With the NFL season in the rearview mirror, Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan turn their attention to the NBA in Episode 9 of the SBD Odds Pod, brought to you by SportsBettingDime.com. Frank and Matt focus on the NBA MVP odds after LeBron James has taken a commanding lead over the field.

Before diving into the odds, however, Matt takes some time to answer a few common questions around futures betting. First, he defines what value is and details that value does not mean you are betting an underdog. You can find value in a favorite, as well. He then details why odds move and brings Frank in to discuss the pros and cons of betting futures.

When they turn to the odds, Matt starts by providing the top five NBA MVP contenders when odds opened – Giannis Antetokounmpo. Luka Doncic, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Steph Curry – and then highlights the differences in the top five contenders right now – LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry.

Before breaking down the top contenders, both co-hosts bring up the fact that the NBA MVP award is much like the NFL MVP award, where it generally goes to the best player on the best team in the regular season. Matt notes that nine of the last 12 NBA MVPs have come from the team with the most wins in the regular season. Frank also adds that Giannis is up against a tough trend in trying to become the first player to win three straight MVP awards since Larry Bird in 1984-1986.

Using this knowledge, Frank crosses out Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, and Nikola Jokic, as he does not believe their respective teams have what it takes to lead the league in wins, or even come close to it. Frank also crosses off LeBron James at his current price of +175, which he feels is too short right now. This leaves Frank to pick Joel Embiid as the best NBA MVP bet right now, noting that he has been dominant and the Sixers have a legitimate chance to win the Eastern Conference.

Matt agrees with most of Frank’s assessment of the top contenders, stating that Doncic or Jokic would likely have to average a triple-double to win the award this year. That’s how Russell Westbrook won the award in 2016-17, since his OKC Thunder didn’t even crack the 50-win plateau that season. At their current odds, Matt sees no value in betting either of them to do so.

However, Matt disagrees with Frank’s Embiid pick. With his history of injuries, Matt has a hard time buying him at this short of a price. He also notes that he foresees Brooklyn and Boston starting to pick it up in the Atlantic, and isn’t even confident in Philadelphia finishing as the second-best team in the division, let alone the top team in the East.

Matt goes outside of the top five contenders to find value, pointing to Damien Lillard at +3000 as being the best bet on the board right now. He notes that Dame has Portland only a handful of games behind the top-seeded Utah Jazz in the Western Conference, and he’s done it without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for the majority of the season. Matt feels Lillard has hit game-winner after game-winner in games the Blazers don’t really belong in.

Which of the two do you agree with? Tell us who you’re betting to win NBA MVP right now, and tune in to hear the entire discussion above on the SBD Odds Pod.

The post Episode 9: 2021 NBA MVP Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 8 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan, the Editor-in-Chief of SBD, kick off Episode 8 of the SBD Odds Pod, brought to you by SportsBettingDime.com, by recapping the ugliness that was Super Bowl 55 and their rough day at the sportsbooks.

While discussing the Super Bowl 55 props they bet, Frank brings up the streaker who apparently won $375K by betting on a streaker. Matt quickly explains that the reports are fake. He discloses that no sportsbook would take a wager anywhere near that big on this type of prop, and they wouldn’t pay it out once they found out he was the streaker.

The two then dive into the opening Super Bowl 56 odds, where the Kansas City Chiefs are listed as the heavy favorites, seeing odds anywhere from +500 to +550. Using SportsBettingDime.com’s Super Bowl Odds Tracker, Matt notes that Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds this past season were never available at a price shorter than +500 after the season kicked off.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers saw their odds move from +1100 to +800 or +900, depending where you look, after winning Super Bowl 55.

Matt highlights the Indianapolis Colts at 29-1 odds as presenting great early value. He discusses that while Philip Rivers was a step up from Jacoby Brissett, Rivers’ inability to move in the pocket did cost the Colts some games this past season. While Matt acknowledges that Indianapolis is not getting Deshaun Watson, or Russell Wilson, he does believe their 2021 quarterback is not currently on the roster.

Whether it’s Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, or a different free agent quarterback, Matt believes the Colts defense and offensive line put them in a great position to contend, and getting slightly better than adequate quarterback play will have Indianapolis in the hunt.

Frank points to a different AFC team as his value pick, siding with the Buffalo Bills, who lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Frank believes that Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs will only build on their chemistry in Year 2, and sees them as a very dangerous team who was only a couple plays away from playing in Super Bowl 55. At +1200 odds, Frank is buying the Bills early.

Matt looks to the Bills as his team to avoid at this price, however. SBD’s Editor-in-Chief notes that they went 4-0 against the Patriots and Dolphins in 2020, and doesn’t believe they’ll be able to repeat that in 2021. Though Matt sees the Bills as legitimate contenders, he believes that after New England or Miami make some moves (or takes a game from them in the regular season) that we’ll be able to get Buffalo at a better price than what they’re currently offered at.

Frank and Matt then quickly discuss some lottery tickets in the Super Bowl futures, which they define as any team with odds longer than 50-1. Frank points to the Eagles as presenting value after they’ve gotten Doug Pederson out of town, and appear to be ready to pull the trigger on trading Carson Wentz as well. Matt also takes a team from the NFC East, but he is siding with the Washington Football Team. Matt believes they have the assets to pull off a trade for Deshaun Watson, but even if they stick with Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, or Alex Smith, he doesn’t have any faith in the rest of the NFC East.

To hear the full conversation, tune into the SBD Odds Pod above.

The post Episode 8: Opening Super Bowl 56 Odds appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 7 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan are back to provide a full breakdown of Super Bowl 55, between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in Episode 7 of the SBD Odds Pod, brought to you by SportsBettingDime.com.

The two start off the show by recapping the Week 12 matchup between these two teams, where the Chiefs came out on top 27-24. Matt points to the final score not really telling the real story of the game, as Kansas City led 17-0 before the end of the first quarter, and were up 27-10 heading into the fourth.

Matt also highlights a handful of Chiefs errors from this game, including a Patrick Mahomes fumble inside the red zone and the team settling for a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the one-yard-line on a separate drive. Frank and Matt also quickly touch on Tyreek Hill’s unbelievable performance from this game.

The two then turn their attention to the upcoming meeting between the two on Sunday, February 7, also being referred to as Super Bowl 55. Matt provides the updated lines, which now sit at Kansas City -3 and the total is 56, and notes that one sportsbook is offering the spread at KC -3.5 for anyone who likes Tampa Bay.

After discussing the public money breakdown, or Super Bowl betting trends, if you prefer, and large bets that have been placed, Matt drops some fun Super Bowl trends. The one that really caught Frank’s attention was the fact that teams who win the Super Bowl are also 46-6-2 against the spread. This trend is telling Chiefs bettors to have no fear in laying the three points, while encouraging Buccaneers bettors to just bet Tom Brady and company on the moneyline.

Frank then brings up Tom Brady being responsible for some of those six instances where a team won the game and did not cover. Brady’s Patriots won Super Bowls 38 and 39 over the Panthers and Eagles, respectively, but did not cover the spread in either.

After offering their opinions on what each team needs to do to win the game, the two offer their Super Bowl picks. Both are on the Chiefs and are happy to lay the three points. Matt mentions the weather being a little up in the air right now, as one weather station is listing a high chance of rain, and notes that we could see the line drop significantly as we near gameday.

The two finish up with the Super Bowl by listing off a traditional prop they are betting and a “Super Bowl prop” they are also betting. Tune in above for the full breakdown.

The post Episode 7: Super Bowl 55 Picks, Props, and Trends appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 6 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan kickoff Episode 6 of the SBD Odds Pod, brought to you by SportsBettingDime.com, by recapping the NFL Conference Championships, then get into some early talk about Super Bowl 55 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Holding off until next week to offer their picks on the game, the two focus on the significance of the spread being listed at a key number (3) right now, a couple fun props (Gatorade bath, National Anthem length), and quickly mention early touchdown props.

In their recap, Matt focuses on the comedy of errors committed in the NFC Championship by both the Buccaneers and Packers. He points out that it seemed everyone was doing their best to ensure the finger would be pointed at them at the conclusion of the game. It started with Kevin King getting roasted in the first half, mixed in with the no-calls on some obvious grabbing and holding from the Tampa Bay secondary. Then Aaron Jones starts the second half by putting the ball on the ground for the second time, this one being recovered by the Bucs defense.

After that, it became the Tom Brady meltdown the rest of the second half, as Brady threw three interceptions in the final 30 minutes of the game. Then with the game on the line, Aaron Rodgers tries to force a ball into double coverage on third-and-goal from the eight-yard-line instead of taking off with nothing but green grass in front of him. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur then decided he wanted to be the center of attention when he opted to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal when down by eight, with just over two minutes left in the game.

The ensuing kickoff return could have gone down as the bonehead play of the year if Tampa Bay went on to lose, as Jaydon Mickens gave himself up almost immediately, allowing the Packers to gain another timeout with the two-minute warning still in play. Finally, we had the referees make their case again, calling King for defensive pass interference, which no one disagrees that it was, when they had let Tampa Bay’s secondary away with the same stuff all game long.

Frank then brings up the situation surrounding Green Bay’s star quarterback, and the likely NFL MVP from 2020, Aaron Rodgers. The two discuss how hard it is to see the Packers allowing Rodgers to leave the team and finish his career elsewhere, then offer a couple nice fits should Rodgers force his way out.

The AFC Championship recap was quick, with both agreeing that the Chiefs showed up and played the way we had been expecting them to all season.

When they get to discussing the opening line for Super Bowl 55, Matt notes the significance of the number three in football. He notes that from 2003-2020, 15% of games played have ended with a three-point margin of victory. His advice is for all Tampa Bay bettors to pounce on 3.5 if they can still find it, while noting that it’s not worth the price to buy the half-point to get down to 2.5 if you’re a Chiefs bettor.

Frank and Matt then rhyme off all the Super Bowls that have been played with three and 3.5-point spreads.

Frank then reminisces about some fake news leaks last year that resulted in him and some friends rushing to bet on the color of Gatorade that would be dumped on the winning coach. This sparks a bigger conversation on information leaks and why sportsbooks don’t get crushed by the people who do have real insider info.

Matt drops some trends on both the Gatorade color and National Anthem props before offering up one anytime touchdown scorer he’s betting now, and one player he’s waiting on, hoping the line comes down a little.

Listen to Episode 6 of the Odds Pod above for all the trends, data, and notes shared.

The post Episode 6: Opening Super Bowl 55 Lines & Fun Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 5 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and SportsBettingDime.com’s Editor-in-Chief Matt McEwan recap the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL playoffs, breakdown the odds and offer their picks for the AFC and NFC Championship games, and then analyze the exact Super Bowl outcome prop available at sportsbooks.

To lead off, Matt gives Frank a couple minutes to gloat about his 4-0 week from the Divisional Round. Frank won all his bets against the spread – Green Bay -7, Buffalo -2, Cleveland +10, and Tampa Bay +3 – last weekend and took a quick minute to reminisce about the thrill.

Frank did, however, miss on his overtime bet, after finding a bad line being offered that he tried to expose.

While Matt went 3-1 last weekend, he discusses how he middled the Browns vs Chiefs game on Sunday when the spread started dropping ahead of kickoff. Matt had already locked in Browns +10, but added in a same-game, six-point teaser with Kansas City -2 and under 63 when he noticed the spread drop to Chiefs -8.

When the two get into NFL Conference Championship weekend, they find a lot of similarities in their picks. Based off of general rule of homefield advantage being worth 2.5-3 points, Frank points out that there’s no way Green Bay is only a half-point / full-point better than Tampa Bay, which is what the Green Bay -3.5 line suggests.

Matt agrees and discloses that he wasn’t overly impressed with Tampa Bay’s performance last week against the Saints. He felt the outcome was more of a result of Drew Brees giving the game away versus Tom Brady and the Bucs taking it from them.

Both Frank and Matt are taking Green Bay -3.5 and like the under (51) in the NFC Championship.

They are also both on the same side in the AFC Championship. Matt highlights the head-scratching opening line that we saw in this game, which was Kansas City -1 with a 50.5 total. He details that the books must have just wanted to open a line on the game, but had no idea whether Patrick Mahomes would be available and tried to split it down the middle.

If Mahomes plays, there’s no way sportsbooks see Buffalo as the better team, which is what a KC -1 line would suggest, as homefield is worth 2.5-3 points. If Mahomes does not play, there’s no way a Chad Henne-led Chiefs team is favored over the Bills.

Even at the current line of KC -3, which could still be found at 2.5 at the time of recording, both hosts are still on the Chiefs, while Matt is also taking the over (53.5).

Finally, the two breakdown the exact Super Bowl outcome prop available at sportsbooks. Frank sees value in “Green Bay over Buffalo” at +550 odds. Matt puts on his sharp cap and showcases a better way to bet this prop. He uses Frank’s pick to tell him to do it the long way, parlaying the Packers and Bills on the moneyline this weekend, then rolling over his winnings to a moneyline bet on the Packers in the Super Bowl. The payout is better doing it Matt’s way.

Listen to Episode 5 above to hear the full conversation, including the public betting trends and some team trends the two bring to the table to support their picks.

The post Episode 5: NFL Conference Championship Picks & Super Bowl Exact Outcome Props appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 4 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan recap NFL Wild Card Weekend before breaking down the Divisional Round and offering their picks.

The two also quickly dive into some NBA with the news of James Harden being traded to the Brooklyn Nets. Matt has a futures bet on the Nets to win the NBA Championship at +600, and in spite of Brooklyn’s odds shortening to +230 at some sportsbooks after the trade, he doesn’t feel as confident in his bet with Harden now a Net.

Can Frank change his mind?

When the two come back to NFL, Frank and Matt share their frustrations over the Steelers’ horrible performance against the Browns in Wild Card Weekend, even bringing up past memories of Matt’s Broncos taking a beating in Super Bowl 48. Was this Pittsburgh loss worse than the playoff loss to Tim Tebow for Frank?

Matt recalls losing some big money on the under in Tampa Bay vs Washington thanks to Taylor Heinicke before getting into the bad beat of the week. The two hosts discuss the Bears +10.5/11 bad beat when Mitchell Trubisky threw a touchdown as time expired to bring the score to 21-9. But thanks to the score being meaningless and no time left on the clock, Chicago was not given the opportunity to attempt a PAT, leaving the score at 21-9 and a Saints cover.

After wrapping up their Wild Card Weekend recap, the two break down each of the four games ahead in the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL playoffs.

Here are their picks for each game:

• Matt McEwan: (1) Packers -1 & Over 39.5 same-game teaser, (2) Bills -2.5, (3) Browns +10, (4) Saints -3
• Frank Michael Smith: (1) Packers -7, (2) Bills -2.5, (3) Browns +10, (4) Buccaneers +3

Matt dives deep into some numbers for his Saints pick, disclosing how it really isn’t hard to beat a team for a third time in the same season. SBD’s Editor-in-Chief did his research into how many times a team has had the opportunity to beat another three times in the same season and how often they have won that third game.

Tune in to the SBD Odds Pod to get all the money percentages and SBD’s score predictor’s picks for the weekend.

The post Episode 4: NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 3 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan break down their confidence in betting each of the 14 teams in the 2021 NFL playoffs, offer their picks for Wild Card Weekend, and their best bet to win Super Bowl 55.

Here’s where the two land in terms of confidence in all playoff teams on a scale of 1-10:

• Indianapolis Colts: Matt 7.2 | Frank 4.8
• Buffalo Bills: Matt 8.1 | Frank 8.5
• Seattle Seahawks: Matt 5.8 | Frank 7.5
• Los Angeles Rams: Matt 7.2 | Frank 6.4
• New Orleans Saints: Matt 6.2 | Frank 7.1
• Chicago Bears: Matt 5.2 | Frank 3.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Matt 7.2 | Frank 7.0
• Washington Football Team: Matt 6.8 | Frank 5.9
• Baltimore Ravens: Matt 8.7 | Frank 9.1
• Tennessee Titans: Matt 8.4 | Frank 8.3
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Matt 7.6 | Frank 7.4
• Cleveland Browns: Matt 5.7 | Frank 3.2
• Kansas City Chiefs: Matt 9.9 | Frank 9.1
• Green Bay Packers: Matt 9.3 | Frank 8.9

When the two get to looking at their Super Bowl picks, Frank is taking the Chiefs, although he is not confident enough to bet them at their short price, while Matt is still finding value in Kansas City to win Super Bowl 55 at odds as long as +240.

Both hosts have the chalky pick in Green Bay to come out of the NFC.

Frank makes history on the show with the first ever NFL Wild Card Weekend six-leg, six-point teaser. The six picks are as follows: (1) Bills -1, (2) Rams +10.5, (3) Buccaneers -3, (4) Over 48 in Ravens vs Titans, (5) Bears +16.5, and (6) Steelers +2.

Of Frank’s six picks, Matt says he fears the over in the Baltimore-Tennessee game the most. SBD’s Editor-in-Chief also turns down the fun a little in disclosing the probabilities of winning parlays. Matt also played a teaser this week, but only had two legs: (1) Tampa Bay -1.5, and (2) Buffalo -1.

Before closing off the show, Matt offers the public’s pick of the week, which is the Buffalo Bills -7 over the Indianapolis Colts, and the SBD score predictor’s upset pick of the week, which is the Los Angeles Rams over the Seattle Seahawks.

Tune in to hear the full breakdown of why they are or are not confident in each playoff team on the SBD Odds Pod.

The post Episode 3: NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 2 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan recap Week 16 in the NFL, including the devastating bad beats suffered in the Dolphins vs Raiders game, then look ahead to Week 17 and offer their picks. The two take a deep dive into Sunday night’s prime time matchup between Washington and Philadelphia.

In the bad beats of the week segment, Matt and Frank point to: (1) the people who bet the over 55 in Tampa Bay vs Detroit, which saw 54 points scored in the first 38 minutes of gameplay, and then not a single point in the final 22 minutes; and (2) both the Raiders moneyline bettors and the under 48.5 bettors in the Miami vs Las Vegas game, where 22 points were scored in the final four minutes to finish 26-25 for the Dolphins.

Frank’s best win came from the Ravens over the Giants, who covered their 13.5-point spread. Matt’s best wins were the Cowboys moneyline (over the Eagles), which paid out at +150, and Ryan Tannehill to score a touchdown at +350. Admittedly, Matt got his Dallas pick from his SBD score predicting formula.

Matt offers Frank an apology as the two look back on all their Week 16 bets, since he talked Frank into betting both the Browns to cover against the Jets and the Rams to beat the Seahawks – two losers.

When the two look ahead to Week 17, Frank starts it off by offering the Ravens -11.5 (against the Bengals) as his play of the week again. Just like last week, he discloses that he would still bet Baltimore up to two touchdowns.

Looking to get some redemption for his bad advice last week, Matt throws out Buffalo -1 as a line everyone needs to jump on before it starts moving further in the Bills’ favor.

When the two start talking trends for Week 17, Matt begs the listeners not to fall into the trap of blindly betting teams that have something to play for, citing five underdogs winning straight up in Week 17 last year. Also, looking to the last five Week 17s, underdogs of 7.5 or more points are 16-12 against the spread.

Matt and Frank spend the last portion of the show breaking down the Sunday Night Football clash between the Washington Football Team and Philadelphia Eagles. Frank likes the Eagles while Matt is leaning towards Washington due to their defense and Alex Smith being reliable.

Catch the public betting trends, SportsBettingDime.com’s AI pick, and who Frank and Matt are taking.

The post Episode 2: How to Bet Week 17 in the NFL appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

SBD Odds Pod Episode 1 Recap

Frank Michael Smith and Matt McEwan of SportsBettingDime.com kick off the first ever episode of the SBD Odds Pod by going through their bad beats and best wins from Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season, then move onto discussing a loaded Week 16 slate.

Matt highlights Cincinnati’s decision to kick a field goal with just 16 seconds left in a game they led 24-17 as his bad beat of the week. The extra three points resulted in Matt’s under (41) bet being a dud. The Bengals could have just called a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 and ended the game right there.

Frank also points to a late-game field goal as his bad beat of the week. This time it was Matt Rhule’s decision to kick a field goal from Green Bay’s 15-yard-line on 1st-and-10.

The Panthers were down 24-13 with just over two minutes to play. But Carolina only had one timeout remaining, so they opted to kick the field goal early and try to take advantage of the two minute warning. Rhule’s squad would go on to lose 24-16, spoiling all Green Bay -8.5 tickets in the process.

In their best wins of the week, Matt points to a Colts-Packers six-point teaser that worked to perfection as both teams failed to cover their respective spreads by half a point. He also discusses racing to bet Tyron Johnson’s anytime touchdown prop at +300 when news broke of both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen potentially missing their Thursday Night Football clash against the Raiders.

Frank’s best win of the week was the Ravens -13 over the Jaguars. He was able to kick his feet up and relax before halftime, which isn’t something you get to do too often.

In Matt’s “futures winner of the week”, he discusses potentially kicking his feet up a little early on his Steelers to win the AFC North ticket, as Pittsburgh has opened the door for the Browns to take the division crown.

When the two get to looking ahead to Week 16, Frank offers the Ravens -10.5 over the Giants as his play of the week and is willing to bet it at anything under 14 points. Matt’s best bet of the week is Miami -3 over the Las Vegas Raiders in a must-win for both.

Tune in for their Week 15 recap, Week 16 picks, and to learn about the world of sports betting.

The post Episode 1: NFL Week 16 Picks appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.