NFL Most Receiving Yards: Odds Favor Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase
- Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson is the +550 favorite to lead the NFL in receiving yardage during the 2023 season
- Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals is the +600 second betting choice in the most receiving yards odds
- In 2022, Jefferson led the NFL in receiving yards (1,809) and receptions (184)
Looking for a likely leader in NFL most receiving yards statline for the 2023 season, it’s hard to look past Justin Jefferson. After all, the Minnesota Vikings wideout was atop the league last season in both receiving yards (1,809) and receptions (189).
However, looking back at recent NFL history, it would appear that history seldom repeats itself when it comes to the NFL leader in reception yardage.
The last player to top this department in successive seasons was Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions in 2011-12.
Oddsmakers are confident in Jefferson’s ability to defeat this trend. He’s set as the +550 favorite to lead the NFL in most receiving yards in 2023/24.
NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson (Vikings) | +550 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) | +600 |
| Cooper Kupp (Rams) | +800 |
| Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) | +900 |
| Davante Adams (Raiders) | +1200 |
| Garrett Wilson (Jets) | +2000 |
| Stefon Diggs (Bills) | +2000 |
| Travis Kelce (Chiefs) | +2200 |
| CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) | +2200 |
| AJ Brown (Eagles) | +2500 |
| Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) | +3000 |
| Amon-Ra St Brown (Lions) | +3500 |
| DK Metcalf (Seahawks) | +3500 |
| Chris Olave (Saints) | +3500 |
| DeVonta Smith (Eagles) | +4500 |
| Mike Williams (Chargers) | +4500 |
| Jerry Jeudy (Broncos) | +4500 |
| DJ Moore (Bears) | +5000 |
| Amari Cooper (Browns) | +5000 |
| Christian Watson (Packers) | +5000 |
| Terry McLaurin (Commanders) | +5000 |
| Deebo Samuel (49ers) | +5000 |
| Deandre Hopkins (Titans) | +5000 |
| Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) | +5000 |
Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals is the second betting choice in this betting market at +600. Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams (+800) and Tyreek Hill (+900) of the Miami Dolphins, the former the 2021 NFL receiving yardage champion, are also offered at odds shorter than +1000.
At a betting line of +10000, Jefferson, Chase and Kupp offer the shortest lines of any wide receivers in the NFL MVP odds.
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Is It Wise to Bet Against Jefferson?
In each of his three NFL seasons, Jefferson has taken quantum leaps forward in terms of productivity. He went for 1,400 yards in receptions as a rookie in 2020 and increased that number to 1,616 yards in 2021.
Justin Jefferson’s routes are something ELSE 😳
DK Metcalf recently said he believes Jefferson is the “best” WR in the NFL right now.
Jefferson is currently off to the most dominant three year start for a WR in NFL history.
Jefferson already shattered Randy Moss’s single… pic.twitter.com/rVf0uUDWya
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) July 15, 2023
Jefferson has also seen significant increases in catches each season, jumping from 88 as a rookie to 108 in his sophomore campaign. He’s led the NFL in yards per touch in each of the past two seasons. His 1,809 receiving yards in 2022 was a Vikings single-season record.
Last season, Jefferson’s reception yards per game of 106.4 was also an NFL best. It helped to earn him recognition as AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Should You Chase Ja’Marr?
Making a case for Chase to be upsetting his old LSU teammate Jefferson for the title can be based on the fact that Chase wound up over 1,000 yards in receptions despite missing five games through injury. His 1,046 yards in pass catches would place the Bengals wideout 17th in the NFL.
Ja'Marr Chase is putting in the work 😤
🎥: @Bengals / Tim Rileypic.twitter.com/6H0cYZt7s6
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) July 14, 2023
However, digging a little deeper into Chase’s receiving analytics reveals numbers suggesting that he might not be the best bet for the NFL most receiving yards. For example, his yards per receptions of 12.0 was only good enough for 55th overall in the NFL. And his yards per target of 7.9 was just 59th in the league.
Olave Among Those Offering Value In Receiving Yards Odds
Seeking out value plays in the NFL receiving yards odds, Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints might be a sound place to begin. During his rookie season, Olave was good for 1,042 yards, even though he started only nine of 17 games and played in just 15.
He was 14th in the NFL in yards per reception (14.5). The arrival of perennial stats man Derek Carr to play QB for the Saints can only serve to boost Olave’s numbers.
Hill is always in contention for this crown. He was second last year (1,709 yards) and has finished in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons.
NFL Receiving Yards Leaders
| Year | Player (Team) | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson (Vikings) | 1,809 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp (Rams) | 1,947 |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs (Bills) | 1,535 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas (Saints) | 1,725 |
| 2018 | Julio Jones (Falcons) | 1,677 |
Adams was second in 2020 and 2021, but plummeted to ninth last season in his debut campaign with the Raiders. The uncertainty at the QB position in Las Vegas makes him an unlikely contender.
Likewise, the Rams are a team in regression, so Kupp isn’t a wise wager.
Looking at all the options, you’ll just keep coming back to Jefferson. He’s a generational receiver and you shouldn’t bet against him in the most receiving yards odds.
NFL most Receiving Yards Pick: Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +550.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
