

Ensure “Table Stakes” Features of Sportsbook Are Covered

I’m going to keep this section concise. When I speak of “table stakes” features of a sportsbook, I am referring to the following (in no particular order):

• Offer a wide range of betting markets, both in terms of sports and the types of bets within each sport
• Provide bettors with the opportunity to ladder their player props & bet alternate lines for spreads and totals
• Allow bettors to parlay all non-correlated events, especially cross-sport parlays
• Offer a complete and relatively open same-game parlay feature for all major events
• Offer quality live betting options
• Keep lines/vig competitive in the market
• Open betting lines in a timely fashion, specifically week-to-week NFL lines and futures for all sports
• Don’t limit casual bettors

Did I miss anything?

Offer Bettors Something Unique

Everyone goes to DraftKings to bet MLB H+R+R (Hits + Runs + RBIs) props because they’re the only ones that offer this market. FanDuel has become known as the place for laddering thanks to all the opportunities they provide. Even BetRivers is known to allow you to remove the hook and bet -1 run lines and puck lines.

ESPN Bet needs to own something. Allow bettors to unlock their creativity and passion for sports / sports betting at your sportsbook and they will continue to come back. I have some ideas on what that could be if Penn wants to write me a check next!

Thankfully, Penn has some time to work on the product before it goes to the market, with an expected launch date for ESPN Bet being by Thanksgiving. With this much money being spent, I feel optimistic we (bettors) will see a lot of the features above when we have the pleasure of logging into the ESPN Bet app for the first time!

Have I missed anything? What else do you look for in a good sportsbook?

The post Penn Attempts to Leverage ESPN Brand for Its Online Sportsbook; What Will it Take to Be Successful? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Each offseason I put together my SBD Win Probability calculation and end up with the every team’s probability of finishing the season with each possible win-loss record – every record from 0-17 to 17-0. Not only do we get a look at their most probable win-loss record for the upcoming season, but it also gives us each team’s probability to go over/under their respective NFL win total.

If you tailed each team’s more likely outcome (over or under) based on my calculation, you would have gone 20-11! If you just took the most probable outcomes, you would have gone 8-3. If you stuck with outcomes with a probability of at least 66.7%, you would have been 5-0. This metric has been very profitable in the past and is back with its predictions for the 2023-24 NFL season.

I have rounded up the teams my metric says are most likely to go over and under their respective win totals below. If you want to dive into the full process, check out our NFL record predictions.

Teams Most Likely to Go Over Their NFL Win Total

Below are the three teams most likely to go over their win total (with their NFL win total in brackets):

1. Arizona Cardinals (4.5)
2. Houston Texans (5.5)
3. Los Angeles Rams (6.5)

According to my SBD Win Probabilities calculation, the Arizona Cardinals are the team most likely to go over their NFL win total, which is set at 4.5. DraftKings has the best odds to bet the Cardinals’ over at +100.

Arizona is not listed as the favorite in any of their 17 games this season, but they are a two-point underdog or less in three of them and less than a five-point underdog in five more. This isn’t the calculation saying the Cardinals will be a good team this year, just that they’ll win five or more games.

The Texans, whose win total has moved from 5.5 to 6.5 at most sportsbooks, are the next most likely team to go over their win total. You can still find them at 5.5 at BetMGM for -150 odds. The Rams are next with a 67.4% chance to go over 6.5 wins. You can find this bet at FanDuel at +110 odds. If you haven’t signed up at FanDuel yet, be sure to claim the best FanDuel promo code before registering.

Teams Most Likely to Go Under Their NFL Win Total

Below are the three teams most likely to go under their win total (with their NFL win total in brackets):

1. San Francisco 49ers (11.5)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11.5)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11.5)

I want to clarify once again that this metric is not suggesting these teams will be bad. It is simply saying their win total is too high. According to the calculation, San Francisco is the team most likely to go under their win total. The Niners are favorites in 16 of 17 games this season, but they are only favored by three points or less in ten of those games. Those are close to coin-flip games based on the spread. That’s too many close games for a team whose win total is set at 11.5.

The best place to make this bet is DraftKings, where you’ll get -155 odds. If you’re new to DraftKings, we have a great DraftKings promo code for new users.

The next two teams most likely to go under their respective win totals are the Eagles and Bengals, whose win totals are also set at 11.5. While both teams are projected to be good this season, their win total is just too high for teams who face pretty tough schedules and therefore aren’t laying many points often this year.

The post See the Teams Most Likely to Go Over & Under Their NFL Win Total in 2023 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We are just mere days away from the 2023 NFL preseason kicking off, which means we are just over a month away from kicking the real season off! One of the biggest questions football fans, specifically football bettors, want answered in the next month is, who has the easiest and toughest schedules this season – in other words, 2023 NFL strength of schedule.

As I do every offseason, I have used my proprietary calculation for NFL strength of schedule to rank all 32 teams’ schedules for the upcoming 2023 season. You can see the full breakdown with an explanation on my method by clicking through the link in the last sentence, but I’ll give you the major takeaways below:

Who Has the Hardest NFL Schedule in 2023-24?

Based off my NFL SOS calculation, the team with the hardest schedule this season is the New England Patriots. The sum of their opponents’ NFL win totals is higher than any other team in the league. This is largely due to the incredibly tough AFC East, which now features Aaron Rodgers under center for the New York Jets. None of their divisional foes have a win total less than 9.5, with the Bills being listed at 10.5. Six of the Pats’ games will come against these three teams.

The tough games don’t stop there, though, as they also see the Eagles in Week 1, Cowboys, and Chiefs, among others. This helps explain why the Patriots’ win total is listed at 6.5 and they’re given lengthy +800 odds to win the division. Bill Belichick and Mac Jones are going to have their work cut out for them this season.

Here’s a look at the other toughest schedules this season:

1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Las Vegas Raiders
5. Miami Dolphins

As I mentioned earlier, the AFC East is going to be tough this season. Of the five hardest NFL schedules this season, three of them belong to AFC East teams. The New York Jets, who are the lone AFC East team not in the top five toughest schedules, come in with the eighth-toughest schedule.

Who Has the Easiest NFL Schedule in 2023-24?

The easiest 2023-24 NFL schedule belongs to the New Orleans Saints. The sum of their opponents’ win totals is less than any other team in the league. As was the case with the Patriots above, this is largely thanks to the Saints’ division. No team in the NFC South has a win total greater than 8.5 and the Buccaneers are as low as 6.5. Those teams account for six of New Orleans’ games this season.

They also benefit from their third-place schedule that sees them draw a Rams team who the sportsbooks don’t expect much from and the Patriots. Add in the Texans and Colts from their crossover with the AFC South and the Saints look ahead to the league’s easiest schedule.

Here’s a look at the other easiest schedules this season:

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Carolina Panthers

The NFC South is basically the opposite of the AFC East this season. Three of the top five easiest schedules belong to NFC South teams, thanks to them all getting to play each other, and the outlier (Tampa Bay) has the 16th-toughest schedule.

The post Patriots Have NFL’s Hardest Schedule in 2023, Saints Have Easiest appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Five days ago, I released my first mock for the 2023 NFL Draft. I felt pretty good about it but was not so naïve to think those picks would still ring true one day before the NFL Draft. This isn’t my first rodeo. While I didn’t expect a Reddit thread would cause Will Levis draft chaos, I did foresee lines moving as we neared the finish line, therefore changing up what my mock should look like.

So, I am back with the second edition of my NFL mock draft that uses NFL Draft odds to piece together this puzzle. Please remember that note as you’re reading. While my name is on the mock, and I am the one who put it together, the NFL Draft predictions you are about to see below are coming from sportsbooks.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

All the asterisks above denote trades that I am proposing to make it all work. Again, I do not believe all these trades will happen. In order to follow the odds and make things fit as best as possible, I needed to move some teams around. You can also read this as, “there are good betting opportunities available.”

As was the case in my last mock, Bryce Young comes off the board first to the Carolina Panthers. The no. 2 overall pick looks different, though, as odds now favor the Texans taking Tyree Wilson instead of Will Anderson. CJ Stroud is still the third-overall pick, but in this version it is the Texans making a big move back up the board to take the Ohio State quarterback.

In creating this mock, I have considered all NFL Draft props, but did not treat them equally. Any prop where you can bet every outcome is going to be more telling than a prop that only allows you to bet one possible outcome.

Here are the spots that gave me the most trouble:

1. Third-overall pick is where things break down a little across the sportsbooks. FanDuel favors Will Anderson at +220 with Paris Johnson (+380), Tyree Wilson (+430), and CJ Stroud (+450) not far behind. However, Anderson’s over/under is 3.5 with the over pretty heavily favored at both DraftKings and Caesars. DraftKings favors Paris Johnson at +225 with CJ Stroud (+275), Will Anderson (+330), and Tyree Wilson (+400) as the other top contenders. While Johnson’s over/under favors him to be taken among the first nine picks, his line is still 9.5. Caesars might be the weirdest of the bunch, as they favor Anderson as well but Paris Johnson is nowhere to be found in their odds to be the third pick. I had to consider here that FanDuel gives Stroud -470 odds to be a top five pick and no sportsbook has an over/under for him. But this was the toughest pick to fill.
2. Things get a little weird with pick no. 7 as well. We have Anthony Richardson, who is heavily favored to be a top ten pick and his draft position lines favor over 4.5 but under 7.5. No sportsbook favors him to be taken with the seventh pick, but as I say, not all props are equal.
3. Both DraftKings and FanDuel favor Darnell Wright at +225 and +300, respectively, to be the ninth-overall pick. But Peter Skoronski’s over/under favors him under 10.5 while Wright’s is set at 17.5. Skoronski is also widely favored to be the second OL taken in the draft.

Here are some of the biggest differences (not already mentioned above) from my first mock:

• Will Anderson falls from #2 to #8
• Jalen Carter moves up from #11 to #5
• Christian Gonzalez falls from #7 to #16
• Bijan Robinson moves up from #19 to #12
• Joey Porter Jr falls from #16 to #22
• Emmanuel Forbes falls from #22 to #31
• Myles Murphy moves up from #27 to #20
• Dalton Kincaid moves up from the second round to #24
• Hendon Hooker & Jahmyr Gibbs move up from the second round to #28 and #30, respectively
• Bryan Bresee falls from #21 all the way out of the first round
• Brian Branch falls from #30 to the second round
• O’Cyrus Torrence falls from #31 to the second round

The post NFL Mock Draft 2.0 Using Only NFL Draft Odds – Jalen Carter Rises, Will Anderson Falls appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

I am back again with the first edition of my 2023 NFL mock draft. I have taken on this insane puzzle, using the NFL Draft odds and props to fill out a first-round NFL mock draft, each of the last five years and finally got enough information to piece it together for 2023.

Before you call me an idiot for who I have your team selecting in the first round, please remember this is not who I think they will take. This mock draft is not based on my opinion. It is based off the sportsbooks’ NFL Draft odds. So, go call DraftKings and FanDuel an idiot when you don’t like what you see here. (Or better yet, go bet some of their props that you think are wrong.)

Below my first-round NFL mock draft, I’ll explain the process a little more and point out the major issues I had in putting this puzzle together – also read as betting opportunities.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

All of the asterisks above denote trades that I have facilitated to make things fit. If you’re wondering why there are only 31 picks in this first-round mock, remember the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick due to policy violations around the integrity of the game.

To the surprise of few, at least not those who are familiar with the NFL Draft odds, sportsbooks have the Carolina Panthers taking QB Bryce Young with the first-overall pick. The Texans had been favored to take a QB with the second-overall pick up until a week ago (or so) when Will Anderson became the favorite. So, my mock draft has Houston taking edge-rusher Will Anderson. Things get really tricky with that third pick, as CJ Stroud is still favored to go third-overall in the NFL Draft odds. But there’s no way Arizona takes a quarterback. So, I had to make a trade and have the Raiders coming up to get their franchise QB.

I won’t spell out any more of the mock draft above. Instead, let me get into the process really quickly.

In putting this mock together, not all NFL Draft props are equal. I prioritized props where the sportsbook is offering a wager on each side. For example, draft position props allow you to bet the over or under on when a player will be taken. On the other hand, odds to be a top five/ten pick do not allow you to bet “no”. The NFL Draft props on what the position of each team’s first-round pick will be, as well as which team will draft a specific player, are very juiced.

I did, however, consider every NFL Draft prop that is available, including but not limited to: draft position over/unders, odds for each of the top ten picks, odds to be a top 5/10/31 pick, props around how many players from specific college conferences will be taken, odds on the first player taken at each position group, odds on the position of the player each team takes with their first pick, and odds on which team will draft specific players.

In piecing this together, I had to really jam a few pieces in. The puzzle doesn’t fit perfectly. Here were some of the bigger issues I encountered with the sportsbooks’ odds:

1. CJ Stroud is favored to be selected third-overall still but sportsbooks have not released an over/under for him. Stroud is also still slightly favored to be the second QB taken at -110 odds. With Will Levis basically locked in at #4 to the Colts through a few different props, I had to have Stroud go #3. I’ll be keeping my eyes open for Stroud’s over/under to open.
2. Paris Johnson Jr is favored to be the first offensive linemen taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnson and Peter Skoronski are both heavily favored to be top ten picks at -400 and -250, respectively. However, Johnson’s over/under leans strongly over 9.5 while Skoronski’s over/under favors him to go under 10.5. I had to break one of these pieces in my mock. I went with Skoronski going outside of the top ten, which would mean the over (+104 at FanDuel) on his draft position.
3. Jalen Carter, whose draft stock is quite uncertain after some off-field trouble earlier this year, has an over/under of 6.5 with the over favored at -135. Carter does not have any odds to be a top ten pick, however. As a result, I had to slide him down the board to 11 to accommodate others not having their props broken. If you do like the under on Carter’s draft position, you might want to have a look at him being the fifth or sixth-overall pick. You can get +800 on him being taken by the Seahawks at #5 and +420 on the Lions taking him at #6. I’d lean Seattle after Detroit just saw some of their players suspended. They might be a little gun shy on pulling the trigger on Carter after that. Personally, I think the over on Carter’s draft position at -135 odds looks like a good bet with Tyree Wilson and Devon Witherspoon being pretty favored picks in those two spots.
4. Bijan Robinson’s over/under is set at 12.5 with the over favored at -128 odds. However, Robinson is given the best odds to be the eighth-overall pick at DraftKings, which is currently held by the Falcons, with +200 odds. (FanDuel has Nolan Smith favored.) Both sportsbooks list Atlanta as the favorites to be the team to draft Robinson as well. As I said, though, not all props are equal and I stuck to his over/under when mocking him. I did have the Falcons come back into the first to take him, but that was just to satisfy those other props. There are too many other players heavily favored to go in the top ten, who play positions the league values more, to see a running back taken eighth.
5. If the odds are correct and the Texans take Will Anderson with the second-overall pick, I still can’t see a way they leave the first round without a new QB. If Stroud goes third, and Levis goes fourth, as the odds suggest, that just leaves Anthony Richardson from the group of perceived top quarterbacks. Richardson is given -800 odds to be a top ten pick and his over/under is set at 4.5, although the over is heavily favored. The Titans are given the best odds to be the team to draft Richardson and they very well may try to make the move up the board for him. I like the Texans to be more aggressive if they pass on a QB at #2, though. You can find Houston at +2000 to draft Richardson.
6. There is a lack of over/unders for edge players. Of the five who are given favorable odds to be a first-round pick, only Will Anderson, Nolan Smith, and Myles Murphy are given draft position props. This leaves Lukas Van Ness and Will McDonald IV without over/unders. Smith’s over/under, which favors over 10.5 at DraftKings but under 13.5 at FanDuel, made him easy to place. Due to team needs (odds on the player’s position each team will take with their first pick) favoring other positions in the middle of the first round, Van Ness didn’t come off until 18 with Murphy nearing the end of the first round. The over (-130) on Murphy’s draft position feels like a good bet. I will also be watching closely for Van Ness’ draft position to open.
7. Two other props I went against, but wouldn’t bet on, are one too many SEC player being taken (odds heavily favor under 11.5) and not enough Big Ten players being taken (odds favor over 8.5). The bottom of the board can get pretty crazy and these are easy to fulfill with just one misstep by the books.

I could go on for at least another 1,000 words explaining the other issues I encountered in putting together this mock. But I’ll stop here and see if that helps ease my mind of this puzzle. If you do see something you don’t like or other places where the odds don’t work / betting opportunities, let me know on Twitter @SBD_Matt.

The post 2023 NFL Mock Draft Based Entirely on NFL Draft Odds & Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Whether you’re hosting or attending a Super Bowl party this year, be sure you or the host has all the essentials covered: (1) a live feed of the game, (2) all the appropriate, fatty Super Bowl snacks, (3) unlimited beverages, and (4) printable props sheets for everyone to fill out. As always, SportsBettingDime.com has you covered for the latter with our printable Super Bowl props sheet.

We are also very considerate over here at SBD and don’t want to force all guests into the same props. The Super Bowl brings in many viewers, not just football fans. Some guests at the party probably won’t know who AJ Brown or Isiah Pacheco are. Those people shouldn’t miss out on the fun or feel pressured into filling out answers to questions they don’t understand. So instead of making all types of fans answer very specific football questions, we offer two different sheets: one for the hardcore football fan, and one for the more casual fan. (I like to fill out both!)

You’ll find both printable props sheets for the 2023 Super Bowl below, and will want to follow @SBD and @SBD_Matt on Twitter, or bookmark this page to come back for the live answers. (See the bottom of the page.)

Super Bowl Props Sheet for Hardcore NFL Fans

>> Download Printable Super Bowl Props Sheet for Hardcore Football Fans <<

Just to be extremely clear, any time you see a “___” (blank line) in the sheet, you are required to fill out your own answer.

Question 3 does not include the kickoff, of course. It is the first play from scrimmage in the Super Bowl. In Question 14, the 4th quarter option includes overtime, should the game be tied after 60 minutes.

When choosing an answer for Question 15, make sure you consider the “+45.5” next to Hurts’ name. This means he will have 45.5 passing yards added to his total at the end of the game. In Question 20, “C Jones” refers to Chris Jones of the Chiefs.

I also have all my guests fill in a tiebreaker question at the bottom of the page before submitting. I make everyone predict the total number of points scored in the game, but have heard not everyone likes that. So, I left the tiebreaker off here, allowing you to go with any tiebreaking question you prefer.

If any of you hardcore football fans are looking for some action through an online sportsbook, be sure you check out our favorite Super Bowl promos and Super Bowl betting apps before signing up.

Super Bowl Props Sheet for the Casual Fan

>> Download Printable Super Bowl Props Sheet for Casual Fans <<

A few things I want to clarify as people are filling out the casual sheet: (1) in Question 5, we do not start counting until the Super Bowl broadcast has begun and commercials do not count; (2) in Question 11, it does not matter if the team accepts or declines the penalty, as long as there is a penalty; (3) in Question 14, the 4th quarter option includes overtime; (4) in Question 15, the “Other” option also covers if Rihanna chooses to come out nude—joking, but also not joking; (5) in Questions 17 and 18, in order for the “Yes” to be correct, Jay-Z and/or Drake would have to perform a song with Rihanna—it is not enough for a picture of either to be shown; (6) in Question 25, the Super Bowl MVP does not have to explicitly say “thank you” to anyone, just reference them first in order for it to be the winning choice.

As is the case in the hardcore sheet, be sure everyone fills a tiebreaking question at the bottom.

Props Sheet Answers

I’ll be updating the table above live during Super Bowl 57 as each answer comes up. Make sure you are refreshing the page during the game in order to see the answers appear in the table above.

For Question 20 in the Hardcore sheet, neither Chris Jones or Haason Reddick recorded a sack. So, you can either mark both answers correct or both wrong. (I am marking both wrong.)

Need Some Help Filling Out Your Props Sheet?

There’s no shame at all in taking a little help when filling out your Super Bowl props sheet. It’s called “research”. Plus, we all want to win. So, below you’ll find a bunch of links to our Super Bowl content which features odds and picks for many of the props you will see on the hardcore sheet and even a handful from the casual one:

• Chiefs vs Eagles Matchup Breakdown
• Super Bowl Odds
• Super Bowl Odds History
• Super Bowl 57 MVP Odds
• Historical Super Bowl National Anthem Length & 2023 Odds
• Super Bowl Coin Toss Results
• Super Bowl Halftime Show History
• Historical Super Bowl Gatorade Colors & 2023 Gatorade Odds
• Fun Super Bowl Trends
• Historic Super Bowl ATS Trends
• Super Bowl Player Props
• Super Bowl Game Props

The post Printable Super Bowl 57 Props Sheet – Download the 2023 Sheet & Play at Your Party appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Welcome to the party, Ohio! As of 12:01am ET on January 1 (2023), the state of Ohio can legally bet on sports online. More than a dozen sports betting apps will be available to Ohioans for Sunday of Week 17 in the NFL, and they all arrive offering some great Ohio sports betting promos.

While claiming these promos is a no-brainer, I’m sure what to do with the signup bonuses is still up in the air for many. So, before you blindly throw your money down on your favorite Ohio team to win their next game, allow me to show you what the most profitable bets on each major Ohio sports team has been so far, the sportsbooks with the best odds for each bet type, and where my money will be in the coming days.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

If you want to jump right to one of those teams, you can do so below:

Betting the Cleveland Browns | Betting the Cincinnati Bengals | Betting the Cleveland Cavaliers

Ohio Sports Betting Tips

Before I get into the details for each Ohio team, I wouldn’t feel good if I didn’t preach some sports betting basics that promote responsible betting to ensure you don’t give all that bonus money—and the rest of your bankroll—back to the books. Here are a few quick tips to remember (because none of you have ever placed a bet prior to today, right?!?):

• Exercise smart bankroll management

Simply put, don’t bet more than you can afford. Any money that you put into a sportsbook account should be money you are ok losing. You should also avoid risking too much of your bankroll on one event/outcome. Each bet you place should be no more than 5% of your total bankroll (that you began with).

Mute all the so-called “handicappers” on social media promoting 10 unit mega max whale plays. They’re just looking for attention. Establish what a unit is for you and stick to that. If you’re feeling wildly confident in something, I would only recommend going up to 1.5 to two-unit bets.

• Always shop for the best line on every bet

The first step here is to sign up to a couple different sportsbooks, preferably ones that use different suppliers. For example, all of DraftKings Ohio, Barstool Sportsbook Ohio, and BetRivers Ohio use Kambi. So, the odds you see at those books will likely be similar. If you have one, or more, of those, consider signing up at FanDuel Ohio, Caesars Ohio, and/or BetMGM Ohio as well.

Once you have a couple/few different accounts, you can either shop them all for the best line yourself or find a good odds comparison page. Shameless plug coming up … here is our NFL odds and NBA odds pages which will do the line shopping for you. (We will be adding many more sportsbooks to those two pages in the next month.)

• Avoid betting with your heart

Many people believe their favorite team will win most, if not all, games. We all should know that is simply not true, though. Don’t lose all your money betting the Cavs to cover every night. I understand the appeal of having a bet on the game you are watching every night, but find other ways to bet your team—or a player from your team—instead of just the moneyline and spread.

What are those other ways? I look into that in the sections below!

Betting the Cleveland Browns

• Next game: at Washington Commanders on Sunday, January 2

The state of Ohio doesn’t have many more Browns games to bet on this season, as Cleveland has already been eliminated from the playoffs and there are only two more weeks left in the regular season. Their Week 17 opponent is the Washington Commanders, who are clinging onto the final wild card spot in the NFC.

If you are looking to bet the Browns, here are the best places to do so:

• Best moneyline odds: Browns +113 at BetRivers
• Best spread: Browns +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings

The total is between 40.5 and 41, depending where you look. These are the best books to bet the over and under at:

• Best over odds: Over 40.5 (-109) at Barstool Sportsbook
• Best under odds: Under 41 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

If you want a little justification for backing or laying off any of the above bets, here are a few Browns betting trends this season:

• The Browns are 2-5 straight up on the road and 1-4 as a road dog
• The over is 3-2 when the Browns are a road dog
• Cleveland is 5-3 ATS as an underdog
• The over is 0-4 in Cleveland games since Deshaun Watson has returned

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

Must be 21+ & present in OH.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

BET NOW

If your mind isn’t already made up, here are a couple bets from the Browns game that I believe present value:

1. Browns moneyline (+113) – the Commanders have not won a game since Week 12 and they are turning the team back over to Carson Wentz on Sunday, who is 2-4 as their starter this season. Plus, my SBD formula says the Browns squeak this one out.
2. Deshaun Watson under 220.5 passing yards – Watson has only gone over this total in one of his four games this season and is averaging 175.8 passing yards per game. He now faces the seventh-best pass defense in Washington. I don’t think this is where it all comes together for Watson.

Betting the Cincinnati Bengals

• Next game: vs Buffalo Bills on Monday, January 2

Unlike the Browns, the Bengals will be playing after the regular season wraps up on January 8, as they have clinched a playoff berth. You can see where they stand in our NFL playoff bracket. But their next game comes against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football of Week 17.

This is another great measuring stick opportunity for the Bengals since the Bills currently have the best odds to win the Super Bowl. Cincinnati is listed as the underdog, but it’s a small spread. If you are looking to back the Bengals on Monday, here are the best places to do so:

• Best moneyline odds: Bengals +104 at BetRivers
• Best spread: Bengals +1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

The total

• Best over odds: Over 49.5 (-109) at Barstool Sportsbook
• Best under odds: Under 49.5 (-110) at DraftKings

If you want some data to base your bet off, which you should, here are some Bengals betting trends from this season:

• The Bengals are 5-1 straight up at home
• The Bengals are riding a seven-game winning streak
• Cincinnati is a league-best 12-3 ATS, and 12-1 ATS since Week 3
• Cincinnati is 2-0 ATS as an underdog
• The over is 2-4 in Cincinnati home games & 1-7 in Buffalo road games

BARSTOOL SPORTSBOOK OHIO

Offer

T&Cs

Get First Bet Insurance
Up To $1,000!

Must be 21+ & present in OH.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME1000

CODE: DIME1000

OHIO EXCLUSIVE

$1,000
BET INSURANCE

GET PROMO

And finally, here are the bets I believe present some value:

1. Joe Mixon over 23.5 receiving yards – he has gone over in six of last seven and is coming off a nine-target game in Week 16. Buffalo has been pretty good against RBs in the pass game, but I believe they’re going to sell out to stop the likes of Ja’Marr Chase.
2. Tee Higgins anytime touchdown – Higgins has a touchdown in each of his last four games and has a touchdown in seven of the 13 games where he plays more than ten snaps. He can be found as long as +179 to find the endzone Monday night.

Betting the Cleveland Cavaliers

• Next game: vs Chicago Bulls on Monday, January 2

Sadly, lines are not available for Monday’s NBA games yet, but we can still dive into some of the more profitable bets on Cavaliers games so far this season. Here are some Cavs betting trends to consider:

• Cleveland is 16-4 straight up at home
• The Cavaliers are 13-6-1 ATS at home
• The total has gone over in 10 of 20 Cleveland home games

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

First Bet Offer: Get Up to $1000 Paid Back if You Don’t Win!

Must be 21+ & present in OH.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

LOCK IN PROMO

OHIO EXCLUSIVE

GET UP TO
$1,000 BACK

CLAIM OFFER

OH only. 21+. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Bet amount of qualifying wager returned only if wager is settled as a loss. Maximum bet credit $1,500; must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

The post Ohio Sports Betting Tips – Best Ways to Bet the Bengals, Browns & Cavaliers in Legal OH Betting Market appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Maryland, your time has finally come! Nearly a full year after the state launched retail sports betting, Marylanders can now take advantage of online sports betting from the comfort of their homes. Online sports betting officially launched on Wednesday, November 23 in Maryland, meaning they just missed the Baltimore Ravens’ Week 11 win over the Panthers. Their first opportunity to bet their Ravens comes this Sunday (November 27) when Baltimore takes on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If you’re a little unsure on where or how to bet the Ravens, you’ve landed in the right place. I have rounded up all the best Ravens betting promos from each sportsbook, the best odds you can get, the player props available, and my recommendation on how you should bet Baltimore this weekend.

Ravens Promos | Ravens Odds | Ravens Props | Ravens Best Bets

Baltimore Ravens Betting Promos

It’s incredibly important that you take advantage of the welcome bonuses all these sportsbooks are offering with the state of Maryland just launching. Pad your bankroll off the start and play with some house money for a bit. Here are the best Maryland sports betting promos from each sportsbook:

If you don’t have much money to deposit into your bankroll, the best promos for you would be either of the bet $5, get $200 offered by DraftKings Sportsbook Maryland as well as FanDuel Sportsbook Maryland.

If you have more cash to put in and want to try and claim a bigger offer, all of the Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Barstool first bet insurances might be better for you. Just be sure to read the fine print in the promo, specifically about how you get the money back if you lose your bet.

Ravens Odds & Betting Lines

In order to be a profitable sports bettor, it is vital that you make every win count. The best handicappers in the world are only winning around 57% of their bets. So when you do win, you have to make every penny you can from that win.

This is why line shopping is so important. You can do your own line shopping on our NFL odds page, but I have done the work for you when it comes to the best lines on the Ravens this week. Let’s get started the right way in Baltimore’s Week 12 matchup with the Jaguars.

• Best Ravens Spread = Baltimore -3.5 (-107) at PointsBet

Baltimore opened as four-point favorites over the Jags and Barstool Sportsbook is still holding strong on that line. So if you’re not confident in your team to cover this week, that’s the place to bet Jacksonville. Every other sportsbook has come down to Ravens -3.5 now, but PointsBet has the best odds on that line at -107.

POINTSBET
SPORTSBOOK

Get Five Second-Chance Bets of Up To $100 Each from PointsBet!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP OFFER

GET FIVE
2ND CHANCE BETS

BET NOW

So not only are you laying a half-point less than if you were at Bartstool, but then you’re getting more from your win versus any other sportsbook. A $50 bet on the -107 odds wins you $46.50 and returns $96.50. If you take the -110 odds most other books are offering, you only win $45.50 and return $95.50.

• Best Ravens vs Jaguars Over Line =

If you think we’ll see a lot of points from Lamar Jackson and/or Trevor Lawrence this Sunday, DraftKings is the best place to bet the over. Most sportsbooks have the game total listed at 43.5, but DraftKings has the best odds on the over.

• Best Ravens vs Jaguars Under Line = 44 (-115) at Barstool Sportsbook

Once again, Barstool Sportsbook is a little different than the rest. They have their Ravens vs Jaguars game total set at 44. You do have to pay a little extra with the -115 odds, though. If you don’t think the extra half-point is worth having, then take the under 43.5 at PointsBet at -107 odds.

• Best Ravens Moneyline =

Baltimore is as heavy as -200 favorites at FanDuel to beat the Jaguars in Week 12. But you can find them as long as -178 at Caesars. This saves you 22 cents versus FanDuel. Realistically, none of these lines are great to bet, though. The risk isn’t worth the reward in the end.

If you like the Ravens to win, but not by more than a field goal, scroll down to the best bets section to find a better way to bet this.

Also, if you don’t like the Ravens on the road and want to bet the Jaguars to win, FanDuel is the place to do so. You’ll find +168 odds on Jacksonville there.

Ravens Props

Instead of listing off the hundreds of props available for the Ravens vs Jaguars game this weekend, I have done some line shopping on some of the more popular player props at online sportsbooks. You’ll see the line and odds for the best book to bet both the over and under on your favorite Ravens players below.

Lamar Jackson Props

• Lamar Jackson Passing Yards: Over 198.5 (-120) at BetMGM / Under 207.5 (-114) at Barstool Sportsbook
• Lamar Jackson Passing TDs: Over 1.5 (+120) at DraftKings / Under 1.5 (-155) at Barstool Sportsbook
• Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards: Over 50.5 (-125) at PointsBet / Under 54.5 (-113) at Barstool Sportsbook

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

BET NOW

Mark Andrew Props

• Mark Andrews Receptions: Over 5.5 (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook / Under 5.5 (-121) at Barstool Sportsbook
• Mark Andrew Receiving Yards: Over 66.5 (-115) at DraftKings / Under 70.5 (-130) at PointsBet

BARSTOOL SPORTSBOOK MARYLAND

Offer

T&Cs

Get Bet Insurance Up To $1,000
from Barstool Sportsbook!

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In TN call or text the TN REDLINE 800-889-9789

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME1000

CODE: DIME1000

MD SIGNUP PROMO

$1,000
BET INSURANCE

GET PROMO

Ravens Touchdown Props

• Mark Andrews First TD Scorer (+750) at DraftKings / Anytime TD (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Gus Edwards First TD Scorer (+900) at BetMGM / Anytime TD (+185) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Kenyan Drake First TD Scorer (+1000) at Barstool Sportsbook / Anytime TD (+260) at Caesars Sportsbook
• Lamar Jackson First TD Scorer (+900) at FanDuel / Anytime TD (+165) at FanDuel
• Devin Duvernay First TD Scorer (+1400) at FanDuel / Anytime TD (+280) at FanDuel

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,000 Back if You Don't Win Your First Bet!

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Offer not valid in AZ, CO, IL, TN.

LOCK IN PROMO

NO SWEAT FIRST BET

GET UP TO
$1,000 BACK

BET NOW

We will see more over/under lines open for Ravens players shortly. The sportsbook are just waiting on more firm news around running back Gus Edwards, Devin Duvernay, and Demarcus Robinson. All of those players are currently listed as questionable to play on Sunday. If any one of them sits out, it would massively swing the other rushing and receiving props.

Best Bets on Ravens

If you want to make a bet on the Ravens game this weekend but just want to be told what to bet, here is how I will be betting the game:

• Same-Game Parlay: Ravens -2.5 & Ravens over 16.5 points & Mark Andrews over 49.5 receiving yards (+155) at DraftKings

My SBD score predicting formula is calling for a 22.7-16.9 win for the Ravens. This exact score would result in the Ravens covering as 3.5-point favorites and the total going under 43.5. However, those are some pretty tight margins.

So, I am teasing the spread down to Ravens -2.5 and pairing it with a couple other correlated props to form a same-game parlay. Week 11 was the first time Baltimore failed to score at least 17 points in a game this season, and Jacksonville has allowed teams over this total in seven of ten. I don’t foresee the ninth-ranked scoring offense being held below that number two weeks in a row.

Mark Andrews has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in six of nine games this season. One of the games he went under was Week 8, where injury forced him to leave the game after his tenth snap. He was actually targeted on five of those ten snaps and had 33 receiving yards already. Plus, Jacksonville ranks 24th against the pass.

The post Best Ravens Betting Promos, Odds & Bets for Marylanders 1st Opportunity to Bet the Ravens This Sunday appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We have officially reached the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season. It has been a real bumpy ride so far as we have watched some perennially good teams struggle mightily and some pretty average teams on paper win a lot of games. Whether the second half of the season remains the same is yet to be seen. What I’m here to provide you with is the path all 32 teams face over the final nine weeks of the season.

Using the NFL strength of schedule calculation I came up with a handful of years ago, I have run the SOS numbers for the second half of the season. You’ll see each team ranked from 1 (toughest remaining schedule) to 32 (easiest remaining schedule) in the table below, with the “NFL SOS” metric displaying the average win total for the eight/nine games on their schedule.

NFL Strength of Schedule for 2nd Half

My calculation uses the NFL win totals from sportsbooks for each team instead of their current record.

The New England Patriots face the toughest schedule over the second half of the season. Their average opponent is a projected 10-win team. Some of their notable opponents include the Bills (twice), Vikings, and Dolphins, all of whom have win totals of at least 10.5. They also have the Jets and Bengals coming up, whose average win totals are listed at 9.3.

On the other end, the Baltimore Ravens have the easiest second half schedule. Baltimore’s average opponent is just a 6.6-win team. Some of their notable opponents include the Steelers (twice) and Panthers, both of whom have win totals of 5.5 or lower. They also get the Jaguars and Broncos, whose win totals are set at 6.5.

This is especially great news for Ravens fans as Maryland online sports betting is expected to begin before the end of November.

Teams Whose 2nd Half is Much Tougher Than 1st

Denver Broncos

Not only have the Broncos dramatically underperformed versus expectations, but they have done so against a pretty light set of first half opponents. Their average first half opponent was a 7.6-win team. They did not play a single game against a team whose current win total is higher than 9.5.

Three of Denver’s final nine opponents will be teams with live win totals of 11.5 or higher. Two of those games are against the Chiefs—maybe the best team in the league—and the other is the against the Ravens. Their average second half opponent is a nine-win team, which is 1.4 wins higher than the first half.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts average opponent in the first half of the season was just a 7.8-win team. The Chiefs were the only team they played whose average win total is currently 9.5 or higher. New head coach Jeff Saturday is not going to have it so easy in the second half.

Breaking: Colts are naming their former six-time Pro-Bowl C and ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday has been a consultant for the team, is in its Ring Of Honor, and also was head coach for the Hebron Christian Academy football team in Dacula, Georgia. pic.twitter.com/VEmHOeSrFR

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 7, 2022

Indianapolis has to deal with the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Giants, and Chargers in the second half, all of whom have live win totals of 9.5 or higher. Their average opponent in the second half is a 9.1-win team, which is 1.3 wins higher than their average first half opponent.

Teams Whose 2nd Half is Much Easier Than 1st

Pittsburgh Steelers

Based off live NFL win totals, no team played a tougher first half schedule than the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their average opponent was a 10.2-win team. The Steelers did not play a single team with a current win total less than 7.5 in the first nine weeks, and five of those opponents have win totals greater than nine.

It does get easier for Kenny Pickett and company, though. They will only play three games against teams with live win totals greater than 7.5. All three are divisional games with two coming against the Ravens and the other against the Bengals. Pittsburgh’s average opponent in the second half is just a 7.9-win team, which is 2.3 wins lower than the first half.

Detroit Lions

The second-toughest first half schedule belonged to the Lions, whose average opponent was a 10-win team. Four of their eight games came against teams whose win totals are currently listed at 10.5 or higher. Their weakest opponent was a projected 6.5-win team (the Packers).

#Lions safety Kerby Joseph is named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week.

— Eric Woodyard (@E_Woodyard) November 9, 2022

In the second half, five of Detroit’s nine games come against teams whose win total is 6.5 or lower. They do still have tough games against the Giants, Bills, and Vikings coming up, but their average second half opponent is just an 8.3-win team, which is 1.7 wins lower than the first half.

Bets to Consider Using NFL SOS for 2nd Half

• Patriots to miss the playoffs (-165) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Patriots are currently 5-4 and on the outside of the NFL playoff picture. They’re only a half-game back of the Chargers for the final wild card spot, but also have to deal with the Bengals, who have the same 5-4 record. Looking to their second half strength of schedule, which is the toughest in the league, I don’t see a ton of wins coming their way.

Four of their final eight games come against teams with win totals of at least 10.5, and only have two games against teams with average win totals lower than nine. The Bengals don’t have it much easier, but I do have more faith in Joe Burrow and company to navigate a tough second half than I do Mac Jones. The Chargers schedule is much lighter than both of theirs and should be able to hold off the Pats.

• Packers under 6.5 wins (+155) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Things aren’t about to get any easier for the Packers, whose average first half opponent was an 8.9-win team, as their average second half opponent is a 9.6-win team. There’s also this problem that they aren’t very good and are losing a lot of key players to injury—Rashan Gary is done for the season, Romeo Doubs is out 4-6 weeks, and Aaron Jones could miss this weekend’s game.

The Packers get Dallas in Week 10, Philadelphia in Week 12, and then the Dolphins and Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17. I don’t like them to win any of those games, which would leave them with a max of seven potential wins—they’re currently 3-6. Those other four games come against the Titans, who pose a real threat with the Packers struggling to stop the run, Bears, who are becoming much more competitive as they continue working their offense around Justin Fields’ strengths, Rams, who are still the defending champs, and Lions, who just beat Green Bay in Week 9.

I like them to lose at least one of those four.

The post NFL Strength of Schedule for 2nd Half of 2022 Season – Ravens Have an Easy Path appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season is officially in the books, and what a week it was! We saw a lot of teams come out look much worse than expected—Rams, Cowboys, Bengals, Packers, Cardinals, Colts, and Broncos, among others—and others look much better than anticipated—Giants, Seahawks, Vikings etc.

Now that we’ve had a better look at how good/bad each team is in 2022, I have updated my NFL strength of schedule rankings. As you may know, I use my own proprietary calculation for NFL strength of schedule, which calls upon NFL win totals. Here’s what the SOS rankings look like after being adjusted to consider Week 1’s results:

*1 equals the toughest remaining schedule, while 32 is the easiest.

NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

The strength of schedule metric above is the sum of each team’s opponents’ win totals. For the sake of comparison to the preseason NFL strength of schedule, I have left every team’s Week 1 opponents in the calculation.

The Pittsburgh Steelers now have the toughest remaining schedule in the 2022 NFL season, while the Philadelphia Eagles still have the easiest. The Steelers were believed to have the second-toughest schedule entering the season. So, they experienced a little movement, but nothing significant.

Let’s dive into the teams whose NFL strength of schedule did change significantly following Week 1 results:

Teams Whose NFL Strength of Schedule Got Tougher

• Cleveland Browns: 27th-toughest –> 14th-toughest

The Browns were lucky to escape Carolina with a win in Week 1. But they shouldn’t spend any time celebrating the win, since their remaining schedule looks a whole lot tougher than it did back in the preseason. Many of Cleveland’s opponents looked better than expected in their respective Week 1 games.

We saw the Ravens look more like the team we had gotten used to in Lamar Jackson’s first few seasons under center, not the injury-riddled version we saw last year. (This one even seems to push the ball downfield more!) As a result, Baltimore’s win total went up from 9.5 to 10.5. This one is especially significant since the Browns have two games against the Ravens this season.

Lamar Jackson's average depth of target was 13.1 yards in Week 1, the highest in the NFL. 💪

He threw nine passes that went 15+ yards downfield. 3 were completed for TDs.#NFL | #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/HIk6ZX7DK5

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) September 13, 2022

The Chargers looked good in a win over the Raiders, sending their average win total from 9.8 to 10.8. Cleveland hosts the Chargers in Week 5. The Dolphins dominated the Patriots in Week 1, and their average win total improved from 8.5 to 9.8. The Browns head to Miami in Week 10. The Bills looked scary good in Week 1 against the Rams. Their already-high win total went up from 11.5 to 12.5, which is an NFL-high. Cleveland will go from Miami to Buffalo in Week 11.

The sum of Cleveland’s opponents’ win totals was 140.5 when I calculated NFL strength of schedule in the offseason. The sum of their opponents’ win totals after Week 1 is 144.2. Their opponents got better by 3.7 wins.

• Dallas Cowboys: 23rd-toughest –> 15th-toughest

Things are not looking good in Dallas right now. Not only were the Cowboys the only team not to score a touchdown in Week 1, but also lost Dak Prescott to a broken hand. Now this! Dallas’ NFL strength of schedule went from the 23rd-toughest to the 15th-toughest.

This is largely the result of three of their future opponents looking better than expected in Week 1. First, the Eagles looked to be legitimately in the conversation for Super Bowl contenders in their win over the Lions. Philadelphia’s win total went from 8.5 to 10.5 after Week 1. (Some of that movement did happen leading up to Week 1.) Dallas still has to deal with the Eagles twice this season.

Jalen Hurts through 20 career starts

Passing Yards — 4,306
Rushing Yards — 1,146

Only player in #NFL history to have 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards through 20 career starts (accomplished the feat in 19 starts). #Eagles #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/A7SaozUtrS

— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) September 13, 2022

The Giants, another division rival, upset the Titans in Week 1 and saw their average win total go from 7 to 7.8. This is another two games Dallas has to play this season. Finally, the Vikings, who Dallas play on the road in Week 11, saw their average win total improve from 9 to 10.3 with a big win over the Packers.

Dallas’ opponents’ win totals went from a combined 141 to 144.1 as a result.

Teams Whose NFL Strength of Schedule Got Easier

• Los Angeles Chargers: 9th-toughest –> 23rd-toughest

No team saw their strength of schedule ranking move more than the LA Chargers after Week 1. Many of LA’s future opponents put forth very underwhelming performances in their season-openers.

The Chargers see the Jaguars in Week 3, who lost to the Commanders and saw their win total drop from 6.5 to 5.5 as a result; they play the Browns in Week 10, which is before Deshaun Watson returns from suspension, who have seen their average win total go from 10 to 9.3; the Broncos, who LA plays twice this season, were upset by the Seahawks, resulting in their average win total dropping from 10 to 9.3; the Cardinals looked awful in Week 1, moving their win total from 9 to 7.8, and the Chargers will see them in Week 12; the Titans were upset by the Giants and saw their win total drop from 9.5 to 7.8, making LA’s Week 15 matchup with them look a little easier.

Looking at the full picture, LA’s opponents’ win totals fell from 149 to 141.8!

• Houston Texans: 8th-toughest –> 18th-toughest

In one of the biggest surprises of Week 1, the Houston Texans tied the Indianapolis Colts. Even though it wasn’t a win, it felt like one for the team who entered the season with the second-worst odds to win the Super Bowl. Now the Texans get another “win” in their strength of schedule looking easier than expected.

Two more of Houston’s divisional foes didn’t impress in Week 1, as the Jaguars lost to the Commanders and the Titans were upset by the Giants. Tennessee’s average win total fell from 9.5 to 7.8—some of that movement happened in the offseason, after the original SOS was released—and Jacksonville’s fell from 6.5 to 5.5.

Houston also plays the Broncos in Week 2, where they’re listed as 10-point underdogs in Denver, and Cowboys in Week 14. The former were upset by the Seahawks in Week 1, resulting in their average win total dropping from 10 to 9.3, while the Cowboys looked awful against the Bucs, seeing their win total fall from 10.5 to 7.5. (The injury to Dak Prescott is the reason for such a sharp dip.)

Overall, Houston’s opponent’s win totals went from 149.5 down to 143.1.

• San Francisco 49ers: 16th-toughest –> 25th-toughest

The 49ers suffered a miserable loss to the Bears in a monsoon on Sunday. But their remaining schedule at least looks a little easier than originally expected.

To avoid retelling all the same info you heard above on which teams flopped in Week 1, here are the teams on San Francisco’s schedule who saw their win totals drop: the Broncos, Rams (twice), and Cardinals (twice).

The 49ers’ opponents’ saw their win totals go from 145 to 140.6.

The post 2022 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings for All Teams Updated After Week 1 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2022 NFL Draft is nearly upon us! The Jacksonville Jaguars will officially be on the clock to make the first-overall pick on Thursday, April 28 at 8pm ET. Who they’re going to take with that pick is still very much up in the air. There have been four different players listed as the favorites to go first-overall: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Evan Neal, Aidan Hutchinson, and now Travon Walker.

With that pick being so uncertain, it gets real cloudy for the rest of the first round. But by this point, you’ve seen hundreds of first-round mocks from all the experts, each looking very different from the rest. Annoying, right?

We’re giving you the opportunity to show all these analysts who the real expert is. You’ll find a blank template to create your own NFL mock draft below. We’re eager to see yours, though! So be sure to snap a picture and tag us on Twitter @SBD.

Create Your NFL Mock Draft

>> Download Your 2022 Mock Draft Template <<

When filling this out, be aware that we have created that “Team Selecting” column so you can facilitate trades. Mark down the team you believe will make the pick and the player they will take.

The scoring system I created for this is as follows:

• 4 points for a player in the correct slot + *1 bonus point for the correct team*
• 2 points for a player selected one pick away from where you had them
• 1 point for a player selected two picks away from where you had them

To be clear, the bonus point only applies if you have the correct player in that slot as well. An example of someone earning two points is if they mock Aidan Hutchinson to the Jaguars at no. 1, but he is actually taken at no. 2. Since he is one pick away from where you had him, two points are rewarded.

An example of someone earning one point is them mocking Kenny Pickett to the Panthers at no. 6, but he actually gets drafted at no. 4 or no. 8. This would be two picks away from where you had him, so one point is awarded.

Looking for Help in Filling Out Your NFL Mock Draft?

Want some help in filling out the later picks of the first-round? (Don’t be ashamed to take help in filling out the whole round either!) I’d recommend you don’t try and work your way through the thousands of expert mocks out there. Instead, educate yourself on the odds and make your picks around what the sportsbooks think will happen – they make money thanks to not being horribly wrong.

You can check out the following resources at SBD:

• NFL Draft Odds
• NFL Mock Draft Based on Betting Odds

I will also be publishing a 2.0 version of the mock draft above, since the odds have changed pretty significantly since I published the first one on Friday.

The post Create Your Own 2022 NFL Mock Draft and Take on the Draft Experts appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We are less than a week from the 2022 NFL Draft, as the first-round is scheduled to begin on Thursday, April 28 at 8pm ET. Unlike most years, we actually aren’t overly confident in who the first-overall pick will be. We’ve seen all of Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Ikem Ekwonu, and Evan Neal projected to go the Jaguars with the first pick.

As a result, it has been very tiring trying to keep up with all the NFL Draft rumors, and trying to determine which “expert” to trust is anyone’s guess. I believe I have the best sources in the business, though: sportsbooks. I have left all opinion to the side and trusted my sources. They have provided me with odds to be a top five/ten pick, a first-round pick, draft position over/unders for many players, and lines for the total number of players drafted at each position, among other NFL Draft props.

Making these all fit was quite the task, but I’ve pulled it off. There are some discrepancies with their odds, though, which have opened up some betting opportunities. I discuss those below the mock.

If you want to check in on my sources, check out all the NFL Draft odds with some of my notes on significant movement.

NFL Mock Draft

All asterisks above denote a projected trade.

Although Aidan Hutchinson’s odds to go first-overall have been fading over the last month, he is still the odds-on favorite. Then I have the Lions and Texans also taking edge rushers in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Travon Walker, respectively. Thibodeaux currently has the best odds to go second-overall, while there is some discrepancies in the odds for the third-overall pick—we’ll dive into that later.

My mock gets a little chaotic starting at pick ten. Let me be very clear: I do not believe this many trades will happen. But in order to satisfy what the props suggest, and not have teams draft positions they are already strong in, I needed to facilitate a handful of trades. Here’s a quick explanation on each:

Projected NFL Draft Trades

1. Houston moves back up to #6: the Texans would likely need to throw in next year’s second-round pick to make the jump from 13 to six, but it was the only way I could make Evan Neal’s draft position line work. It is possible that Carolina stays put at six and takes Neal. The odds just heavily favor them taking Kenny Pickett with their first pick. You can get +600 odds on Neal as the sixth-overall pick at FanDuel. Houston also has a major need for an offensive lineman and this move would not contradict any of their other odds.
2. Minnesota jumps Washington: with Ahmad Gardner off the board to the Jets at four, Derek Stingley Jr would be the next corner taken, according to the odds. His draft position over/under is set at 10.5 with the under heavily favored. I needed to find a way to fit him into the top ten and Minnesota is given short +115 odds to take a defensive back with their first pick. The next best corner on the board would be Trent McDuffie, whose draft position over/under is 17.5. This would likely cost the Vikings fourth and sixth-round picks along with their own first this year.
3. Jets continue moving back to let Steelers take QB: the two teams favored to take a quarterback with their first pick are the Steelers and Panthers. The odds favor Carolina taking Kenny Pickett, which would leave Malik Willis for the Steelers. However, the NFL Draft odds favor Willis being the first quarterback taken. This meant I needed to find a way for Pittsburgh to jump above Carolina, which also helped me make the decision on the first trade in this list. The Jets could do well moving down and adding some extra picks. There are a lot of holes to fill on that roster. This trade would likely net them an extra second-round pick.
4. Eagles move from 15 to 13 for WR: this trade was made to satisfy Philadelphia’s odds favoring them taking a wide receiver, defensive back, or defensive lineman / edge, as well as Jameson Williams’ draft position over/under. Williams’ over/under is at 14.5 with the under heavily favored. This would probably only cost the Eagles fourth and sixth-round picks along with their 15th.
5. Packers move up for their WR: this move made sense in order to satisfy Chris Olave’s draft position over/under saying he’ll be one of the first 17 picks, and Green Bay’s need for wide receiver help. The move likely only costs the Packers a third-round pick and their 22.
6. Ravens move down from 14 to 20: I talk more about this one later, but it needed to be done to make room for Kyle Hamilton and our quarterbacks to come off the board in time.
7. Chiefs also move up for a WR: the Chiefs are favored to take a wide receiver with their first pick and Treylon Burks needed to come off the board before pick 24. This also allowed me to find a place for Daxton Hill to be selected in the first round so the total number of safeties taken would be over 1.5, as the odds state.

I do not believe all of these trades will happen, and I’m sure you feel the same way. The fact that I needed to push these all through tells you there are some great betting opportunities to jump on.

NFL Draft Betting Opportunities

I want to highlight five betting opportunities for the 2022 NFL Draft, and also offer a quick piece of advice for anyone who is high on a certain player.

Third-Overall Pick

The Houston Texans hold the third-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Odds favor the Texans to take a DL/EDGE at +100, with offensive lineman coming in second at +175. Odds to be the first-overall pick still favor Aidan Hutchinson, with Travon Walker creeping up on him, and the odds to be the second-overall pick favor Kayvon Thibodeaux now. So that takes those two DL/EDGE players off the board.

Walker’s odds to be a top three pick are set at -600. Ikenm Ekwonu is listed at +170 to go in the top three and his over/under is set at 4.5 with the over favored at -122. However, he is the favorite to be taken third-overall at DraftKings at +200. You can find Travon Walker at +500 here and as long as +700 at Caesars Sportsbook. At FanDuel, Walker is the favorite to go third with +250 odds compared to Ekwonu’s +380.

• Travon Walker to Be 3rd-Overall Pick (+700)

If you’re not betting with Caesars Sportsbook yet, don’t miss out on the great Caesars Sportsbook promos for new users.

Position of Jets’ First Player Taken

The Jaguars, who hold the first-overall pick, are given -1000 odds to take a DL/EDGE. The Lions, who are up next, are also favored to take a DL/EDGE with -280 odds. The odds also favor the Texans to take a DL/EDGE with the third-overall pick with +100 odds.

Then the Jets are also favored to take a DL/EDGE with their first pick, which is fourth-overall right now. They are given +125 odds to do so. However, there are only three DL/EDGE players given favorable odds to be taken in the top five. This means the Jets are either going to reach for Jermaine Johnson II, who is the projected next DL/EDGE player to come off the board and is given +400 odds to go in the top five, or they take another position.

Just because Sauce Gardner is tall, long and physical, doesn't mean he has stiff hips. That was a false narrative about the CB, earlier in draft season.

He's extremely fluid, and uses his hands to feel route breaks. This allows Sauce to get back into the hip pocket and 🔒⬇️ WRs. pic.twitter.com/Yz4vSGFKvA

— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) April 18, 2022

The next best players on the board, according to the odds, would be Ahmad Gardner (CB) or one of Ikem Ekwonu / Evan Neal (OLs). You can get the Jets at +250 to take a defensive back and +350 to take an offensive lineman.
We also have to consider it may not be the Jets odds that are off. What if it’s the Texans’ odds are the ones to pick on? You can get +175 odds on Houston to take an OL and +300 for them to go with a DB.

Keep in mind, this all gets completely blown up if one of these teams trades down.

• Jets to Take a Defensive Back with 1st Pick (+250)

If you’re not already signed up at DraftKings, be sure you check out the best DraftKings promos before registering.

Jordan Davis Draft Position

Jordan Davis has gotten a lot of attention due to his size and athletic ability. I think he’s going to be a very good football player for whoever takes him in the draft. But I really struggled to find a place for him.

Davis’ draft position over/under is as low as 14.5 but has moved to 15.5 at most sportsbooks now. Based off the odds on the position of each team’s first pick, it appears Baltimore at 14 would be the absolute earliest he could come off the board. However, there are 15 players whose draft position over/under suggests they’re being taken before Davis.

So while I do have the Ravens taking Davis in my mock, it had to come later with Baltimore moving down to satisfy all the other odds.

• Jordan Davis over 15.5 (-114)

Desmond Ridder Draft Position & Total Quarterbacks Taken in First-Round

You can get Desmond Ridder at -125 odds to be a first-round pick at DraftKings. FanDuel has his draft position over/under at 30.5 with both sides seeing -114 odds. However, FanDuel has their line for total number of quarterbacks taken in the first round at 3.5, with the over given +182 odds.

The third-most wins by a QB in college football history.

Now @GoBearcatsFB QB @desmondridder wants to bring that success to the league. 💪

📺: 2022 #NFLDraft — April 28-30 on NFLN/ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/PWNVp0kLz1

— NFL (@NFL) April 18, 2022

This opens up an opportunity to bet (1) the over on Ridder’s draft position, and (2) the over on quarterbacks taken in the first round at +182. If you do this properly, you can earn a profit either way and also leave yourself a small window to middle the two bets.

All of the above assumes the odds are also correct, though, in Matt Corral being selected in the first round. His odds are as short as -145 to be taken in the first 32 picks. Corral falling out of the first round would completely ruin the above opportunity.

• Desmond Ridder over 30.5 (-114)
• Over 3.5 Quarterbacks Taken in First Round (+182)

Total Offensive Linemen Taken in First Round

DraftKings has the line for offensive linemen taken in the first round set at 7.5, with the under heavily favored at -200 odds. However, their odds to be a top 32 pick contradict the under. We can say with near certainty that Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, and Charles Cross will be taken in the first round. None of these players are even given odds to be taken in the first 32 picks because the odds would be too short.

Then we have Tyler Linderbaum (-900 to be taken in the first round), Trevor Penning (-700), Zion Johnson (-300), and Kenyon Green (-250) all given very favorable odds to hear their name called on Thursday night. That puts us at seven right there.

But we also have Tyler Smith (+100) and Bernhard Raimann (+135) who have a shot to go in the first based off their odds. There are nine teams selecting in the first round that DraftKings favors to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.

• Over 7.5 Offensive Linemen Taken in First Round (+155)

Betting on Malik Willis NFL Draft Props

As I said, this final one is more advice for if you do like Malik Willis to go early in the draft.

Willis’ draft position over/under is set at 10.5 with -115 odds on each side of that total. However, his odds to be a top ten pick are -200 at DraftKings. Be sure you avoid betting those odds if you do think Willis goes in the top ten—just take the under on his draft position total at 10.5.

The post 2022 First-Round NFL Mock Draft Based Entirely Off Betting Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Has your online sportsbook or sports betting app not graded one (or more) of your Super Bowl prop bets? Are you looking for the correct answer to a Super Bowl prop that was graded a loss for you? Want to contest the answer on one of these props? Or maybe you didn’t place one of these bets at a sportsbook, but just with friends.

We’ve got you covered. (Well, we’re not going to contest the prop outcome for you, but we do have the answers to all Super Bowl 56 props below.)

So don’t waste your time trying to re-watch the broadcast to figure out what was said first, who was shown first, or the color of Gatorade dumped at the Super Bowl. The team at SportsBettingDime has done the heavy lifting.

You can use the links below to quickly navigate to the specific props you are looking for, or use CTRL+F to search for a specific prop on this page.

Anthem and Coin Toss Props | Halftime Props | Broadcast Props | Game Props | Team Props | Player Props

Answers to Super Bowl National Anthem & Coin Toss Props

This will be the first section we have (almost) completely filled out during the game. After Mickey Guyton performs the national anthem, we will have just about all answers filled in before kickoff.

The coin toss will also be a quick one, but we will just be waiting on the one prop on whether the team who wins the coin toss will also win the game.

Answers to 2022 Super Bowl Halftime Show Props

We’ll be filling out the answers to the Super Bowl Halftime Show props above as they come up during Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, and Kendrick Lamar’s performance at SoFi Stadium.

Answers to Super Bowl Broadcast Props

We will do our best to catch all of these as they come up throughout the game, but may need to go back and hunt down a few of them.

Some companies released their Super Bowl commercials ahead of time, so we were able to get these graded before kickoff.

Answers to Super Bowl 56 Game Props

There are a large chunk of game props in the table above that will be filled out after Los Angeles and Cincinnati’s respective first drives. Most of the answers will be filled in after Super Bowl 2022 has finished, though.

Answers to Super Bowl 56 Team Props

The majority of the team props above will be filled in after Super Bowl 56 has finished, as many will not be decided until the game has ended.

Answers to Super Bowl 56 Player Props

We’ll get the first touchdown scorer in the table above ASAP, as well as the anytime touchdown scorers. But most of the player props above will have their outcomes filled in at the conclusion of Super Bowl 2022.

The post Answers and Outcomes for All Super Bowl 56 Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

If you haven’t been following me on Twitter throughout the 2021-22 NFL season, you have missed out on some big profits. No, it hasn’t exactly been my personal picks bringing in the money, rather the picks from the SBD formula I created. (So … they’re still kind of mine, right?)

Using a variety of team and player stats, trends, and some injury info, my SBD formula predicts a score for every NFL game. Using the margin of victory and ATS margin of victory for each game, I was able to turn the formula’s scores into NFL computer picks with some confidence levels.

We only have one game left in the NFL season: Super Bowl 56 between the LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. My SBD formula has made its computer pick for the game. All the experts at SportsBettingDime have also shared their picks below.

Computer Picks for Super Bowl | Expert Picks for Super Bowl

NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 56

SportsBettingDime’s score predicting formula went 51-36-3 on its top five ATS picks from each week of the 2021-22 NFL regular season. Treating the ties as null, since you get your money back, that’s good for a winning percentage of 58.6%.

If you had bet $100 on each game, you would have came out with an extra $1,735.90. Based on the $8,700 investment ($100 x 87 games), your ROI would have been 11.91%. If you want that in units, you would have been +10.41 units at the end of the regular season.

It has now gone 7-5 against the spread in the playoffs, adding another $136.30 if you’re betting $100 per game, or 1.36 units in more objective terms.

Updated betting records entering #SuperBowl

▪️My @SBD formula = 7-5 ATS & 8-4 on Totals

▪️Public = 6-6 ATS & 3-9 on Totals

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 31, 2022

But this isn’t even where the SBD formula thrived. It absolutely crushed upset picks this season, going 39-37 straight up when it predicted an underdog to win. This may not look like much at first based off the 51.3% win rate, but the wins really counted since you were getting better than +100 odds on all teams.

On strictly upset picks, it won 23.38 units. If you had bet $100 on each of these underdogs to win, you would have made $2,338. This is an ROI of 30%!! The SBD formula has stumbled a touch on upset picks in the playoffs, losing 0.95 units. (Still +22.43 units on upset picks for the season.)

My @SBD formula did miss on the upset pick, though

Now💰+22.43 units💰this season ahead of #SuperBowl https://t.co/GSmwt1i4sN

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 31, 2022

The formula has also had a really nice run on betting over/unders in the playoffs, going 8-4 so far.

All this is to say, the formula is working! So let’s take a look at its picks for Super Bowl 56. Let’s start with its predicted score for the 2022 Super Bowl:

• Los Angeles Rams: 25.1
• Cincinnati Bengals: 23.7

You can throw out all the talk about upset picks above, since the formula is siding with the favorite to win this one. It has the game ending with a smaller margin of victory for the Rams than the spread would suggest, however.

The Rams’ predicted margin of victory based off the score above is just 1.4 points. Even though it’s saying the Rams will win, there isn’t going to be any value in betting them to win. The value based on the predicted score lies in the Bengals moneyline at +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Those +170 odds imply a 37% probability for the Bengals to win. If we look at the predicted margin of loss for Cincinnati (1.4 points) and round it up to a 1.5-point spread, we get moneyline odds of +105 (or so), which turns into a 48.8% implied probability to win the game. This gives you a pretty good edge, but you are still more likely than not to lose the bet. So play the moneyline as you feel comfortable.

The formula isn’t overly confident in betting either side to cover the spread either. Based on its predicted score, it has the Bengals covering with an ATS margin of victory of only 3.1 points. So it’s saying take the points with Cincinnati, but don’t hammer it based solely on its advice. (You can check out some of the major wagers on the big game so far on our page tracking the Super Bowl’s biggest bets.)

Unfortunately, the formula is also predicting a final score where the total points are very close to the betting line being offered at sportsbooks (48.5). Its predicted score has a total of 48.8 points being scored, which is only over the total by 0.3 points. Proceed with caution on this one.

SBD Formula’s Super Bowl Picks:

• Moneyline Pick: LA Rams (-175 at Caesars Sportsbook)
• ATS Pick: Bengals +4.5 (best line at BetMGM)
• Total Pick: Over 48.5 (best line at Barstool Sportsbook)

Expert Picks for 2022 Super Bowl

SportsBettingDime’s experts have been submitting winning NFL picks all season. They have each shared their predicted score for the Super Bowl, best bet, and favorite Super Bowl prop. You can jump to one of them below or continue scrolling to see them all.

Matt McEwan | Sascha Paruk | Ryan Metivier | Mitch Robson | Ryan Sura

Matt McEwan – SBD’s Editor-in-Chief & Brains Behind the Formula

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Rams 24 – 21
• Best Bet: Bengals +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: First Offensive Play of the Game to Be a Pass (+115) at DraftKings

I’ll keep the commentary on my pick pretty quick, since you’ve probably realized it looks very similar to the pick above. Boring? Sure. But how can the man who created this wildly successful formula turn his back on it now? I live and die by my SBD formula. (I am also very tempted to go with the Bengals moneyline as well, especially since historic ATS Super Bowl trends say the team who wins the game almost always covers the spread.)

Moving to my favorite prop for the big game, I really like the odds DraftKings is offering on the first play of the game being a pass.

Three of the last five Super Bowls have opened with a pass—the Patriots ran the ball on the first play of Super Bowl 53 against the Rams. The Rams’ first offensive play has been a pass in two of their three playoff games so far, and the same is true for the Bengals as well. These are not conservative offenses.

These two defenses rank fifth and sixth, respectively, against the run as well. At +115 odds, I think this is a great bet. Other sportsbooks are listing pass around +100 odds.

Sascha Paruk – NFL Editor

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 30 – 27
• Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
• Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Ja’Marr Chase Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (+595) at Barstool Sportsbook

One plausible game script sees Rams DC Raheem Morris paying extra-close attention to Ja’Marr Chase. Not counting the final game of the regular season – when Chase only played a few snaps – he was held under 39.5 yards four times in the other 16 games.

We only need a 15% implied probability for these +595 odds to be worth a wager.

Ryan Metivier – NFL Editor

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Rams 27 – 23
• Best Bet: Bengals +4.5 at BetMGM
• Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Both Teams to Score 1+ FG + Over 2.5 Total FGs (-150)

The Rams have been here before, just three years ago. And have been building towards this second chance since with high-priced veterans and the trade for Matthew Stafford. I think Sean McVay will have learned from his first Super Bowl experience. The Rams defense versus the Bengals offensive line is a huge mismatch. Joe Burrow was sacked the most of any QB in 2021, 51 times. That’s four more than anyone else. The Rams had the third-most sacks on the season with 50. Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller should be causing chaos for Burrow all night. The Bengals story is great. But I think you need to walk before you run, fail before you succeed, as the saying goes.

Keep in mind the Bengals were getting boat raced in the first half in the AFC Championship. If the Chiefs kick a field goal to close out the half and Mahomes does anything at all in the second half, KC is in this game. The Rams have taken their knocks and will prevail this time around, albeit in a close win.

Looking to my FG parlay prop, the Bengals’ Evan McPherson has been so money there is actual talk of him as a potential, yet unlikely, Super Bowl MVP. He’s kicked 4/4 field goals in all three playoff games this year. The Rams’ Matt Gay has gone 2/2, 3/4 and 2/3 in the playoffs himself. Both QBs should be able to move the ball and put each of these reliable kickers into range for a few field goals in this game.

Mitch Robson – SBD Editor

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 26 – 24
• Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel
• Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Leonard Floyd to Record a Sack (+130) at DraftKings

To avoid regurgitating the talking points we’ve heard for two weeks of build-up, I actually think the Cincinnati defensive front against the Rams O-line is what wins Cincy this game. The Bengals have been able to generate consistent pressure just sending three or four linemen – and I expect Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to make their presence felt early and often on Matthew Stafford, who’s relying on a 40-year old Andrew Whitworth at LT.

Leonard Floyd has a great chance to record a sack, and you’re getting him at plus-odds to do so. Seven of his 9.5 sacks came at SoFi Stadium this season, and with Cincy likely double teaming Aaron Donald and Von Miller as much as possible, Floyd should have some 1-on-1 matchups to exploit on the edge.

Ryan Sura – SBD Editor / Bengals Fan

• Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 34 – 31
• Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel
• Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Cooper Kupp Longest Reception Over 28.5 (-135) at DraftKings

The Bengals have upset everyone to this point, so why start betting against them now? I understand the Rams have an elite pass rush with Aaron Donald running ship, but is it THAT much better than the Chiefs or Titans? Joe Burrow is the number one ranked QB under pressure this season, so at this point his bad offensive line isn’t as much of factor anymore. The Titans sacked him eight times and they still won that game. Joe Burrow is simply ready for the big moment.

I do really love Kupp over 28.5 longest reception. He’s hit this prop in 15 out of 20 games this season and is averaging 36 yards as his average longest reception this year.

You can see more of our Super Bowl content below:

• Super Bowl Odds
• Tracking the Super Bowl’s Biggest Bets
• Super Bowl Betting Promos
• How to Bet on the Super Bowl
• Printable Super Bowl Props

The post NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 2022 Compared to Expert Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

As we continue to approach kickoff of the 2022 Super Bowl, we are seeing more and more big bets, or major wagers, placed on the big game. We are currently seeing 27 bets of at least six figures on Super Bowl 56, as well as the largest mobile wager ever taken.

These major wagers on the Super Bowl are pretty spread out between moneyline and ATS bets, with both the LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals seeing significant money. You’ll find the list of reported major wagers (at least six figures) on Super Bowl 56 below.

Biggest Bets Placed on 2022 Super Bowl

The largest bet placed on Super Bowl 56 was $4,534,000 on the Cincinnati Bengals to win. This bet was placed by none other than Mattress Mack, who got +170 odds on the Bengals moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook. If Cincinnati pulls off the upset, Mack will win $7,707,800 and return $12,241,800.

But Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale apparently wasn’t done yet. On Friday morning, he doubled down on the Bengals moneyline, adding another $5,000,000 bet at Caesars Sportsbook Louisiana. He now has a total of $9,534,000 on the Bengals to win. After this bet, his total profit would be $16,207,800! (He would return $25,741,800.)

Mack had the only wager of at least six figures on the Bengals to win up until Thursday night, when one bettor placed a $1,000,000 parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook. The parlay combines the Bengals moneyline (+170) and the game total to go under 48.5.

There are two other notable single wagers on Cincinnati, but they are both bets on the Bengals to cover.

There are 18 wagers of at least six figures on the Rams right now, 11 being on them to win and the rest on them to cover the full game line or 1Q/1H lines. Last year we had 12 reported wagers of at least six figures, three of which were seven figures.

The three notable bets above that were placed at non-US books are all from rapper Drake, who placed the bets up in Canada. If you want to see which side the public money is being bet on for Super Bowl 56, check out our NFL public betting trends.

The two bettors who got the Bengals at +4.5 must be feeling good as they’re watching the spread move down to four at many sportsbooks. The Rams moneyline bettor who got them at -180 is also sitting on a nice line, as LA has become as big as -200 favorites in the odds to win the Super Bowl.

Although, based off historic ATS Super Bowl trends, this bettor should have just laid the points with the Rams. The team that wins the Super Bowl is 47-6-2 against the spread. We have not seen a team win the Super Bowl without covering the spread since 2009—Super Bowl 43.

MAJOR BET ALERT 🚨

This bettor just dropped $240,000 on the Rams 👀 pic.twitter.com/amhERxaDZn

— PointsBet Sportsbook (@PointsBetUSA) February 5, 2022

The bettor who placed their $240,000 on the Rams to win at -200 odds can’t enjoy watching some sportsbooks moving LA’s moneyline to as long as -175. It’s already a lot to risk for the return they’re getting, so I hope for their sake we don’t see the line continue trending that way.

Mattress Mack’s Super Bowl 56 Bet Is Largest Mobile Wager in Sports Betting History

Though I’m confident he’s not the only one who has made the drive from Texas to Louisiana to place a bet since the state launched online sports betting on January 28, it’s unlikely anyone else is betting the same amount of money when they get into Louisiana as Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale did.

The single biggest wager of all-time has now been made at #CaesarsSportsbook‼️

After wagering $4.5M, @MattressMack just placed $𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 more on the Bengals (+170) to win #SBLVI on the Caesars Sportsbook app in Louisiana.

Total potential win: $16,207,800#BetLikeACaesar pic.twitter.com/YuuG5oUGDN

— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) February 11, 2022

Mattress Mack’s $4.5 million wager on the Bengals to win was the largest mobile wager in sports betting history, according to Caesars Sportsbook, who took his bet in Louisiana. It was also the second-largest bet ever on the Super Bowl.

This was all true until he broke his own record, laying another $5 million down on the Bengals Friday morning.

The Return of the Mack for the Super Bowl‼️@MattressMack just wagered $4,534,000 on the #CaesarsSportsbook app in Louisiana on the Bengals (+170) to win over the Rams.

Potential win: $7,707,800

This marks the single biggest mobile wager of all-time 👀#BetLikeACaesar pic.twitter.com/pBJjtU9x49

— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) February 4, 2022

Mattress Mack has become known for his major wagers over the last few years. He hasn’t really been known for winning them, though. Here’s a quick look at some of his previous big bets:

• $1 Million on the University of Houston to win the 2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament (Lost)
• $3.46 Million on the Buccaneers to cover in Super Bowl 55 (Won)
• $13 Million on the Astros to win the 2019 World Series (Lost)

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK NY

Your First Bet is on Caesars, Up to $1,250! Plus Get 1,000 Tier Credits & 1,000 Reward Credits

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDIMEFULL

CODE: SBDIMEFULL

SIGNUP BONUS

UP TO $1,250
ON CAESARS

CLAIM OFFER

If you’re looking to fade McIngvale, you can get the Rams at -175 at Caesars Sportsbook right now, which is the best price available. But be sure you claim one of the Caesars Sportsbook promos we have available before signing up.

If you’re looking for more Super Bowl content, or want help in finding the best sportsbook for you this Super Bowl, check out these pages:

• Super Bowl Betting Bonuses
• Super Bowl Betting Apps
• Rams vs Bengals Matchup Breakdown
• Printable Super Bowl Props
• How to Bet on the Super Bowl
• Types of Super Bowl Bets
• Super Bowl Prop Bets Explained

The post Tracking the Biggest Bets Made on Super Bowl 56 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

There are four things your Super Bowl party absolutely needs in order to be labeled a great one: (1) the game, (2) never-ending Super Bowl snacks, (3) alcohol, which should be consumed responsibly only by those of legal age, and (4) a Super Bowl props sheet. As always, SportsBettingDime.com has you covered for the latter with our printable Super Bowl props sheet.

We do know and appreciate that some people watching the Super Bowl this year don’t know who Zac Taylor or Cam Akers are. So instead of making all types of fans answer very specific football questions, we offer two different sheets: one for the hardcore football fan, and one for the more casual fan. (I like to fill out both!)

You’ll find both printable props sheets for the 2022 Super Bowl below, and will want to follow @SBD and @SBD_Matt on Twitter, or bookmark this page to come back for the live answers. (See the bottom of the page.)

Super Bowl Props Sheet for Hardcore NFL Fans

>> Download Printable Super Bowl Props Sheet for Hardcore Football Fans <<

Just so everyone is clear, any time you see a “___” (blank line) in the sheet, it requires you to fill out your own answer.

When choosing an answer for Question 17, make sure you consider the “+25.5” next to Chase’s name. This means he will have 25.5 receiving yards added to his total at the end of the game. Also, in Question 14, the 4th quarter option includes overtime, should the game be tied after 60 minutes.

I also have all my guests fill in a tiebreaker question at the bottom of the page before submitting. I make everyone predict the total number of points scored in the game. But you’re welcome to go with any tiebreaker you prefer.

If any of you hardcore football fans are looking for some action through an online sportsbook, be sure you check out our favorite Super Bowl betting promotions and Super Bowl betting apps.

Super Bowl Props Sheet for the Casual Fan

>> Download Printable Super Bowl Props Sheet for Casual Fans <<

A couple notes for clarification: (1) in Question 5, we do not start counting until the Super Bowl broadcast has begun; (2) in Question 14, the 4th quarter option includes overtime; (3) in Question 15, the “Multiple” option gets you any combo of the five artists listed; (4) in Question 25, the Super Bowl MVP does not have to explicitly say “thank you” to anyone, just reference them first in order for it to be the winning choice.

As is the case in the hardcore sheet, be sure everyone fills a tiebreaking question at the bottom.

Props Sheet Answers

I’ll be updating the table above live during Super Bowl 56 as each answer comes up. Make sure you are refreshing the page during the game in order to see the answers appear in the table above.

Need Some Help Filling Out Your Props Sheet?

In the days leading up to Super Bowl 56, I’ll also drop some links below to our other Super Bowl content and resources to help you make the best picks on your props sheets:

• Rams vs Bengals Matchup
• 2022 Super Bowl Odds
• Super Bowl Odds History
• Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds
• Super Bowl National Anthem Length History
• 2022 Super Bowl National Anthem Odds
• Super Bowl Coin Toss Results
• Super Bowl Halftime Show History
• Color of Gatorade at Super Bowl
• 2022 Super Bowl Gatorade Color Odds
• Fun Super Bowl Trends
• Historic Super Bowl ATS Trends

The post Printable Super Bowl 56 Props Sheet appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With the NFL Conference Championships coming up on Sunday, January 30, we have just one more NFL Sunday this season that contains multiple games. Please join me in honoring this Sunday by betting a good handful of NFL player props.

I have gathered all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders, as well as the anytime touchdown odds and odds to score the first touchdown for both the AFC and NFC Championships. Even with fewer NFL props to choose from, I had no difficulty in highlighting eight that I’ll be betting this weekend.

I went 4-5 (+0.58 units) last week, and am now +1.32 units in the playoffs. Looking back further, I am +7.94 units in my last 14 weeks. You’ll find my picks in each section below the odds tables.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All props as of January 28.

It’s not a surprise to see Patrick Mahomes with the highest over/under for passing yards in the NFL Conference Championships. Mahomes has been on a tear through two games in the playoffs so far. His betting line for Sunday sits at 293.5, with Joe Burrow a close second at 288.5.

Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, has the lowest passing yards over/under at 232.5. Matthew Stafford’s betting line is set at 279.5.

Are you a little new to betting player props? Check out our how-to guide on prop betting.

Best Passing Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Patrick Mahomes OVER 290.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Patrick Mahomes hates losing. He doesn’t lose often, but when he does, he generally gets revenge.

Looking to this season, Mahomes threw for 260 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first game against the Chargers this season—far from a performance he would be satisfied with. The Chiefs lost the game 30-24. He responded in their second meeting this season with 410 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

He also lost to Buffalo earlier this year, where he threw for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions—again, not a very Mahomes-like game. His answer was 378 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the same Bills.

We even saw it back in the 2019 season, when Mahomes went 19-of-35 for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in a loss to the Texans. He came back with 321 yards and five touchdowns in a 51-31 playoff win over the Texans that same season.

In Week 17, Mahomes lost to the Bengals, posting 259 yards and two touchdowns—not exactly a bad outing, but not one he’s writing home about either. He’s going to rip this Cincinnati defense apart on Sunday. (Hence why the Chiefs are as big as 7.5-point favorites against the Bengals on Sunday.)

2) Matthew Stafford UNDER 282.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM; risk 1 unit

Matthew Stafford was absolutely fantastic last weekend against the Buccaneers. He threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns, posting a 121.2 passer rating. But I feel that’s making sportsbooks / the public forget about his two games against the 49ers this season.

9️⃣ TO 1️⃣0️⃣ TO SET UP THE WIN! pic.twitter.com/1hrjkOa4lQ

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 23, 2022

In Week 10, Stafford completed 26 of 41 passes for just 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against the Niners. This was a game the Rams lost 31-10 in San Francisco. In Week 18, which was a very important game for the Rams with the NFC West title on the line, he completed 21 of 32 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Simply put, he has not been very good against San Francisco this season. He’s only averaging 240.5 passing yards per game. But not many quarterbacks have been very good against this 49ers defense that ranks sixth against the pass.

They just held Aaron Rodgers to 225 yards and Dak Prescott to 254 in the playoffs. San Francisco has not allowed a player to throw for 280 yards since Week 14 when Joe Burrow did it. They’re allowing an average of just 220.8 passing yards per game in their last six contests. Outside of Burrow, Jared Goff (in Week 1) is the only other player this season to throw for at least 280 yards against this defense.

NFL Rushing Props

Elijah Mitchell has the highest over/under for rushing yards this weekend, with his betting line set at 69.5. Cam Akers follows closely behind at 63.5, and Joe Mixon’s is set at 55.5. No one else has an over/under of at least 40 for Sunday’s games.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Deebo Samuel OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

The Rams only allowed 3.9 yards per carry this regular season, which was fifth-best in the NFL. In 19 games this season, which includes their two playoff games, they have only allowed more than 92 rushing yards seven times. Two of those games came against the 49ers.

San Francisco rushed for 156 and 135 yards against LA in their two meetings this season. Deebo Samuel accounted for 36 and 45 of those rushing yards, respectively. What’s to note here is that he racked up the 36 yards in the first game on only five carries (7.2 yards per carry), and the 45 on eight carries (5.63 yards per carry).

In the Niners’ two playoff games thus far, Deebo has seen ten carries in each. He had never seen more than eight carries in a regular season game. Kyle Shanahan wants to ensure Deebo has every opportunity to put his stamp on the game, and he has been the 49ers’ catalyst on offense in both.

Shanahan’s zone running scheme obviously gives the Rams some trouble, and I suspect San Francisco to continue taking the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. I like Deebo to see another 10+ carries in this one, especially with the 49ers only being 3.5-point underdogs. With that type of volume, this rushing over/under is too low.

NFL Receiving Props

Cooper Kupp has the weekend’s highest receiving yards over/under with a line of 101.5 as he takes on the 49ers for a third time this season. Ja’Marr Chase, who has been red-hot lately, has the next highest line at 85.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Tyreek Hill OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Remember those two Chiefs revenge games from this season that I discussed in the Mahomes pick? (It was the second games against both the Chargers and Bills after having lost to them earlier in the season.) Tyreek Hill had 13 targets in each of those revenge games, turning them into 12 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, and 11 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown against the Bills last week.

Two of the fastest players in the NFL match up on Sunday. Who's ready for some fireworks? 💥@cheetah | @Real10jayy__

📺: #CINvsKC — Sunday 3pm ET on CBS⁣
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/T8vIJlXx59

— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2022

When Mahomes is out for blood, he looks for Hill. With Hill also having a pretty quiet game against the Bengals in Week 17—just six receptions for 40 yards on ten targets—I foresee Hill being force-fed some targets to get him going early.

While I don’t mind the over on Hill’s receptions line (6.5), I prefer the receiving yards line due to his explosiveness. He only needs a few receptions to rack up 77+ yards.

2) Joe Mixon OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

After Ja’Marr Chase absolutely roasted the Chiefs in Week 17 for 266 yards and three touchdowns, and has followed it up with back-to-back 100+ yard performances in the playoffs, I simply cannot see Steve Spagnuolo going into this game without a plan to slow the rookie.

I appreciate the respect he is giving the rest of the Bengals offensive weapons in saying the Chiefs will not be able to just “commit two people to it and you’re home free.” I also agree with him to an extent. It’s not like Chase is the entire offense. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and C.J. Uzomah are also capable of making plays—not Ja’Marr Chase-like plays, though.

So I do feel there will be extra attention given to Chase, but I don’t feel any of the three receivers named above will be the beneficiaries. I think it will be Joe Mixon.

The whole world saw how much trouble Cincinnati has protecting their quarterback last week, when Joe Burrow was sacked nine times by the Titans. This week he’ll have Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Melvin Ingram coming after him.

I foresee the result being more quick dump offs to Mixon in the flat. In his last four games, Mixon is averaging 6.5 targets and 47.3 receiving yards. He has gone over 29.5 receiving yards in three of the four. I expect to see a very similar output for Mixon in this one too, especially with the likelihood of Cincinnati needing points.

Touchdown Props

Cooper Kupp has the best odds to score a touchdown in the NFL Conference Championships. He’s given -150 odds to find the endzone, which converts to an implied probability of 60%. His +500 odds to score his respective game’s first touchdown are also the best odds for Sunday.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Conference Championships

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

1. Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown (+175): McKinnon has taken advantage of the opportunity that presented itself with both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams getting hurt. He has now started in both of Kansas City’s playoff games and is seeing a lot of looks. McKinnon has seen 22 carries and 13 targets in the last two weeks, and has also scored a touchdown in two of the last three. There are some sportsbooks giving McKinnon shorter than even odds to score, but you can find him at this price at Caesars Sportsbook. (0.33 units)
2. CJ Uzomah anytime touchdown (+240): With plenty of attention likely being devoted to Ja’Marr Chase, I am looking for secondary players from the Bengals offense to get red zone looks. Uzomah has seen at least six targets in four straight games now and caught a touchdown against the Raiders in the Wild Card round. (0.25 units)
3. Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+125): Mitchell didn’t pull through for us last weekend, but if sportsbooks are going to leave this bad line out there, I have to bet it again. The rookie back has a touchdown in seven of 13 games this season, and is still the lead back of a run-first offense. (0.25 units)

Enjoy the last NFL Sunday of the season that features more than one game! Check out our NFL odds page before you make any moneyline, against the spread, or game total bet to ensure you get the best line possible.

The post NFL Conference Championship Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, January 30 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The NFL Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs kicks off on Saturday, January 22 and runs through Sunday, January 23 with two games being played on each day. As kickoff nears, sportsbooks have released many NFL player props for the four games this weekend.

It’s the lightest slate of games we have had to deal with this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bad lines out there to pick on.

I went 3-2 on my props in Wild Card Weekend, winning 0.74 units. I’m now +6.62 units in my last 13 weeks, and have another nine picks to offer for the NFL Divisional Round. You’ll find my picks in each section below the odds tables. (You can use the links below to quickly jump to one section, if you’d prefer.)

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All props as of January 21.

The majority of quarterbacks left in the Divisional Round of the 2022 NFL playoffs have pretty large over/unders set for their passing totals. Tom Brady has the highest passing yards over/under of the weekend, with his line set at 290.5. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford all have over/unders of at least 280.5 as well.

The lowest passing total of the week is Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards over/under of 231.5. Ryan Tannehill only has him beat by four yards.

Unsure what all these numbers above mean? Check out our guide on how to bet props.

Best Passing Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Tom Brady OVER 26.5 Completions (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Tom Brady has gone over 26.5 completions in each of his last three games, and five of his last seven. In total, he’s gone over in 11 of 18 games this season, and had a season-high 41 completions against LA in Week 3. Brady averages 28.5 completions per game this year, including the playoffs.

The Rams defense only allows 4.0 yards per carry, fifth-best in the NFL, but rank 22nd against the pass. They haven’t given up many completions lately, but I am crediting that to Kyler Murray not being able to operate quick-game from the pocket and a few non-passing offenses—San Francisco and Baltimore. Tom Brady is different. Year after year, Brady has shown an ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly.

I do appreciate that Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown would be players Brady would love to have in this matchup, as they create a ton of separation underneath. But Brady has enough to work with between Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, and Giovani Bernard. (Yes, I said Giovani Bernard, who is going to play the James White role.)

With Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, and Von Miller all coming after him, I suspect we’ll see the king of quick game operating on Sunday. Sportsbooks wouldn’t be listing the Buccaneers as 2.5-point favorites over the Rams if Tom Brady wasn’t more than capable of carving up a good defense underneath.

2) Joe Burrow UNDER 24.5 Completions (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

Joe Burrow completed 24 passes last weekend against the Raiders, and has gone under 24.5 completions in 11 of his 17 games. He only averages 22.9 completions per game this season (including playoffs).

The Titans have allowed the third-most completions in the NFL this season, but Derrick Henry’s return is the x-factor for me. Tennessee is going to pound away with Henry this weekend, taking a few yards per play in order to keep the explosive Bengals offense on the sideline.

Most 50+ yard completions this season

Matthew Stafford 10
Joe Burrow 7
Russell Wilson 6
Aaron Rodgers 5
Derek Carr 5
Carson Wentz 5 pic.twitter.com/6Mayi4Rhh9

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 24, 2021

Cincinnati is a big-play offense, though. So even if Tennessee is unable to kill large amounts of the clock on each drive, I foresee Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd taking big chunks at a time against a pretty weak Titans secondary. Burrow just won’t have the opportunity to complete this many passes.

This line is listed at 23.5 at FanDuel and Caesars Sportsbook has 24.5, but with the under listed at -130 odds.

You can find all the player over/unders for this game in our Bengals vs Titans props article.

NFL Rushing Props

In spite of Derrick Henry making his return from the IR, Elijah Mitchell once again has the highest over/under for rushing yards in the NFL Divisional Round. Mitchell’s line is set at 80.5, while Henry’s is 79.5.

Though Leonard Fournette and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are both expected to make their returns from injury this weekend, no sportsbooks have released props for either of these two yet.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Deebo Samuel OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Since Week 11, including their Wild Card game, Deebo Samuel is averaging 7.25 carries per game. Samuel has turned those carries into 47.4 rushing yards per game. He has only gone over 38.5 yards in four of those eight, but has hit the over in each of his last two.

His most recent game, San Francisco’s upset over Dallas last weekend, saw Deebo carry the ball ten times for 72 yards. I’ve said this before and will say it again: Kyle Shanahan will find ways to ensure his best playmakers touch the ball.

In what is expected to be a game played in below-zero temperatures with potential snow, I don’t like the odds of Shanahan trusting Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball a ton, especially when you consider the injuries Jimmy G is also dealing with and how ineffective he was back in their Week 3 matchup against the Packers.

This means Deebo will see a good number of carries against a Packers defense that’s allowing the third-most yards per carry (4.7) in the NFL. Gimme this over!

Looking for more props to bet for this one? Check out our 49ers vs Packers player props.

NFL Receiving Props

Though he was a little quiet last weekend, Cooper Kupp still heads into the NFL Divisional Round with the highest over/under for receiving yards. Kupp’s line is listed at 99.5, slightly edging out Davante Adams, whose receiving over/under is set at 94.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for NFL Divisional Round

1) Ja’Marr Chase OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at DraftKings; risk 0.5 units

For all the same reasons as last week—the Bengals look to their star rookie early and often in big games and he is simply un-guardable—I’m betting the over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards.

In his last three full games, Chase is averaging 169 receiving yards per. He has seen 34 targets in those games too.

The Titans defense only allows 3.9 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the league, and do not have any corner who can keep up with Chase. If the Bengals do wind up in desperation mode, as I suspect they will with Derrick Henry chewing up big portions of clock, Chase will see even more looks.

Good things happen for Cincinnati when the ball is in Chase’s hands. There’s no way they allow him to leave this game without putting his stamp on it.

This line is as high as 79.5 at some sportsbooks. Take the DraftKings line at 76.5.

(You can also find the moneyline, spread, and total with more picks for the game in our Bengals vs Titans odds preview, if you’re looking for more ways to bet the game.)

2) Randall Cobb OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

Apparently Randall Cobb explodes when he returns from lengthy injuries with the Packers. In 2013 Cobb missed ten straight games, only to return from injury in Week 17 and post 55 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Bears. He then missed the final two weeks of the 2016 regular season before coming back with five receptions for 116 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants in Wild Card Weekend.

Cobb has missed Green Bay’s last five games and has had six weeks of rest now when you include the Packers’ bye in the first round of the playoffs.

Randall Cobb: 144.2 passer rating when targeted this season (1st among all WRs)

Cobb returns this week 👀 pic.twitter.com/HVhdfsGUpZ

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 20, 2022

While Cobb is not the player he was in 2013 or 2016, and his return is certainly not tilting the 49ers vs Packers odds in any way, he is still someone Aaron Rodgers trusts. He has gone over 25.5 receiving yards in six of 12 games, which includes four receptions for 95 yards in the last game he played.

I suspect the 49ers to give Davante Adams a lot of attention, leaving room for Cobb to work in his return.
Most other sportsbooks have the line at 26.5 with -115 odds on each side.

Touchdown Props

In his triumphant return, King Henry has the best odds of any player during the NFL Divisional Round to score a touchdown, as well as the best odds to score the first touchdown. Henry has -190 odds to score a touchdown, meaning a $100 bet only wins you $52.63.

Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp are tied for the next-best odds to score a touchdown this weekend, with each player given -135 odds to find the endzone. These odds imply that Cupp and Adams each have a 57.5% chance of scoring a touchdown.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for NFL Divisional Round

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

1. Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+120): While I do suspect Deebo Samuel to get his carries, Elijah Mitchell’s workload shouldn’t suffer as a result. Mitchell has seen at least 21 carries in each of his last six games. He has scored a touchdown in seven of 12 games this season, including four of his last five. We should not be getting odds this long (0.5 units)
2. Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-135): Adams has eight touchdowns in his last seven games, and has scored at least once in five of those games. Most sportsbooks have Adams around -160 to -170 to score a touchdown this weekend, but DraftKings is offering him at the -135 line. Pounce while it’s available. (0.5 units)
3. Odell Beckham Jr anytime touchdown (+175): This seems to be a pick I can just leave in this article each week. For some reason, sportsbooks are not adjusting OBJ’s touchdown odds in spite of him scoring week after week. Beckham now has a touchdown in six of his last eight games after finding the endzone against the Cardinals last weekend. You’ll find this line (the best one) at BetMGM. (0.33 units)
4. Gabriel Davis anytime touchdown (+300): The Bills have so many red zone threats in their offense, and Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Dawson Knox, and Devin Singletary tend to get most of the attention. However, Gabriel Davis has blossomed into quite the red zone threat, catching a touchdown in four of his last six games. In a Bills vs Chiefs game where the total is as high as 54.5, I’m expecting many different players to get in on the action. At +300 odds, Davis is a great value play. (0.25 units)

Good luck with all your betting this weekend, and (as always) be sure to check out our NFL odds page to shop for the best lines on each game.

The post 2022 NFL Playoff Props – Best Player Props to Bet for the NFL Divisional Round appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

With NFL wildcard weekend upon us, the NFL player props available to us have dwindled thanks to just six games this weekend. But there is still plenty of value to be had if you take the extra time to look for it – I did this for us!

I’m also coming into the week feeling extra motivated to bounce back from an awful 2-6 (-1.75 units) showing in Week 17. I’m now +5.88 units in my last 12 weeks.

You’ll find my picks below in each section, as well as all the lines for each category of NFL player props.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

All props as of January 14.

Dak Prescott has the highest passing total set for Wildcard Weekend. Prescott’s over/under for passing yards is listed at 282.5 for his game against the 49ers. He has a few quarterbacks just behind him in the 270’s, including Matthew Stafford (276.5), Patrick Mahomes (275.5), and Tom Brady (273.5). The lowest passing total of the week belongs to Jalen Hurts at 199.5.

Best Passing Props to Bet for Wildcard Weekend

1) Kyler Murray OVER 253.5 Passing Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Kyler Murray averaged 270.5 passing yards per game this season. He has gone over 253 yards in nine of 14 games this season, including both games against the Rams this season. Murray threw for 268 in their first meeting and 383 in their second.

The Rams rank 22nd against the pass and have allowed Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo to each go over 300 passing yards against them in the last three weeks.

The Cardinals vs Rams game has the second-highest game total of wildcard weekend, which makes sense since the two teams combined for 110 points in their two matchups this season. I suspect we’ll see lots more firepower from these two offenses on Monday.

The result will be Kyler having to throw to keep Arizona in it, and he’s shown success against this Rams defense this season when taking to the air.

NFL Rushing Props

Elijah Mitchell has the highest rushing over/under of NFL wildcard weekend, set at 80.5 for San Francisco’s game against Dallas. Mitchell just edges out Joe Mixon, whose over/under is listed at 76.5.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for Wildcard Weekend

1) Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-125); risk 0.5 units

If Damien Harris is unable to go Saturday, this becomes an absolute steal of a bet. But Harris is currently listed as questionable on the Patriots’ injury report, and seems to be on the right side of questionable. Even if the Patriots’ lead back does suit up, I still like this line for Rhamondre Stevenson.

The rookie ran the ball very well against the Jaguars in Week 17, going for 107 on 19 carries. He also saw plenty of work, 24 carries that he turned into 78 yards, in New England’s Week 14 matchup with the Bills thanks to Harris leaving early with an injury.

Though the wind isn’t expected to be a major factor in the Patriots vs Bills wildcard matchup, as it was in Week 14, it is expected to be very cold. The weather report is calling for single digits at best all night, likely dipping below zero.

I’m suspecting we see Buffalo’s offense struggle a little with the extreme cold, allowing New England to keep pounding the ball throughout the game. Even if Harris is fully healthy, which doesn’t seem to be the case, I still like Stevenson to get enough touches to go over his 39.5 rushing total.

NFL Receiving Props

Cooper Kupp sits well above the field in terms of receiving over/unders for Wildcard Weekend. Kupp’s receiving yards total is set at 104.5, while the next best is Stefon Diggs’ 71.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for Wildcard Weekend

1) Ja’Marr Chase OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115); risk 0.5 units

Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t really a factor in Cincinnati’s 32-13 victory over the Raiders earlier this season. He only caught three balls for 32 yards, but Joe Burrow only threw for 148 in the game as well.

However, in the Bengals biggest games this season, they’ve looked to get their rookie receiver involved early and often. He’s seen at least ten targets now in five games: two games against the Ravens where he totalled 326 receiving yards, a close loss to the Packers where he posted 159 yards, a win over the Chiefs where he went off for 266 yards, and then a game where his Bengals got crushed by the Browns.

There is no way Cincinnati comes into this playoff game without plenty of plans to get the ball in Chase’s hands. When they target him, it pays off.

Though he has only gone over 69 yards in eight of 17 games, Week 18 shouldn’t really count, Chase is averaging 85.6 receiving yards per game this season, and has hit the over in three of his last four where he has played more than five snaps.

Touchdown Props

The player with the best odds to score a touchdown in Wildcard Weekend is Cooper Kupp at -165. Joe Mixon is a close second at -160. The two are joined by Leonard Fournette for the best odds to score their respective game’s first touchdown. They are all seeing +550 odds.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Wildcard Weekend

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

1. Odell Beckham Jr anytime touchdown (+140): OBJ has a touchdown in five of his last seven games now, one of which came against the Cardinals in Week 14. We should not be getting odds this long anymore. He’s as short as +115 at some sportsbooks. (0.5 units)
2. Diontae Johnson anytime touchdown (+185): Johnson has a touchdown in two of his last three games, one being a Week 16 game against the Chiefs. The Steelers will be put in a negative game script early, and Ben Roethlisberger loves Johnson. The third-year pro has seen double-digit targets in 12 of 16 games. (0.33 units)

The post NFL Playoff Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Wildcard Weekend appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The 2021 NFL regular season is now in the books after a thrilling slate of games in Week 18. The 2022 NFL Playoff bracket is now complete, with seven teams from each conference making the postseason.

The NFL Playoffs will start with Wildcard Weekend on January 15 and conclude with Super Bowl 56 on February 13. We have put together a printable NFL Playoff bracket for you to download, print, and fill out to compete with the world. It’s time you showed everyone your true NFL genius.

NFL Playoff Bracket

>> Download Your 2022 NFL Playoff Bracket <<

How to Fill Out Your Bracket

If you’re unfamiliar with how the NFL playoff format works, here are a few things to keep in mind when filling out your bracket:

1. This is not a traditional bracket where teams move through to predetermined spots after winning. This is why there are no lines connecting the teams from the wildcard (first) round to specific fields in the divisional (second) round. The no. 1 seed will play the worst team (lowest seed) you have advancing to the second round. The two leftover teams play each other.
   1. For example, if you have all higher seeds winning (2, 3, and 4), then the 4-seed would play the 1 in the Divisional Round. Then the 2 and 3-seeds would play each other.
   2. If you have the 6 and 7 seeds both pulling off upsets in Wild Card Weekend, the 7-seed would play the 1 in the Divisional Round. The 6-seed would play whoever you have winning between the 4 and 5.
2. These are not playoff series like the NBA and NHL. It’s a one game do-or-die in each round.
3. Be sure to fill in your tiebreaker, which is the total number of points you believe will be scored in the Super Bowl

How to Score the Brackets

You are free to set up your own scoring system, but here’s how we will be scoring our NFL playoff brackets:

• Award 1 point for every correct pick in the first round (Wild Card Round)
• Award 2 points for every correct pick in the second round (Divisional Round)
• Award 4 points for every correct pick in the third round (Conference Championships)
• Award 8 points for having the correct Super Bowl winner
• *Optional Bonus Point* – Award 1 bonus point for every correct matchup someone has starting in the second round (Divisional Round)

We will be counting the bonus points, but understand that some don’t like playing this way.

Need Help with NFL Playoff Picks?

There’s no shame in educating yourself and ensuring you are loaded with every bit of information available. Here are the places I’d suggest looking before filling out your bracket:

• Super Bowl 56 Odds
• NFL Odds
• NFL Public Betting Trends

You can also follow me (@SBD_Matt) on Twitter. I’ll be putting out betting info on each game, including public betting trends, team trends, line movement, as well as my SBD formula’s picks.

2022 NFL Playoffs Schedule

With the NFL Playoffs being single-elimination games, we have the entire schedule ahead of time.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Schedule

All times are in EST.

NFL Divisional Round Schedule

NFL Conference Championship Schedule

Super Bowl Schedule

The post Printable 2022 NFL Playoff Bracket – Make Your Picks Right Through to Super Bowl 56 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.