The Minnesota Twins (63-58, 34-24 home) have a solid lead atop the American League Central Division but lately, the Detroit Tigers (53-66, 27-33 away) have their number.

Beginning a quick two-game home series against Detroit on Tuesday, Minnesota had dropped three games in a row to the Tigers. Detroit was also 3-1 straight up in the club’s last four visits to face the Twins. However, Minnesota rebounded, taking the opener by a 5-3 verdict.

Oddsmakers are backing the division leaders again. Minnesota will be taking the field for the second game of this set as -190 home favorites. The Twins are a dismal 26-32 against the spread at home this season.

Tigers vs Twins Odds

First pitch on Wednesday, August 16 at Target Field is set for 1:10pm ET. Minnesota is 31-20 SU as a home favorite this season.

In the MLB public betting trends, the people, like the oddsmakers, are embracing the Twins. Minnesota is drawing 67% of handle and 78% of bets in the spread splits. The Tigers are 21-29 ATS as an away underdog. Moneyline splits are overwhelming backing the Twins at 92% of handle and 77% of bets. Minnesota has gone 1-8 SU in the last nine games against AL opponents.

As far as the total of 8.5 runs,  the public is going overboard for the over. It’s garnering 96% of handle and 78% of bets. The total has gone under in five of Detroit’s last six games.

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Maeda Improving In Second Half

It isn’t showing up in wins. He’s 1-2 over six starts. Still, Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda appears to be finding his groove since the MLB all-star break. He’s lowered his ERA from 5.18 to 2.76 and chopped his WHIP from 1.27 to 0.95. Meanwhile, his strikeouts per nine innings have seen a jump from 9.5 to 11.3.

Kenta Maeda since returning from IL (9 starts):

49.2 IP
2.17 ERA
62 K

The @Twins starter has allowed two runs or less in 8 of those 9 starts! #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/HvV49YXCFf

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 10, 2023

The veteran has checked opponents on two earned runs or less in five straight starts and eight of his last nine trips to the bump. Maeda is 1-1 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.82 WHIP against Detroit in two starts this season.

Olson vs Maeda

In his last start on Aug. 10, Tigers rookie right-hander Reese Olson threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball in beating Maeda and the Twins 3-0 at Comerica Park. It was his first victory since Olson beat the Twins 3-2 on June 24.

Reese Olson-Kenta Maeda pitching duel broken up by Riley Greene, who sent a Maeda slider 453 feet to right-center for his 10th (and longest) HR this season. pic.twitter.com/dqdYpOr4UN

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) August 10, 2023

That’s right, both of Olson’s MLB victories have come against Minnesota. He’s 2-0 against the Twins with a 0.79 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Facing the rest of MLB, Olson is 0-5 with a 5.29 ERA.

Tigers vs Twins Props

Minnesota is 5-4 straight up in the club’s last nine home games. Based on those numbers, there’s almost a 50-50 chance that the Twins will be batting in the bottom of the ninth inning. Caesars is offering a game prop on whether the home team will bat in the ninth. It’s +100 that Minnesota will and -130 that the Twins won’t.

The first inning during each of Maeda’s last five starts have gone scoreless. FanDuel is offering NRFI odds of -110.

Tigers vs Twins Recent Results

Will it be third-time lucky for Olson against the Twins, or third-time lucky for Minnesota against Detroit? Maeda’s strong form of late is overdue to begin translating into wins. That factor, plus home-field advantage should give the Twins an edge.

Tigers vs Twins Pick: Minnesota Twins (-190).

The post Tigers vs Twins Odds, Predictions & Props to Target (Aug 16) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Tuesday brings a busy 15-game slate in the MLB with all 30 teams in action. The best bets for the day start in San Diego where the Baltimore Orioles look to make it two in a row over the struggling Padres.

My picks for the day are laid out in the table below. All wagers are one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

 Best MLB Picks & Player Props (Tuesday, Aug. 15)

Two of Tuesday’s MLB picks are plus-money swings, including the O’s moneyline. The other is a bet on a perennial Cy Young candidate to outduel an underwhelming pitcher who’s been extremely lucky so far this season.

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Orioles vs Padres Pick: Baltimore moneyline (+110)

It’s taking oddsmakers a while to catch on to just how good the 2023 Baltimore Orioles are. The O’s sit first in the American League (74-45) and are now tied for the most road wins in all of baseball (38) after downing the Padres (4-1) last night in the first of their three-game set.

Today, Baltimore sends Jack Flaherty to the hill opposite San Diego’s Michael Wacha. Once the budding young ace of the Cardinals’ rotation, Flaherty’s career has been mired by injuries and inconsistency. But he still shows flashes of the dominant stuff that led the Cards to draft him in the first round back in 2014. In two starts with the Orioles since the deadline, Flaherty pitched one game (one run on four hits over 6.0 innings during a 6-1 win over Toronto) and touched-up once (three runs on six hits over 5.0 innings in an 8-2 loss to Houston).

He has ample history against the Padres’ lineup and modestly encouraging results. Over 61 total at-bats, San Diego’s lineup is hitting .231 with five doubles and no home runs.

Wacha has a sparkling 2.84 ERA on the season and has been one of the few highlights for a disappointing Padres team this year. But his xERA of 4.20 paints a much different picture. He’s been wildly fortunate this year and his career ERA of 3.97 is a more accurate reflection of who will be toeing the rubber for the Friars today.

Pick: Orioles moneyline (+110)

Phillies vs Blue Jays Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline First 3 Innings (-140)

Tuesday’s game in Toronto features a huge pitching mismatch between the Phillies’ Zach Wheeler and the Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi. While the latter has the better ERA in 2023 (3.53 vs 3.74), he’s extremely lucky that’s the case. Kikuchi’s Expected ERA (xERA) per FanGraphs is well over four (4.26) and he has never previously recorded an ERA under 4.41 in his four-plus-year career.

Wheeler, on the other hand, has been the victim of some rotten luck to be saddled with an ERA in the high threes. His own xERA is 3.32 while his WHIP is a solid 1.11. He’s been a model of consistency for the Phillies in 2023, especially on the road lately. In his last three road starts, he’s scattered four runs across 19.2 innings of work.

Toronto has the more-potent lineup, but the difference isn’t terribly stark. The Jays sit 6th in WRC+ compared to the Phillies in 16th, but Philly is only two spots behind Toronto in wOBA (9th vs 11th) and actually sits ahead of the Blue Jays in slugging (8th vs 12th).

Kikuchi’s luck is going to even out eventually.

Pick: Phillies moneyline first 3 innings (-140)

Angels vs Rangers Pick: Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

After getting shutout by Max Scherzer last night (11-0), the Angels will be thrilled to see Texas trot out Jordan Montgomery for Tuesday’s game. While the former Yankee/Cardinal has a highly respectable 3.38 ERA on the season, he’s vastly outperforming his peripherals. FanGraphs lists his xERA at 4.23 and his xFIP at 4.10.

Ohtani has limited experience against Montgomery, but did manage to crank a double off the lefty in one of his three at-bats. With 41 homers, 20 doubles, and seven triples this year, over half of Ohtani’s 133 hits have been for extra bases. Getting him at significant plus-money to record more than one total base – which could also be accomplished with multiple singles – is my favorite bet on this game.

Pick: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+130)

Season MLB betting record: 2-3 (-0.02 units)

The post Today’s Best MLB Picks & Player Props (Tuesday, Aug. 15) Including Phillies vs Blue Jays, Orioles vs Padres appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

In terms of being in their home state, both the Cleveland Guardians (57-62 , 61-58 ATS) and Cincinnati Reds (62-58, 75-45 ATS) are home for the next two games. However, in terms of being in their own ballpark, home cooking hasn’t amounted to a hill of beans in the battle of Ohio.

Last season, Cleveland and Cincinnati met four times, twice at home and twice on the road. Home teams were 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the run line in those games.

Perhaps that explains why oddsmakers are establishing the Guardians as slight -118 road favorites over the Reds in the opener of a two-game series at Cincinnati. Cleveland is 14-4 SU in the last 18 games between the two teams at Great American Ballpark.

Guardians vs Reds Odds

First pitch on Tuesday, August 15 at Great American Ballpark is set for 6:40pm ET. Cincinnati is an MLB-best 75-45 against the spread this season.

In the MLB public betting trends, it’s the hometown Reds that people are leaning into. Cincinnati is drawing 82% of handle and 66% of bets on the run line. The Reds are 26-13 ATS as a road underdog this season. In terms of the moneyline splits, Cincinnati is getting 79% of handle and 72% of bets. Cleveland is 13-11 SU as an away favorite in 2023.

On the total of 9.5 runs, it’s the under that the public is embracing. It’s garnering 62% of handle and 59% of bets. The Guardians have gone under in 57.8% of games this season, the second-highest total in the majors.

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Cleveland’s Allen Perfect Against NL Clubs

Guardians rookie left-hander Logan Allen has won one of his past four decisions, but four of his last seven decisions. He’s gone through five innings in each of his past five starts. He’d failed to get through the fifth inning in three starts prior to that stretch.

Logan Allen Strikes Out 3 in 5 Solid Innings! | Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians | 8/9/2023 pic.twitter.com/3eEQygaSC4

— Baseball Is Everything (@PiratesAreBad) August 10, 2023

Allen has served up five home runs through his past 13 innings of work. He’s proven to be a more effective pitcher on the road, going 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA in eight starts. In three starts facing NL clubs, Allen is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA.

Allen vs Ashcraft

Rebounding from a 3-6 start, Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft has won three of his last four decisions. Since June 30 he’s worked into the sixth inning in each of his eight starts. Ashcraft is showing a 1.94 ERA over that stretch. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of those eight starts.

Graham Ashcraft has a 1.94 ERA in his last 8 starts‼️ pic.twitter.com/NyjZizspYU

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 9, 2023

At home, Ashcraft is 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in 13 starts. Overall, though, he’s 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in six starts since the MLB All-Star break. Ashcraft has reduced opposition batting average (.290 to .211) and OPS (.839 to .639) significantly since the first half. At the same time, he’s increased his strikeouts per nine innings from 1.71 to 2.45.

Guardians vs Reds Prediction

The Guardians are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games, but 4-2 SU in their last six against the Reds. In fact, Cleveland is 4-1 SU in the last five games facing an NL Central opponent.

Cincinnati is also scuffling of late, with a 3-9 SU mark through the past 12 games. However, the Reds are 4-1 SU in the last five facing AL Central squads and 8-1 SU in the past nine against AL opposition.

Guardians vs Reds Recent Results

Ashcraft and Allen have both been on top of their games in recent starts. At home, Cincinnati goes under 55% of the time. The total has gone under in eight of the last 10 Reds games and 11 of the past 16 Guardians games. That’s the play.

Guardians vs Reds Pick: Under 9.5 runs (-110)

The post Guardians vs Reds Odds, Picks & Starting Pitchers (Aug 15) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

• See the odds for all nine MLB games on Monday, August 14, plus picks and best bets for the day’s action
• The Yankees are massive +192 underdogs at the MLB-leading Braves
• See the best MLB picks for Monday including Orioles vs Padres and Angels vs Rangers

Generally a lighter day on the MLB’s weekly calendar, this Monday is no different, with just nine games on the schedule. Some of those matchups are highly intriguing contests, though, including the AL-leading Baltimore Orioles traveling to San Diego to open a three-game series with the (so far) disappointing Padres, who are running out of time to turn their season around.

The table below shows the (available) odds for Monday’s MLB games at Caesars Sportsbook. Under the table, find my favorite MLB picks today.

MLB Odds for Monday, Aug. 14, 2023

In a rarity, the Yankees are the biggest underdog on the day, sitting as +192 longshots as they face Max Fried and the league-leading Braves in Atlanta. The lowest total on the board is 7.5 in both Astros vs Marlins and Rays vs Giants, while three games have a total of 9.0 and the rest are in between.

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Pick #1: Orioles vs Padres – Baltimore moneyline (+118)

The struggling Padres head home after a short road trip that saw the team go 1-4 against the Mariners and Diamondbacks. While San Diego has been significantly better at home (30-28) than on the road (26-34), they are facing a Baltimore squad that has the second-most road wins in the majors (37), not too mention the second-best overall record in the majors.

A perceived pitching mismatch between San Diego’s Yu Darvish and Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez is a big part of why the O’s are in plus-money on Monday night. But Rodriguez’s 5.84 ERA isn’t really an accurate portrayal of his season as a whole. The month of May represented a major speedbump for the 23-year-old, who gave up six-plus runs in three of five starts before being sent down to the minors.

Since returning to the big-leagues on August 17, he’s made five starts, giving up an average of 2.2 runs per game over roughly 5.2 innings. In short, he’s looked like the top pitching prospect he is. And those five starts have come against some of the MLB’s top teams: Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees (whom he shutout over 6.1 innings).

On the other side, Yu Darvish is having an up-and-down season, sporting an era just over four. He’s been mostly excellent of late – at least in the box score – going at least six scoreless innings in three of his last five starts. But his WHIP is a concerningly high 1.25 and he’s walked multiple batters in seven of his past eight starts. He’s flirting with danger.

I will take the Orioles at +118 to continue their storybook season against a Padres team that keeps finding ways to lose.

Pick: Orioles moneyline (+118)

Pick #2: Angels vs Rangers – First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-105)

The second pick on Monday is a bet on the starting pitchers in the Angels vs Rangers matchup in Texas. The Rangers will be trotting out Max Scherzer for his third start since being acquired from the Mets. The 39-year-old Scherzer is finally showing signs of age with a 3.88 ERA an 1.14 WHIP. But he was excellent in his most-recent start for the Rangers (one run on three hits over seven innings against the A’s).

A handful of LA players, including Shohei Ohtani, have never faced Scherzer before, and the six who have have combined for a dismal .143 batting average and .349 OPS against the future Hall of Famer.

The promising Patrick Sandoval has seemed to recover from a mid-season doldrums that saw his ERA inflate from 2.93 in early May to 4.57 in late June.  He has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his past five starts, and just six runs total over that span, while recording at least 15 outs (five full innings of work).

Like Scherzer, Sandoval has also found a lot of success against the bats he’ll be facing on Monday night. In 47 at-bats, the Rangers lineup has a paltry .106 average against the 26-year-old lefty with zero home runs, three doubles, and just two RBI.

If either of these lineups tee off on the opposing starter, it will be a reversal of trends.

Pick: first 5 innings under 4.5 (-105)  

The post MLB Picks & Odds for All Games on Monday, Aug. 14, Including Orioles vs Padres, Angels vs Rangers appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Monday’s MLB schedule sees nine game scattered between 6:40 pm ET and 9:45 pm ET, kicking off with a rare interleague matchup between the Houston Astros (68-50, 35-25 away) and Miami Marlins (61-57, 35-25 home).  A handful of aces are on the bump, including the Texas Rangers’ prized deadline acquisition Max Scherzer.

Monday’s player prop picks, however, will

 MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, August 14th

Two of Monday’s prop picks come from the first game on the docket: Astros vs Marlins, while the final play of the day is from the Angels vs Rangers affair, which starts at 8:05 pm ET.

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Player-Prop Picks #1 and #2: Berti and De La Cruz Under 0.5 Hits in Astros vs Marlins

It’s no secret that Houston’s starter on Monday, Framber Valdez, has been on the decline in the back-half of the season. The 29-year-old was briefly favored in the AL Cy Young odds – and remains the third-favorite – and was sporting an ERA of 2.16 in early June.

Since then, Valdez’s ERA has ballooned, relatively speaking, to 3.30. He’s been tagged for at least four runs in five of his last seven starts.

That said, he’s still shown the penchant to shutdown the lighter-hitting lineups in baseball – including of course his no-hitter against the Guardians on August 1 – and that’s what he’ll be facing on Monday against the Marlins. Miami sits 20th in the majors in wOBA and 19th in slugging.

Valdez’s pitcher props are off the board at the time of publication, so I’ll have to approach this a little differently. In small sample sizes, Valdez has held both Bryan De La Cruz and Jon Berti hitless. With both players in plus-money to stay under 0.5 total bases, I will sprinkle a unit on each.

Picks: Bryan De La Cruz under 0.5 hits (+180) & Jon Berti under 0.5 hits (+135)

Player-Prop Pick #3:

A disappointment this season with the New York Mets, Max Scherzer is showing signs of turning his season around with Texas after getting dealt at the trade deadline. The three-time Cy Young-winner went seven strong innings in his second start with the team, limiting the MLB-worst Athletics to just one run on three hits.

But his over/under outs on Monday is set at 18.5, meaning he needs to record at least one out in the seventh inning to hit the over.

For the year as a whole, Scherzer has pitched 120.2 innings over 21 starts, meaning he has averaged just over 17 outs per game. In fact, he’s only recorded more than 18 outs in six of his 21 starts this year.

His control has been uncharacteristically poor in 2023. He’s walked multiple batters in each of his past eight starts, and his BB/9 of 2.54 is his second-highest since 2014. He’s not going to be permitted more than a pitch or two over 100, at the very most, and 2023 Max Scherzer hasn’t been efficient enough to get 19 outs in that time frame.

Take the under.

Pick: Scherzer under 18.5 outs (-130)

The post Best MLB Player Props to Bet on Monday, August 14, Including Max Scherzer Over/Under appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

At the outset of the MLB season, a lot of baseball pundits were figuring the NL East winner would come down to a battle between the Atlanta Braves (73-41, 58-56 ATS) and New York Mets (52-63, 45-70 ATS).

Turns out they were half right. While the Braves are the most dominant club in baseball, most MLB teams have enjoyed clubbing the Mets this summer.

A recent house-cleaning that saw six Cy Young Awards depart between Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer was displaying exactly how far south things have gone for New York’s NL franchise.

Braves vs Mets Odds

Oddsmakers don’t see things getting any better in the opener of a twin bill against Atlanta. The Braves are set as -166 away favorites. Atlanta has scored at least three runs in 14 successive games against the Mets.

First pitch on Saturday, August 12, at Citi Field is set for 1:10pm ET. The Mets are an MLB-best 10-3 against the spread as a home underdog this season.

The MLB public betting trends are with the Braves in the opener of this doubleheader. Atlanta is drawing 98% of handle and 73% of bets on the run line splits. Atlanta is 30-27 ATS on the road this season. It’s also all Braves in the moneyline splits. It’s 97% of handle and 83% of bets on Atlanta with his trend. The Braves are leading MLB with a 36-21 road record. On the total of 9.5 runs, the over is the play. It’s getting 90% of handle and 98% of bets. The Braves are 63-48-3 on the total in 2023.

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Both Pitchers Are Spot Starting Call-Ups

Two years ago, the Mets didn’t protect right-hander Allan Winans in the MLB Rule 5 Draft. Saturday, Winans will be making the second start of his MLB career against the Mets, the team that dealt him to Atlanta two years ago.

Welcome back, Allan Winans! pic.twitter.com/ppdsYjXUlJ https://t.co/2VaQ1HwVav

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) August 11, 2023

Winans was summoned from Triple-A Gwinnett to make a spot start in the opener of this twin bill. He made his MLB debut July 22 in a start against the Milwaukee Brewers. Winans allowed two earned runs and five hits over 4.1 innings and didn’t factor in the decision.

Winans vs Reyes

It’s deja vu all over again for Mets right-hander Denyi Reyes. He’ll be making his second start of the season and fourth of his MLB career. It’s also his second start in the opener of a doubleheader against the Braves. Reyes was also summoned from the minor leagues to make this spot start.

Mets starters against Braves for tomorrow…

* Game one: Denyi Reyes
* Game two: Jose Quintana

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) August 12, 2023

On May 1, Atlanta chased him after one inning. The Braves roughed him up for five hits and five earned runs during his one inning of work, including a pair of home runs.

He’s 0-1 with a 45.00 ERA against Atlanta. Both Sean Murphy (three-run homer) and Kevin Pillar (two-run homer) took Reyes deep in that game.

Braves vs Mets Prediction

Atlanta is dominating the Mets, with 10 SU wins in the last 11 meetings. Overall, the Braves are 4-1 SU in their last five games.

Braves vs Mets Recent Results

Atlanta is also hitting the over hard of late. The Braves are 6-1 on the total in their last seven games and 5-1 in their last six road games.

Braves vs Mets Picks: Atlanta Braves ML (-166)

The post Braves vs Mets (game one) Odds, Picks & Starting Pitchers (Aug. 12) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two teams in the midst of playoff chases in their respective conferences kick off a 3-game set, when the New York Yankees (59-56, 24-28 away) visit the Miami Marlins (60-56, 34-24 home).

Miami currently sits in the third and final Wild Card berth in the National League, but they’re trying to hold off both the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, who are both just 0.5 games back.

New York, meanwhile, has lost three of four, and sit five back of the Toronto Blue Jays who hold the third Wild Card spot in the American League. There’s traffic between them, though, with the Mariners and Red Sox in pursuit and ahead of the Yanks.

Action gets underway Friday (Aug 11) at 6:40pm ET from loanDepot park in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on MLB Network.

Yankees vs Marlins Odds

The MLB odds have the host Marlins as -142 favorites on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 58.68%. The game features a total of 8.5 runs.

After dropping seven of eight, Miami has now won two straight, and will be looking for their first 3-game win streak post all-star break.

At 24-28, the Yankees hold the 4th-worst road record in the American League.

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Probable Pitchers

New York has been reluctant to name a starter in place of the injured Carlos Rodon, who’ll miss his turn with a hamstring injury, but it’s expected right-hander Randy Vasquez will get the call from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

He’s coming off some impressive showings in the minors, including an 11-strikeout gem on Aug 2.

The 24-year-old Vasquez last pitched for the Yankees on July 5, getting a no-decision in a 6-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. He went five innings, giving up just three hits and no earned runs, walking three and striking out one.

11 strikeouts for Randy Vasquez tonight for Triple-A @swbrailriders! DOMINANT! #RepBX pic.twitter.com/67jpsRbtyI

— Yankee Source (@yankee_source) August 3, 2023

Vasquez’s lone win was a June 8 start in a 3-0 win over the White Sox. He went 5.2 innings, giving up two hits and no earned runs, with a walk and three strikeouts.

This will be his first career start vs the Marlins.

Vasquez vs Luzardo Stats

Miami counters with 25-year-old lefty Jesus Luzardo.

He hasn’t had a win since July 9, earning three no-decisions and taking the L last time out in a 6-2 loss to the Texas Rangers.

Luzardo was chased after 5.1 innings, surrendering six hits and four earned runs, including three home runs against. He walked a pair and struck out eight.

Just two Yankees have ever faced Luzardo, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa hitting .286 against him in seven trips, though he does have a home run and RBI.

Luzardo has faced the Yankees once previously while a member of the A’s. He was tagged for three runs on one hit in 0.1 of an inning, taking the L in a 7-5 New York win in 2021.

Yankees vs Marlins Betting Prediction

New York had an off day Thursday, licking their wounds after a 9-2 loss to the White Sox. The Yankees have now lost seven of their last 11, and they’ve generated just 2.71 runs in those losses.

Miami is coming off a 5-4 win over the Reds, and they were powered by newly acquired Josh Bell, who became the first Marlin in franchise history to homer on from both sides of the plate in the same game.

SHALL WE TIE THIS BALLGAME?

YES, BELL SHALL. #MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/YXxLGYIODd

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) August 9, 2023

Bell has hit safely in all eight games, batting .323  with three home runs, seven RBIs and five runs scored.

These teams haven’t met since 2021, and the Yankees have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, but the teams have gone under in four straight meetings.

That’s where we should target the wager: the under has hit in 64.8% of New York games following a loss, the second-highest under success rate in the Bigs.

Miami has hit the under in 56.1% of their games following a win, a top-8 success rate.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 runs (-115)

The post Yankees vs Marlins Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (Aug. 11) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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The post Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Friday, August 11th, Including a +500 Home Run Prediction appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

After having their bats silenced in Cleveland over the course of four games earlier this week, the Blue Jays (65-52, 30-24 home) will look to break out of their mini-slump this weekend.

Toronto opens up a three-game set with the Cubs (59-56, 27-28 away) on Friday evening, and online sportsbooks are siding with the Blue Jays in the MLB odds.

Cubs vs Blue Jays Odds

Toronto is currently a -162 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 9. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 pm ET at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, and will be featured on Apple TV+.

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Chicago vs Toronto Probable Pitchers

The Blue Jays enter play with the ninth shortest price tag in the World Series odds. Currently sitting at 13 games above .500, you’d expect they’d have a comfortable lead in the Wild Card race, but that’s not the case. Toronto is occupying the AL’s third and final Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games up on the Mariners.

They’ll try to extend that lead on Friday, tasking Jose Berrios with the assignment of shutting down Chicago. Berrios is in excellent form, yielding two earned runs or less in seven of his past eight starts. He picked up the win last time out in Boston, allowing three runs and striking out six, and no team has touched him up for more than two runs other than the Red Sox since the middle of June.

José Berríos, Wicked Slurves. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/Zq55Qb1U2l

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 5, 2023

He posted a sparkling 1.84 ERA in July, and has drastically cut down on the amount of home runs he’s served up. Berrios has yielded only two homers in his last six outings, striking out six or more on four separate occasions.

The right-hander doesn’t have a ton of history with the Cubs regulars in the MLB starting lineups, but those he has faced have not fared well. Current Chicago batters own a dismal .218/.295/.218 lifetime slugging percentage against Berrios, with zero extra-base hits in 55 at-bats.

Assad vs Berrios Stats

The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who’s been battling control issues in his last two starts. He’s failed to make it out of the 4th inning in either outing, allowing a combined five walks. Atlanta tagged him for five hits, including a home run, in just 3.2 innings over the weekend, while the 26-year-old owns only one quality start in 10 major league attempts.

Opponents are slashing .242/.326/.407 off him this season, and there’s a good chance he doesn’t last long versus the mighty Toronto bats. That means the Blue Jays will likely see plenty of Chicago’s bullpen, which isn’t necessarily a good thing. Cubs relievers currently rank above league average in ERA and strand rate, and have pitched very well since the All-Star break. They’ve posted a 3.88 ERA during that stretch, stranding 79% of the runners on base.

Cubs vs Blue Jays Predictions

Toronto mustered only seven runs total over a four-game set with the Guardians this week, after tearing the cover off the ball versus Boston last weekend. Blue Jays hitters crossed the plate 25 times while sweeping the Red Sox on the road, clubbing seven home runs.

The team is still missing leading hitter Bo Bichette (knee), but is finally starting to get production out of George Springer. Toronto’s right fielder is hitting .500 over the last week, with a .750 slugging percentage. Springer is a much better hitter statistically at home than on the road, which increases his likelihood of continued success.

Rogers Centre is typically one of baseball’s most hitter friendly parks, ranking above average in home runs and extra-base hits yielded in 2023 per park factors. The Toronto lineup is a top-11 unit in slugging and OPS this season, ranking just behind the Cubs.

Chicago meanwhile, is in the middle of a playoff race of its own. They currently sit half a game out of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, after going 14-6 in their last 20 games. Offense has been the driving factor of their success, as they’ve been hotter than any team at the plate since the All-Star break.

Your reigning NL Player of the Month: @Cody_Bellinger! pic.twitter.com/gSyO8NJPyu

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 4, 2023

The Cubs have scored 32 more times than any other club since the break, averaging 6.6 runs per outing. They’re slashing .289/.364/.501 during that stretch, with three regulars including Cody Bellinger batting north of .360.

Bellinger has hit a team-high eight home runs over his last 26 games, while Chicago has pounded 43 dingers in that time frame. Yes, the matchup versus Berrios is tough, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they get to him early given how well they’re swinging the bats.

Pick: Over 5.5 Runs First 5 Innings (+100)

The post Cubs vs Blue Jays Picks & Odds (Aug. 11) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Two of the best teams in the American League will go at it once again on Thursday as the Houston Astros (65-49, 34-24 away) visit the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles (70-43, 35-22 home) at Camden Yards. The first pitch for the rubber match is scheduled for 12:35 PM ET.

The ‘Stros will send Hunter Brown to the hill here in the series finale, while the O’s counter with Dean Kremer.

Astros vs Orioles Odds

As you can see, the odds are very similar here. Houston sits at -115 on the moneyline, while the Orioles come back at -105. The total is set at 9.5. Heading into Game 2 Wednesday, the Astros have won three straight against Baltimore.

Odds as of August 9th at DraftKings.

Houston vs Baltimore Probable Pitchers

In his first full big league season, Brown is doing rather well. He’s made a total of 21 starts, going 8-7 with a 4.07 ERA. The righty has struck out 130 in 117.1 innings while walking 38. The WHIP also sits at 1.29.

Quality start for Hunter Brown, who is through 6 innings.

He's allowed 2 runs off barely homers.

He gets the K to end the inning. pic.twitter.com/YRNbSGpsgf

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) August 5, 2023

Brown is on quite an impressive run right now, too. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in three outings in a row. Last time out, the 24-year-old held the struggling Yankees to two earned on five hits in six innings of work. Both runs came off homers, though. When it comes to the Orioles, he’s only pitched one scoreless inning against them.

Brown vs Kremer Stats

Kremer’s 4.61 ERA doesn’t look fantastic, but he’s got the second-most wins in the Orioles rotation with a 10-4 record. The right-hander has taken the ball 23 times, punching out 115 in 125 innings and issuing 39 free passes.

For the most part, Kremer is pretty consistent every fifth day. On August 4th, his most recent start, he only gave up two runs on two hits against the New York Mets. If it wasn’t for the four walks, Kremer probably would’ve stayed in longer. The 27-year-old owns a terrific 0.54 ERA in two career outings against Houston.

Astros Getting Hot

While the Astros are second in the AL West right now, let’s not forget that we’re talking about the defending World Series champs. They’ve dramatically closed the gap between them and the Rangers in the division and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Clutch hitting. pic.twitter.com/0MytPvk8c4

— Houston Astros (@astros) August 9, 2023

Justin Verlander is now back with Houston and both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are finally healthy. Everything is coming together for Dusty Baker’s ball club. Even as a lower seed in the postseason, the talent on this roster is more than capable of making another run to the Fall Classic, especially with Verlander spearheading the rotation again.

Orioles a Pleasant Surprise

In just a few years, Baltimore went from being very bad to very good thanks to some tremendous work in the draft. That young talent is shining in the big leagues, with the likes of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson looking to be stars. With a 70-43 record, the Orioles are two games ahead of the Rays in the AL East.

The biggest strength for the O’s is their ability to score runs, ranking sixth in the Majors with 5.0 per game. The pitching staff meanwhile has definitely overperformed and they added an intriguing piece at the deadline, striking a deal for Jack Flaherty. Baltimore is for real.

Astros vs Orioles Picks

Although Kremer’s ERA skyrockets to 5.35 at home, I can’t ignore his past success against the Astros. I’ll take Baltimore here to salvage a win.

Pick: Orioles moneyline (-105)

The post Astros vs Orioles Odds, Picks & Starting Pitchers (Aug. 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

The MLB-best Atlanta Braves wrap up a four-game series with the Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET Thursday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

The Braves (72-40, 35-20 road) beat the Pirates 6-5 on Wednesday night for their second win a row following a three-game losing streak. The Pirates (51-63, 27-30 home) have lost three of their last five games.

Braves vs Pirates Odds

The Braves are  -218 moneyline favorites over the Pirates on Thursday in the MLB odds, giving them an implied win probability of 68.55%. A delay is possible as the weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of showers or thunderstorms. The high temperature is expected to be 78 degrees along with wind from the east at 6-9 mph.

Atlanta is the +330 favorite in the World Series championship odds while Pittsburgh is listed at +100000.

Odds as of August 9th at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Braves vs Pirates on Thursday. 

Braves vs Pirates Probable Pitchers

Bryce Elder (8-3, 3.43) is scheduled to start for the Braves against left-hander Bailey Falter (0-7, 4.87). Both will be pitching on four days of rest.

Elder vs Falter

Elder is coming off a rough outing in which he lost to the Cubs last Saturday in Chicago. He was tagged for seven runs (five earned) and seven hits in 4.1 innings with three walks and three strikeouts.

Elder will be facing the Pirates for the first time in his career.

In 10 road starts this season, Elder has a 4-2 record and 3.41 ERA and he is 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 10 starts in day games. The Braves are 15-7 when Elder pitches, and he has recorded 13 quality starts.

Falter will be making his second start for the Pirates since being acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline on Aug. 1. He had a no-decision last Saturday against the Brewers at Milwaukee when he allowed one run on six hits in four innings while striking out two and walking one.

We have acquired LHP Bailey Falter from Philadelphia in exchange for INF Rodolfo Castro. pic.twitter.com/Eswc5WnDb4

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 1, 2023

This will be Falter’s third career start against the Braves. He is 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA.

Falter will be making his first start of the season at PNC Park. He has started twice during the day, going 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Falter has two quality starts in eight outings this season and his teams have gone 1-7 in those games.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Braves center fielder Michael Harris is 2 for 4 against Falter in his career with a double and a home run. The only Pirates hitter who has faced Elder is outfielder Josh Palacios and he is 0 for 1 with a hit by pitch.

Braves vs Pirates Betting Trends

Ronald Acuna Jr. had three hits for the Braves as did Ozzie Albies and Harris in Wednesday night’s 6-5 win over the Pirates. Albies also drove in two runs.

Austin Riley added two hits and drove in Harris with the winning run in the eighth inning on a sacrifice fly.

.@austinriley1308 for the lead!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/4Q4epJlDrU

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 10, 2023

Acuna was back in the lineup after leaving Wednesday night’s game when he was hit in the left elbow with a pitch. At -330, Acuna is the heavy favorite in the National League MVP odds.

Ke’Bryan Hayes homered while finishing with three hits and three RBIs for the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen chipped in with two hits.

Braves vs Pirates Last 10 Games

The Braves have won two of three in this series and are 23-7 against the Pirates since 2018.

Braves vs Pirates Prediction

Nothing about this game stands out enough to inspire a surefire pick, so let’s go with the law of average and pick the under after the first three games of the series went over the total.

Pick: Under 10 (-105)

Season Record: 37-16 (+17.7 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 0-1 (-1.0 unit) same-game parlays; 2-2 (+3.6) player props; 43-22 (+21.3 units) overall

The post Braves vs Pirates Odds, Predictions & Picks (Aug. 10) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Still -215 favorites in the National League Central division odds, the Brewers (61-54, 32-27 home) would be wise not to drop another contest to the lowly Rockies (45-68, 20-38 road) when they wrap up a three game set on Wednesday, August 9th.

First pitch for this matchup is scheduled for 2:10 pm ET in a game you can watch on Bally Sports Network and AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Find the odds for the Rockies vs Brewers below as we delve deeper into this matchup before providing you with our best bet and prediction.

Rockies vs Brewers Odds

Unsurprisingly, the Brewers are very comfortable -225 favorites in this one. They’ll be looking for revenge after Colorado scored a 7-3 extra inning victory on Tuesday.

Forecasts are calling for temperature in the low to mid 80’s during game time. Wind gusts will be mild in the midwest state of Wisconsin for this one.

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Colorado vs Milwaukee Probable Pitchers

Following two promising seasons in Seattle, things unraveled for Chris Flexen this season and he was dealt to the Mets who released him soon after.

Chris Flexen runs into trouble in his first #Rockies start.https://t.co/71Uvg5kLv0

— Thomas Harding (@harding_at_mlb) July 30, 2023

A week later, new hope sprang for the 29-year old righthander who was signed to a minor league deal by the Rockies, but in two starts for Colorado, his numbers have looked even uglier than they did with the Mariners this campaign.

Overall, he’s 1-5 with a 7.82 ERA in 19 games, and six starts. Looking for something to build off, he recorded his victory of the year in his last outing, allowing three runs in five innings of work against the Cardinals. However, he was luck, as St. Louis banged out two hits and two long balls against him, but couldn’t cash any more runs.

Flexen vs Houser Stats

On the other side of the diamond, big righty Adrian Houser will be on the bunk for the Brewers. During day games, he’s had much more success against MLB lineups then at night.

In four starts where no lights are needed, Houser has a 2-0 record and 2.38 ERA, as opposed to a 2-3 mark and ERA of 5.01 during the night. This is a good omen for the Brew Crew and something you should consider when making your Rockies vs Brewers wager in the MLB odds.

Rockies vs Brewers Player Prop Picks

Left-handed hitters have pummeled Flexen this season, batting .349 off of his, and he’ll be tested right off the bat by Christian Yelich. The Milwaukee lead off man is top 10 in the National League in batting average and we like him to bang out over 1.5 hits Wednesday afternoon.

.@ChristianYelich sends one out the other way. pic.twitter.com/n9bbz0fvtB

— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2023

While Houser isn’t exactly a punch out artist, only five teams in the majors strike out more than the Rockies. In the series opener, Freddy Peralta whiffed 13 Colorado players. Take Houser to get at least 4.5 strikeouts in this one.

Rockies vs Brewers Predictions

The Rockies are tied with four other squads for the longest current World Series odds, and with Flexen on the mound, we obviously don’t like their chances in this one.

There’s not a lot of money to be made with that bet though, so the pick we suggest you make is to take the over. Opponents have an OPS over 1.000 against Flexen when he starts this season and although Houser has put up good numbers during day games, he’s not exactly an ace.

Both teams are more prone to hitting the under this season, but in their last three head-to-head meetings, they’ve gone over the run total, so our prediction is to ride that trend again.

Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (+100)

The post Rockies vs Brewers Predictions, Odds & Props (Aug. 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Wednesday’s are always fun because we get day games, with the first game of Wednesday’s MLB betting slate starting at 12:35 PM ET.

For our first pick, we will be heading to Cleveland and taking Kevin Gausman to go over 5.5 strikeouts against the Guardians.

MLB Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, August 9th

The Guardians don’t strikeout a lot, which is why this over/under is as low as it is, but at the same time 5.5 is still too low, as Gausman is one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the MLB.

So, we will gladly take advantage of this mis-priced line, albeit for -145 odds.

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MLB Player Prop #1: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts

I get that the Guardians are one of the least strikeout teams in the MLB, but Gausman has had 22 starts on the year, and he has gone over this number 17 times. That is a hit rate of 77%, and he has also recorded 6+ strikeouts in his last 7 games as well.

Kevin Gausman, Filthy Splitters. ✌️✌️

2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/faN2oRy6Lr

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 3, 2023

His advanced numbers are just ridiculous when it comes to strikeouts. As mentioned above, his K/inning is 1.34, which is in the 93rd percentile of all starting pitchers in the MLB.

Digging even deeper, he has a strikeout rate of 32.8%, which is the second-best in the MLB, only behind Spencer Strider. If K/9 is your preferred stat, well he is elite in that category as well, with a K/9 of 12.07, which is a career high for Gausman and also the second-best in the MLB once again to Strider.

Overall, 5.5 strikeouts is a number that is simply too low for a pitcher of Gausman’s caliber, but good news for us for our first pick of the day.

Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-145) 

MLB Player Prop #2: Graham Ashcraft Under 3.5 Strikeouts

For our first pick we are backing an elite strikeout pitcher, and with our second pick we will be doing the exact opposite- fading one of the worst strikeout pitchers in the MLB for plus-money odds.

Ashcraft went over this strikeout prop in his first four starts of the year, but since then he has only gone over in 5 of 16 starts. 3.5 is obviously a low number, but it’s tough to see him getting to 4+ strikeouts in this one.

For starters, he’s among the worst pitchers in all of baseball in terms of strikeout numbers. His K/inning is 0.72, which is in the 11th-percentile, his strikeout rate is 16.4%, which would be the sixth-worst in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. Pretty much any way you slice it, Ashcraft does not get guys to strikeout.

This Marlins team isn’t quite the same level as the Guardians in terms of how infrequently they strikeout, but they are still among the lowest teams. Their team strikeout rate is 21.3%, which is the seventh-lowest in the MLB, and in the past week that number is even lower, dropping to 20.9%.

Pick: Graham Ashcraft Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+132)

The post Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, August 9th, Including Strikeout Props for Kevin Gausman & Graham Ashcraft appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Both the Marlins (59-56, 25-32 away) and Reds (60-56, 29-30 home) have postseason aspirations. If they continue the current trajectory their on now however, playoff baseball will be nothing more than a pipe dream.

Miami and Cincy are each in the midst of a horrendous stretch, with the Marlins having dropped seven of nine outings, while the Reds have lost seven of eight.

They’ve split the first two games of this three-game set, and online sportsbooks are siding with the home team to claim a series victory in Wednesday’s MLB odds

Marlins vs Reds Odds

Cincinnati is currently a -125 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 10. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 pm ET at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH, with clear skies, 79 degree temperatures, and a 60 percent chance of showers in the forecast.

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Miami vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

Despite the Reds currently occupying a Wild Card berth, and the Marlins sitting just outside the playoff picture, neither team is considered a serious player in the World Series odds.

Cincinnati will give the ball to sophomore Graham Ashcraft on Wednesday, who’s been one of the team’s better starters over the last six weeks. Ashcraft has surrendered two runs or less in six of his past seven starts. He’s fresh off a season-high 8 innings in a loss to the Nationals, after blanking the mighty Dodgers in his previous outing.

Graham Ashcraft, Nasty 96mph Dead Zone Cutter. ☠️✂️ pic.twitter.com/2qscEWRNXc

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2023

The 25-year-old posted a 1.84 ERA in July, and has pitched at least 6 innings in all but one of his past seven starts. He was victorious in his only outing against Miami earlier this season, and has a solid track record against the Marlins regulars in the MLB starting lineups. Ashcraft has held current Miami batters to a .224 lifetime average, and just five extra-base hits in 49 at-bats.

Cueto vs Ashcraft Stats

Former Red Johnny Cueto meanwhile, will counter for the Marlins. Cueto is fresh off back-to-back shaky starts, surrendering four runs apiece to the Phillies and Tigers. He’s posted only one quality start in five appearances this season, and his been victimized by the long ball three times in his last 12 innings of work.

Cueto’s home run per 9 innings rate has never been higher than it is this year, while he’s surrendering hard hit balls at his highest mark since 2019. His fastball velocity is surprisingly the fastest it’s been since 2016, but the 37-year-old is generating called + swinging strikes at a below 24% clip for only the second time since 2011.

Marlins vs Reds Predictions

Fortunately for Marlins and under backers, Cueto is catching the Cincinnati lineup at precisely the right time. His former team has scored three runs or less in five of their past six contests, and are slashing .196/.267/.417 during that stretch.

TJ Friedl is the lone Reds regular hitting north of .250 over their past six games, with five of his teammates including Joey Votto and Spencer Steer, batting sub. 180.

Marlins vs Reds 2023 H2H Results

Not to be outdone, the Miami bats haven’t performed much better lately. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in seven of nine outings, batting .240 as a team along the way. It’s not all doom and gloom for the Marlins though, as Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been a major bright spot over the last week and a half.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Miami Marlins (11)
pic.twitter.com/LLPrOziW0h

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) August 8, 2023

Chisholm Jr. is slashing .375/.444/.875 during that timeframe, with a pair of home runs and three steals. Luis Arraez meanwhile, who flirted with .400 for most of the first half of the year, is in a funk. He’s mustered only one hit in his last nine at-bats, and is just 3-for-18 (.166 avg) against Cincinnati pitching this season, his worst mark against any NL club.

Pick: Under 10 (-108)

The post Marlins vs Reds Picks & Odds (Aug. 9) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

For the third straight series, the Chicago Cubs (58-55, 26-27 away) have dropped the opener, this time a decision Monday to the New York Mets (51-61, 27-23 home).

That’s about the only thing they’ve done wrong lately, as they chase down a Wild Card berth in the National League.

The loss was only Chicago’s fourth in the last 16, while New York snapped an ugly 6-game losing skid, but it’s likely too late to make a push for a playoff berth.

Game 2 of this series gets underway Tuesday (Aug 8) at 7:10pm ET from Citi Field in Queens, New York. You can watch the game live on MLB Network.

Cubs vs Mets Odds

The MLB odds have the visiting Cubs on the bounce back, listing them as -135 favorites on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 57.45%. The total is set at 9.5 runs, a figure these teams have cruised by in the last two meetings.

Chicago sits a game back of the Reds for the third and final Wild Card spot, while the Mets are a distant 7.5 games back, with five teams between themselves and Cincinnati.

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Probable Pitchers

It’s been a nice run for Jameson Taillon. The Cubs have won each of the last five games he’s started, and he’s taken the win in four of them to even his record at 6-6 on the year.

In his last start, he scattered seven hits across five innings, giving up two walks while striking out five in a 5-3 win over Cincinnati.

Jameson Taillon had it on Lock 👏:

5.0 IP | 5 K | 2 BB | 2 ER | 7 H pic.twitter.com/tlELPh4v0t

— Chicago Cubs 🐻🔥 (@ChiCubsCulture) August 4, 2023

In his last 30.1 innings (5 starts), Taillon has given up only seven earned runs, walking 10 batters against 23 strikeouts.

Only five Mets have faced Taillon, and none have more than four at-bats. Daniel Vogelback’s lone hit against him was a home run.

Taillon vs Carrasco Stats

New York counters with Carlos Carrasco, who has lost his last three starts, and got shelled in each of them.

He was lit up for eight hits and six earned runs — including two dingers — in a 9-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Carrasco also issued a walk and failed to record a strikeout.

Carrasco had lasted 2.1 innings in each of his last two starts, giving up eight hits and six earned runs in an 11-6 loss to the Nationals, then surrendering 10 hits and five earned runs in a 6-1 loss to the Red Sox.

He does, however, have a nice win under his belt against these Cubs in the last head-to-head. Carrasco picked up the win after going 6.2 innings, giving up five hits and a single earned run in a 10-1 bombing.

Cubs vs Mets Betting Prediction

The Cubs are eighth in total runs, putting up nearly 5.1 per contest, while the Mets rank 19th, scoring a shade under 4.4 runs a game.

But the tides turned Monday night in New York’s 11-2 win. Pete Alonso was a one-man wrecking crew, drilling a pair of home runs and driving in six runs.

Pete Alonso's 2nd homer of the game! pic.twitter.com/BWk9YtZ7Qk

— SNY (@SNYtv) August 8, 2023

Francisco Lindor had three hits and scored three runs, while Danny Mendick also hit a three-run bomb for the Mets, who scored a total of 14 runs in their previous six losses.

The Cubs might be just 27-27 following a loss, tied for 14th-best in baseball, but they’ve been solid bouncing back after dropping the opener.

In the second half of the season, they have dropped the opening game of a series five ties, but won the rematch each time.

Cubs vs Mets 2023 H2H Results

After dropping six in a row to the Cubbies, the Mets have now won two straight, scoring 21 runs in those two wins, and just 12 across those six L’s. They have’t been able to build momentum, though, going just 24-26 after a win.

With Taillon stacking up a nice set of starts, look for him to bring the New York bats back to average and deliver yet another Cubbies bounceback effort in Game 2 of a series.

Pick: Cubs ML (-135)

The post Cubs vs Mets Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (Aug 8) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Odds are posted for Tuesday’s MLB betting slate, and we have some absolute bangers to lock in.

For our first pick, we are heading to Detroit and taking Eduardo Rodriguez to go over 5.5 strikeouts against the Twins.

MLB Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, August 8th

As mentioned above, the Twins are literally THE heaviest strikeout team in the entire MLB. It’s rare that we can even get a good pitcher’s over/under as low as 5.5 against the Twins, and we will gladly take advantage of it.

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MLB Player Prop #1: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts

The rate that the Twins strikeout is just silly. Not only do they strikeout the most in the MLB, but even with the books knowing this, they still allow the opposing pitchers to go over their strikeout over/under at a high clip.

11 of the last 13 pitchers against the Twins have gone over their strikeout prop, including 5 of the last 6 lefties as well. Against LHP, the Twins don’t strikeout as much, but are still top-5 highest in the league at 25.5%.

Not only do the Twins strikeout a lot, but they also can’t hit lefties either. They have the fourth-worst offense in the MLB against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.

Let’s also not act like Rodriguez is some schmuck, either. He is a very good pitcher who has decent strikeout numbers. His strikeout rate is 25.5%, which would be 20th in the MLB if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He has an ERA of 2.96, with an expected ERA of 3.35, so he checks that box as well.

Eduardo Rodriguez's 2Ks in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/9pBEV3cNsf

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2023

So, even if Rodriguez doesn’t have his best stuff on Tuesday, he should still be able to last long enough in the game to get us to six strikeouts, cashing this over.

Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) 

MLB Player Prop #2: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Naturally, for our second play we had to go with a plus-money banger, this time backing Scherzer to get to 8+ K’s. He had a good start in his debut for the Rangers, and we are counting on that trend to continue in his next start.

Scherzer will be going up against the Athletics on Tuesday, and while nobody strikes out quite like the Twins, the A’s are close. They have a team strikeout rate of 25.3% against RHP, which is the third-worst in the MLB.

While Scherzer isn’t having the best year of his career, he also hasn’t been horrible. His ERA at 4.04 doesn’t look great, but he has an expected ERA of 3.52, which shows he is getting a little unlucky. Also, most importantly, he still has elite strikeout stuff.

He has a strikeout rate of 27.7%, which is the 10th-best in the MLB. 8 K’s is admittedly a lot, but he got to 9 in his last start, and now he has the benefit of going up against the A’s and their horrific offense.

Pick: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)

The post Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, August 8th, Including Strikeout Props for Eduardo Rodriguez & Max Scherzer appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

If you didn’t think the Chicago White Sox (44-68, 21-39 away) and Cleveland Guardians (54-57, 29-25 home) have had enough of each other, you didn’t see their brawl Saturday night.

The two teams close out their regular season series Sunday (Aug 6). Chicago is basically playing out the stretch, but they’d love nothing more than to sink Cleveland’s playoff hopes even deeper.

These two AL Central rivals kick off the Sunday slate, with opening pitch going at 12:05pm ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. You can watch the game live on Peacock.

White Sox vs Guardians Odds

The MLB odds have the host Guardians as -142 favorites on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 58.68%. The total has been set at nine runs.

Chicago had lost five straight before Friday’s 7-4 win, but all anyone will remember is the dustup. It happened in the sixth inning with the ChiSox up 5-0, when Jose Ramirez did not appreciate Tim Anderson standing over top of him as he slid into second base after an RBI double.

The two squared up, and Ramirez caught Anderson with a big right hand, sending the White Sox shortstop tumbling backward. Chaos ensued. Ramirez, Anderson and both managers were tossed.

The loss sent Chicago to 3.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central, and 7.5 back of the third and final Wild Card berth.

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Probable Pitchers

After a stellar outing last time out, rookie Jesse Scholtens will get another turn in the White Sox rotation, giving him his fourth start of the year.

He went a season-best six innings against the potent Texas Rangers, limiting them to three hits and just one earned run, walking just one and striking out six. He got no offensive help, though, and took the L in a 2-0 defeat.

Jose Ramirez and Tim Anderson started quite the brawl in Cleveland 👀

(via @NBCSWhiteSox)pic.twitter.com/i80OeXD2dF

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 6, 2023

Scholtens has pitched against Cleveland twice this season, both in relief. The most recent was July 29 in a 7-2 win. He worked an inning, giving up just one hit and striking out two.

On May 22, the righty went five innings, giving up two hits and one earned run, walking two and striking out one. He took the L in a 3-0 defeat.

Scholtens vs Curry Stats

Cleveland will also trot out a mostly-reliever in righty Xzavion Curry, who will be making just his fourth start of the season.

Curry is plenty familiar with the Guardians, having started against them on July 28, taking the L in a game Cleveland lost 3-0.

Xzavion Curry, Pretty 76mph Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/Nj7CxmXPQY

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2023

Curry lasted just three innings — he’s lasted exactly three innings in all three of his starts so far — giving up two hits and one earned run, while walking three. He got the start on just a days rest, having pitched an inning against the Royals the day prior.

Aside from that start, he’s appeared in relief in three other games against Chicago, going a total of 4.1 innings, giving up five hits, one earned run, walking one and striking out five.

White Sox vs Guardians Betting Prediction

Perhaps a better record against the lowly White Sox — who’ve taken seven of 12 so far this series — and the Guardians might actually be ahead of the Twins in the Central.

Alas, they’ll have to hope for taking the rubber match in this three-game set. Cleveland has been a pretty solid bounce back team, going 31-25 following a loss. That’s a top-10 figure, but they’re also tied with three other teams for the most wins in this category.

White Sox vs Guardians 2023 H2H Results

Then again, the under has gone 2-7-1 in the last 10 head-to-heads, and Curry figures to keep that intact. He’s got a 2.90 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the year, and has held the ChiSox to just two runs in 7.1 innings.

While that’s enticing, we’ll roll with the team that has much to play for, against the team with the 3rd-worst road mark in the AL.

Pick: Guardians ML (-142)

The post White Sox vs Guardians Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers (Aug. 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

We have a star-studded matchup on our hands for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN as the Los Angeles Dodgers (63-45, 29-25 away) visit the San Diego Padres (54-56, 25-30 home) for the finale of a three-game series between the National League West foes. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm ET at Petco Park.

Lance Lynn gets the ball in his first start for the Dodgers since coming over from the White Sox at the trade deadline. The Padres, meanwhile, send Rich Hill to the hill for his debut after they acquired him from the Pirates.

Dodgers vs Padres Odds

The first-place Dodgers sit as the -120 favorite for the rubber match. San Diego comes back at +100. LA has won six in a row against their rivals ahead of Saturday’s matchup.

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Los Angeles vs San Diego Probable Pitchers

Lynn has been pretty atrocious in 2023 after a Cy Young campaign only two years ago. Perhaps a change of scenery could do the trick for the veteran, who will get every opportunity to be an important piece for the Dodgers. In 22 starts, he’s 7-9 with a 6.32 ERA. The biggest problem? He’s allowed a whopping 31 home runs.

"I was in a pretty good spot there until the last inning but all in all we won the game, that's the No. 1 goal."
Lance Lynn (7 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks) on his outing. pic.twitter.com/1upOvvBpTs

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) August 2, 2023

That being said, Lynn had a good debut for his new ball club. He tossed seven innings on August 1st, surrendering three earned runs on five hits while striking out seven against the Oakland Athletics. Lynn owns a lifetime 2.73 ERA against the Padres. Certainly respectable.

Lynn vs Hill Stats

The 43-year-old Hill is still trucking along and now gets the opportunity to help the Padres make a Wild Card push. Considering how old he is, the numbers aren’t bad. He’s 7-10 with a 4.77 ERA, striking out 104 in 119 frames while issuing 47 free passes.

Hill put together a pair of decent outings before the trade, allowing just two earned runs in back-to-back starts to San Diego and Philadelphia. Although he’s yet to face the Dodgers this season, he’s extremely familiar with them, compiling a 3.16 ERA in over 300 innings.

Dodgers Finding Their Stride

Los Angeles made no shortage of moves at the deadline to strengthen their roster, but to be honest, they were already getting hot. The Dodgers have won four straight and continue to produce at the plate, scoring 5.7 runs per game. That ranks second in the Majors. They’ve also slugged 175 homers.

LAD vs SD – Last 10 Games

Leading the way is Freddie Freeman, who is batting .338 with 22 home runs. Mookie Betts is also raking, slashing .284 with 29 long balls. Bringing in Lynn and Ryan Yarborough should help strengthen the staff, while Amed Rosario gives them more infield depth as well.

Can The Padres Make a Push?

It’s no secret San Diego has disappointed in ’23. However, they have improved a bit since the All-Star break and now sit just two games below .500 on the year at 54-56. That puts them only 3.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Not all is lost yet.

X gon' get ya out 🙅#BringTheGold pic.twitter.com/KRc7idv0cB

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 5, 2023

Although bringing in Hill is a nice addition to the rotation, pitching isn’t the problem. Their offense must wake up in a big way and thankfully, it has a bit since the All-Star festivities in Seattle. The Padres are hitting .264 in the second half, with Juan Soto and Ha-Seong Kim both batting over .300 in the 20 games thus far.

Dodgers vs Padres Picks

Recent matchups clearly favor the Dodgers. That’s enough for me to ride that LA moneyline here.

Pick: Dodgers moneyline (-120)

The post Dodgers vs Padres Picks & Odds for Sunday Night Baseball (Aug. 6) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Entering the first game of their weekend set on Friday, both the Braves (70-37, 33-17 away) and Cubs (55-54, 30-28 home) were playing better than anyone in baseball. After Game 1 of their three-game set, it’s clear one team is a contender, while the other is a pretender.

Atlanta smoked Chicago 8-0 at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, for their sixth win in their last seven games. They lead MLB in winning percentage, and online sportsbooks expect another triumphant performance over the Cubs in Saturday’s MLB odds.

Braves vs Cubs Odds

Atlanta is currently a -155 moneyline favorite, in a contest without a total as of Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET, with a sun-cloud mix, a 40 percent chance of showers, and 82 degree temperatures in the forecast.

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Braves vs Cubs Probable Pitchers

The Braves enter play as the favorite in the World Series odds, just ahead of the Dodgers and Astros. They got six shutout innings from Max Fried on Friday in his return to the bigs, and will hope for a similar performance from Saturday’s starter Bryce Elder.

The 24-year-old is fresh off back-to-back gems, shutting down the Brewers on both occasions. He allowed just eight hits and three runs total over 13 innings, earning a win and a no-decision in a couple Atlanta victories. Elder’s previous two starts were mess, getting smacked around by the D-Backs and Rays, but aside from those two outings, his last six weeks of work has been very impressive.

Games started by Braves pitchers:

Spencer Strider 21
Bryce Elder 21
Charlie Morton 20
Jared Shuster 9
4 guys with 5
2 guys with 3
5 guys with 1

The Braves have really used a 3-man rotation this season and are 66-36.

— Tripp Howell (@PortCityTH) July 30, 2023

He’s allowed two or fewer runs six times during that stretch, and has actually performed better in 2023 as a visitor than at home. Elder owns a 2.85 ERA, and .221 opponent batting average on the road, as opposed to a 3.44 ERA and .253 OBA mark in his own park.

Elder vs Assad Stats

Chicago meanwhile, will turn to Javier Assad to try and slow down the red-hot Braves lineup. Atlanta leads MLB in home runs, total bases, slugging percentage and OPS, and are loaded from the lead-off spot all the way down the order.

Assad has been primarily used as a reliever in his brief two-year career, but is being thrust into a starting role thanks to injuries to the Cubs staff. He’s never faced any of the Braves regulars in the MLB starting lineups, and he’ll need to demonstrate better control if he’s going to last long against them.

Assad is averaging nearly a walk every 2 innings this season, and the last thing you want to do is put men on base versus Atlanta.

Atlanta vs Chicago Predictions

The long ball has been Atlanta’s biggest weapon over the last week and a half, and that was the case again on Friday. The Braves cranked three home runs off Cubs pitching, which accounted for four of their eight runs. Atlanta has now gone deep a whopping 22 times in their last eight games, and are currently on a historic pace.

They’ve blasted 209 homers in 107 games, putting them on pace for 316 dingers this season. The major-league record is currently held by the 2019 Twins, who hit 307 homers.

He didn’t go deep on Friday, but NL MVP odds favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. continued to torment enemy pitchers. The 25-year-old went 3-for-5 with an RBI, and a run scored, and is now hitting north of .500, with a 1.500 OPS in his last eight contests.

Boys scoring faster than we can post fr#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/ZQxzEenp9C

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 4, 2023

Teammate Austin Riley remained hot as well, with a home run to extend his hitting streak to nine games, and both are in line for a big day on Saturday. Riley is hitting .370 during his streak, with four home runs and seven RBI.

As for the Chicago bats, all they could muster was four hits in the series opener. The team struck out 11 times versus Fried and company, but big strikeout numbers haven’t plagued this team since the All-Star Break.

They’re whiffing at just a 21% rate since the break, and given the way they were swinging the bat prior to Friday, and Elder’s mediocre K numbers, we shouldn’t expect too many strikeouts for the Braves righty. Elder has exceeded three only once in his last five starts, and boasts a minuscule 6.6 K/9 rate in 2023.

Braves vs Cubs 2023 H2H Results

Even after getting blanked on Friday, Chicago is still averaging over seven runs per game in their last 21 contests. They’re batting north of .300 as a team during that stretch, with 36 home runs and 26 steals.

Picks:

• Braves Moneyline (-155)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 1.5 Bases (-129)
• Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Bases (-102)
• Bryce Elder Under 3.5 K’s (-107)

The post Braves vs Cubs Picks, Odds & Props to Target (Aug. 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Justin Verlander makes his return to the Houston Astros as they visit the New York Yankees at 1:05pm ET Saturday in the third game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.

The Astros (63-48, 32-23 road) downed the Yankees 7-3 on Friday night for their fourth win in their last five games. New York (57-53, 34-27 home) has lost four of five.

MLB Network will televise the game.

Astros vs Yankees Odds

The Astros are -135 favorites on the moneyline over the Yankees on Saturday in the MLB odds, giving them a 57.45% implied win probability. Houston has +800 World Series championship odds and New York is listed at +2500.

It should be a nice day in the Bronx with the weather forecast calling for mostly sunny skies, a high of 83 and wind from the north at 6 mph.

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Astros vs Yankees Probable Pitchers

Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.15) is expected to make his first start for the Astros since being acquired from the New York Mets in a trade and face left-hander Nestor Cortes (5-2, 5.16), who is expected to be activated from the injured list. Verlander will be pitching on five days of rest and Cortes on seven.

Verlander vs Cortes Stats

Verlander returns to the Astros, where he pitched from 2017-22 and won two World Series and two American League Cy Young Awards.

He won each of his last three starts with the Mets while compiling a 0.93 ERA. He beat the Washington Nationals last Sunday in New York, giving up one run and five hits in 5.1 innings while striking out five and walking one for his 250th career victory.

This will be Verlander’s 35th career start against the Yankees. He is 15-8 with a 3.07 ERA.

Verlander is 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA in seven road starts this season and has a 2-1 record and 1.56 ERA in three starts during the day. The Mets were 8-8 when Verlander started, and he had eight quality starts in 16 outings.

Cortes has been on the IL since May 31 with a left rotator cuff strain. He made a rehab start last Friday for Double-A Somerset and pitched four scoreless innings against Bowie, allowing two hits with five strikeouts and one walk.

Nestor Cortes was NASTY in his second rehab start😤

4️⃣ IP | 0️⃣ R | 2️⃣ H | 5️⃣ K pic.twitter.com/Xr1YPecLW0

— Somerset Patriots (@SOMPatriots) July 29, 2023

In his last three starts before being placed on the IL, Cortes was 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA. He has a 1-1 lifetime record versus the Astros with an 8.66 ERA in seven games (four starts).

Cortes is 2-0 with a 4.86 ERA in six starts at Yankee Stadium this season and 2-1 with a 7.97 ERA in four starts in day games. He has notched just three quality starts in 11 turns, but the Yankees are 7-4 when he toes the slab.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is 3-for-6 with a home run off Cortes. However, catcher Martin Maldonado, second baseman Jose Altuve and right fielder Kyle Tucker are all 1-for-6. Tucker’s American League MVP odds are +8500.

Yankees third baseman DJ LeMahieu is 6-for-20 (.300) with a double and homer off Verlander but designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is 2-for-16 (.125) with two home runs and eight strikeouts and right fielder Aaron Judge is 2-for-14 (.143) with one longball.

Astros vs Yankees Betting Outlook

Yainer Diaz hit a three-run home run in the first inning to spark the Astros over the Yankees 7-3 on Friday night. Yordan Alvarez also connected for Houston.

Alvarez, Altuve and Jeremy Pena each had three hits.

Stros score first. pic.twitter.com/0hLdlRGW7C

— Houston Astros (@astros) August 4, 2023

The Yankees’ runs came on solo home runs by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jake Bauers and Stanton. Bauers and LeMahieu had two hits each.

Astros vs Yankees Last 10 Games

The Astros are 16-12 against the Yankees since 2019, including winning the 2019 American League Championship Series in six games and sweeping the 2021 ALCS in four games.

Astros vs Yankees Prediction

Verlander had been pitching great for the Mets recently and it’s hard to imagine he won’t come up with a gem in his return to the Astros. Throw in some expected rustiness from Cortes and the Astros are the way to go.

Pick: Astros ML (-135)

Season Record: 37-15 (+19.0 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 0-1 (-1.0 unit) same-game parlays; 2-2 (+3.6) player props; 43-21’ (+22.6 units) overall.

The post Astros vs Yankees Odds, Lines & Picks (Aug. 5) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.